1 week Ago
Former President Donald Trump 's favorable election odds on a popular betting website may have been "manipulated" by a small group, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal . Trump's odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month have received a massive boost in recent weeks on Polymarket, an online betting platform that was funded partly by longtime Trump backer Peter Thiel . Polymarket gave Trump a 60 percent chance of winning on Friday, while Harris was given a 40 percent chance.
Although polls continue to show Harris slightly ahead or the race neck-and-neck, the contest was last tied on Polymarket October 4. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that "the surge might be a mirage" created by just four mysterious accounts that have recently spent around $30 million betting on Trump. Polymarket odds are dictated by so-called "collective wisdom" rather than outside factors like polling data.
Miguel Morel, CEO of crypto analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, reportedly said that there was a "strong reason to believe" that all four Polymarket accounts that are betting heavily on Trump "are the same entity." The accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—reportedly created between June and earlier this month, were all funded using the same cryptocurrency exchange and all have similar betting patterns. Political analyst Christopher Gerlacher told The Daily Beast in an article published on Friday that "Polymarket's spike was almost certainly a case of market manipulation.
" Rajiv Sethi—an economist who coauthored a paper that concluded $7 million in bets placed on GOP Senator Mitt Romney by a single person before the 2012 presidential election were attempted manipulation—had similar thoughts on the Polymarket Trump bets. "If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it," Sethi told The Wall Street Journal. Crypto investor Adam Cochran told the newspaper that the Trump Polymarket surge could be part of an attempt to make potential future false claims of a "stolen" election appear more plausible if Trump loses to Harris next month.
Political strategist Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune that he believes the Trump bets are part of "a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race." "A central argument has emerged in the closing weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness," Bonier said. "Donald Trump's persona, and therefore his support from voters, relies on being seen as strong.
But if the public perception is that he will lose, that all falls apart." According to The Wall Street Journal, "a person familiar with the matter" said that Polymarket was investigating the potential manipulation of presidential betting "with the assistance of outside experts." Newsweek reached out for comment to Polymarket via email on Friday night.
While Trump's recently improved odds could be the result of market manipulation, the four accounts could also belong to a person or people who placed the bets under the genuine belief that the former president will win in November. The bets also could have been placed as a hedge against a Harris loss by a person or people who would financially benefit if Trump is defeated. Sethi speculated in a Substack post earlier this month that the Fredi9999 account, which had bet around $13.
8 million on a Trump win as of Friday, could belong to "someone with deep pockets who firmly believes that Trump will win the Rust Belt and the election with it." "Alternatively, it could be someone who wants to have a price impact and make Trump appear to have better prospects than the market would otherwise suggest, in the expectation that this will boost morale and keep donations and volunteer efforts flowing," he added..
