4 days Ago
Postseason basketball is HERE! Tuesday night kicks off the NBA’s play-in tournament, as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern and Western Conferences is on the line. In the East, the Atlanta Hawks are set as underdogs on the road against the Orlando Magic, as the two division rivals battle for a chance to face the defending champion Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs.
In the West, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies will renew their rivalry from the playoffs a few seasons ago, and oddsmakers have the No. 7-seeded Warriors favored at home to advance to face the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. There are a ton of ways to bet on this play-in tournament action from sides to total to player props – and yours truly has a future on Golden State to make the playoffs (from before the season) on the line over the next few days.
After finishing the regular season (including win total futures) just short of the green, the playoffs will be crucial to have a winning season in the NBA. As always, I’ll be betting on the action every day throughout the playoffs, including the play-in tournament. Here’s my favorite picks for Tuesday night’s action.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date 2024-25 season record: 217-206-4 (-0.65 units) OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1227-1151-26 (+37.44 units) Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included).
You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here . NBA Best Bets Today Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Golden State Warriors -7 (-110) vs.
Memphis Grizzlies – 0.5 unit Steph Curry OVER 5.5 Assists (-145) Paolo Banchero OVER 29.
5 Points (-110) Even though the Warriors went to overtime in Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, I’m buying them at home against this Grizzlies team that has not played well in the second half of the 2024-25 season. Memphis’ collapse over the last few months has been hard to watch, and it simply hasn’t beaten any good teams since February. Overall, Memphis is just 14-25 straight up against teams that are over .
500 this season, and it has just two wins over teams that are over .500 since early February, failing to beat a single Western Conference team that is over .500 since January.
Plus, since the All-Star break, these teams are going two different ways. While the Warriors didn’t do enough to earn a playoff spot outright, they are still 20-7 since the All-Star break and have the third-best net rating in the NBA during that stretch. On the flip side, Memphis went just 12-16 after the break and finished 17th in net rating during that stretch.
Ja Morant has been playing at a high level since returning from injury, but I’m not sure that he alone will be enough for the Grizzlies to pull off this upset. Memphis has fallen off a cliff defensively since the break (18th in defensive rating), and it ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in effective field goal percentage over that stretch. With Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green all on the other side, Golden State has too much high-stakes playoff experience for me to look the other way in this game.
It’s not the most conventional way to bet on Golden State’s star guard, but I think Curry is a steal in the prop market on Tuesday night. The two-time league MVP finished the regular season averaging 6.0 assists per game, and he picked up eight dimes in his most recent matchup with Memphis.
The Grizzlies love to push the pace – which leads to a ton of extra possessions on both sides – and they rank just 20th in the NBA in opponent assists per game. For his career, Curry is averaging 6.2 assists per game in the playoffs, and I expect him to play pretty heavy minutes on Tuesday night.
He’s also picked up at least six assists in seven of his last 10 games. One of the usage kings of the playoffs last season, Magic forward Paolo Banchero, should be in line for a massive workload on Tuesday night. Banchero has dominated the Hawks this season, scoring 31, 33, and 36 points in his three meetings against them.
I’m buying him to clear the 30-point mark again tonight. Atlanta ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in opponent points per game, so it’s not surprising to see Banchero thriving on the offensive end in this matchup. Not only that, but the Magic forward had 30 or more points in 10 of his last 19 games (since the start of March) to close the regular season, averaging 29.
1 points per game over that stretch. In the playoffs last season, Banchero averaged 21.3 shots per game in a seven-game series against Cleveland.
If he’s relied on this much in the play-in tournament, he should be in the mix for a 30-point showing. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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