1 week Ago
A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to develop into a tropical storm by Monday before moving toward Louisiana's coast, where it could make landfall as a hurricane sometime within the coming week, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. As of Sunday afternoon, hurricane forecasters said the system lacked well-defined circulation but was producing sustained wind speeds of 50 mph. The system is forecast to reach hurricane strength near the middle of the week before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast, where it could bring life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds near the border of Texas and Louisiana beginning Tuesday night.
Heavy rain and flash flooding are expected from the coast of northeast Mexico into coastal Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. It's still too early to tell exactly where the storm will land and how quickly it will intensify as it moves through the Gulf, forecasters said Sunday afternoon. Large shifts in the forecast are still possible until the system develops a more defined center.
Jay Grymes, a state climatologist with the LSU Ag Center, said in a Sunday morning update that "planning for a 'Category 1' would be prudent." A tropical storm watch was issued Sunday for parts of Mexico from Barra del Tordo north to the mouth of the Rio Grande. If it forms, the system would become the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and would be named Francine.
What to expect in Louisiana While it's still unclear how strong the storm will be when it reaches Louisiana, forecasters are confident the Bayou State will see heavy rain this coming week, National Weather Service forecasters said in a Sunday afternoon briefing. Widespread rainfall totals of between 4 to 6 inches are forecast in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi from early Tuesday to Friday morning, according to the NOAA. The most rain is expected Wednesday and early Thursday.
With the region's soils saturated from recent heavy rains, the coming showers could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas or flash flooding. Area rivers are also likely to rise, forecasters said. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible.
Some low lying roads, lots and access routes could be flooded during the high tide, with the greatest impacts expected on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Gusty winds will be possible mainly on Wednesday, with the strength of these winds highly dependent on the eventual track and intensity of the storm, forecasters said. A few tornadoes could be possible Wednesday through early Thursday.
Other disturbances in the Atlantic National Hurricane Center forecasters were tracking two other disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean Sunday that also have a chance of forming next week. An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continued to show signs of organization Sunday afternoon, hurricane forecasters said. Forecasters said a tropical depression or storm could form sometime early in the coming week as the system moves west.
As of 4 p.m. Sunday, the system had a 70% chance of forming within the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A trough of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands was also producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning. Forecasters said the system is expected to move very little over the next couple of days but that it could gradually develop later in the week as it moves west-northwest. That system had a 50% chance of forming within the next week as of Sunday, forecasters said.
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