8 hours Ago By Brandon Sun
If these are the numbers heading into Monday’s election, Manitobans may see a lot less change on Monday night than they were led to expect. Read this article for free: Already have an account? As we navigate through unprecedented times, our journalists are working harder than ever to bring you the latest local updates to keep you safe and informed. Now, more than ever, we need your support.
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If these are the numbers heading into Monday’s election, Manitobans may see a lot less change on Monday night than they were led to expect. Read unlimited articles for free today: Already have an account? Opinion If these are the numbers heading into Monday’s election, Manitobans may see a lot less change on Monday night than they were led to expect. A new poll conducted by Probe Research for our sister paper, the Winnipeg Free Press, reveals a significant shift in support for the various parties compared to several months ago.
It is unclear what impact that shift will ultimately have on election results in Manitoba’s ridings, however. The poll asked Manitobans which party’s candidate they were most likely to support in Monday’s federal election. It found that 43 per cent of respondents were most likely to vote for a Liberal candidate, compared to 40 per cent who were likely to vote for a Conservative candidate.
Just 15 per cent said they were most likely to vote for a New Democrat candidate. In Winnipeg, the Liberals hold a strong 50 per cent to 32 per cent lead over the Tories, with the NDP at 16 per cent. The numbers are far different outside Winnipeg, however, with the Tories leading the Liberals by a 54 to 32 margin.
The NDP are far back at just 12 per cent. While the poll found that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were perceived by respondents as the best choice to address a number of issues, including the overall cost of living, Mark Carney and the Liberals were perceived to be most effective on the issue of greatest concern to respondents: Canada-U.S.
relations, including tariffs. With all of that information, how is it likely to impact the outcome in Manitoba’s 14 ridings on Monday night? The answer is that it is unlikely to have much impact at all. The Liberals already hold four of the eight seats in Winnipeg — Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre and Winnipeg North — so the party’s high poll numbers will only increase the candidates’ margins of victory in those ridings.
The new numbers point to a likely Liberal win in Winnipeg West, where Doug Eyolfson is working to regain the seat after losing it by just 460 votes in 2021, but the party will be hard-pressed to defeat Conservative incumbent Raquel Dancho in the Kildonan-St.Paul riding. The same goes for the Winnipeg Centre and Elmwood-Transcona ridings, where the revived support for the NDP may be sufficient to enable the party to retain those long-held seats.
Outside the Perimeter, the overwhelming support for the Conservatives suggests the Tories have little to fear in the Brandon-Souris, Riding Mountain, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher and Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman ridings. The story is different for the NDP in the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding, however, which is currently held by longtime MP Niki Ashton. The rise in Liberal support, the decline in support for the NDP and the long history of low voter turnout in that riding combine to create the realistic possibility of a win by Liberal Rebecca Chartrand, who narrowly lost to Ashton in the 2015 election.
If those are the results, the Liberals will improve from four seats to six, while the Tories will fall from seven seats to six, and the NDP will drop from three seats to two — and that’s the best-case scenario for the Liberals. Such an outcome would be far from the “red wave” of change that many pundits and the latest Probe poll numbers suggest may occur, but it reflects the deep level of political polarization that continues to exist in our province. It also points to the impact that even a modest improvement in support for the NDP could have on the results in many ridings, and ultimately on the nationwide results in Monday’s election.
If that improvement is real and can be sustained by the NDP through Monday, the outcome of this election may be far closer than many expect. Advertisement Advertisement.
