3 hours Ago By Firstpost
When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 (the war first commenced in 2014), the conflict pundits predicted the capitulation of Kiev in a week or two. Contrarily, the unhinged war just entered the fourth winter, having completed 1,000 days on November 19, 2024. Worse, it is on course for more dangerous uncharted territory with the most recent action of Joe Biden, the outgoing president of the US, and the consequent retaliatory decree of Russian President Vladmir Putin.
Unknown Dangerous Path During his election campaign, Donald Trump had promised to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in one day, that too even before formally taking over as the 47th president of the United States of America. But Joe Biden, in the closing days of his presidency, has other ideas. He has suddenly swung into action, reversing a key past decision that has sent the world into a tizzy and has pushed the already most brutal, deadliest, and largest conflict in Europe since World War II into an unknown, dangerous path.
Fox-Trot Tap Dance Here is the sneak preview of the belligerent fox-trot tap dance by Biden and Putin: One, Washington empowers Ukraine to use long-range ballistic missiles fearing substantial reduction or complete withdrawal of the military assistance to Ukraine by incoming American President Trump, in an abrupt departure in US policy. Joe Biden, a couple of days before the war turned 1,000 days, permitted Ukraine the use of long-range ballistic missiles, named the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, in its war with Russia. Earlier, Washington had denied Kiev, since the first year of the war, the authorisation to use ATACMS outside its own borders.
Various reports confirm that on November 19, the 1000th day of the war, Ukraine fired six US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia’s Bryansk region. On Sunday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted to the news, telling audaciously, “ Such things are not announced; missiles speak for themselves ”. Reacting to the above development, the Kremlin warned on Monday that the decision of the US to authorise Ukraine to use the ATACMS to strike deeper inside Russia adds “fuel to the fire”.
Two, Moscow retaliates in style. As a direct response to the above-mentioned crying foul, Russia has sent the world in a tailspin with a decree signed by the Russian president lowering the threshold of the use of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and amending its doctrine of use of nuclear arms. The new doctrine, published Tuesday on the Kremlin website, differs from the previous 2020 iteration in at least three key ways that show how Putin just upped the ante of using the nuclear arsenal to deter the United States from further supporting Ukraine.
First, the new doctrine empowers Russia to use nuclear weapons against a nuclear-armed country even if it does not directly attack Russia but merely supports one by a non-nuclear country. This is a clear warning to America and other nuclear-armed backers of Ukraine in the war. Russia’s previous nuclear doctrine focused on responding to attacks on Russia, nuclear-armed countries, and alliances.
Second, the new doctrine lowers the threshold at which Russia could consider nuclear use in response to an attack with conventional weapons. The earlier 2020 doctrine said such an attack must threaten the “very existence of the Russian state”, while the new one puts that threshold at a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty. Third, as per the new doctrine, aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is branded as their joint attack, empowering Russia to resort to the use of the nuclear weapon.
Putin, in a televised speech, just said that Russia had employed a medium-range “non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic” missile dubbed “Oreshnik” to strike a military factory in Ukraine’s eastern city of Dnipro in response to the Biden administration’s latest decision authorising Ukraine to fire US-made ATACMS missiles, with a range of up to 190 miles, into Russia as part of the ongoing war. Russia’s employment of the latest lethal and novel firepower—and its threat of more to come—must be seen as a moment of heightened uncertainty ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Advantage to Putin The recent push of the US, Britain, and France (only Germany is holding up) to prop up Ukraine comes at a time when Russian forces—already in control of more than 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory—are advancing resolutely on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv struggles with recruitment and morale of its forces.
Contrarily, the Russian forces assault is focusing on quickly seizing the two easternmost regions of Ukraine, Luhansk and Donetsk, along with fast-capturing the last Ukrainian stronghold in the southern Donetsk region, Kurakhove, and opening a path to attack the strategic city of Pokrovsk from the south. And strategically speaking, in geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, already strongly backed by China, is making gains. Two such events were his recent telephonic talk with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany that broke two years of diplomatic isolation and the election of Donald Trump as the president-elect of the United States.
The above raises the distinct possibility of the end of the war, that too on Putin’s terms, without ceding an inch of Ukrainian territory already occupied by Russia. Give and Take - Détente Time It is time for Kiev to accept the obvious: it cannot continue to bleed as a bulwark and pawn of Western powers. The only victors in the long, treacherous war have been the American and European defence equipment manufacturers with their bulging profit.
As regards Ukraine, it has suffered humongous damage in 1,000 days of war. The country also faces a cold reality: with Trump on the way and his declared hostility towards NATO and conviction to end the Ukraine war swiftly, the writing on the wall for Kiev is that Ukraine cannot win a war, it already lost . It is give and take, the détente time.
Millions driven out of home: Because of heavy shelling and fighting, nearly 4 million Ukrainians have been driven from their homes and are internally displaced, and 6.8 million have crossed into neighbouring countries in the region, including Poland, Hungary, Moldova, or other countries globally. Armed forces casualties: A recent Wall Street Journal report quoting confidential Ukrainian sources from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000.
Civilian casualties: By October 31, 2024, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) had recorded 39,081 civilian casualties in Ukraine since February 24, 2022. As many as 12,162 killed and 26,919 injured, but they said they believe the real number is much higher. Territorial loss: As per a recent AFP analysis, the Russian army advanced 478 square kilometres into Ukrainian territory in October 2024, a record since March 2022 in the first weeks of the war.
It has already captured more than 20 per cent of the Ukrainian territory. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000. The writing on the wall is clear.
Russia shall never accept Ukraine being an aspiring European Union and NATO member and ally of Western powers. Historically a part of the USSR, Ukraine must accept its legacy and deep social and cultural compact with Russia. An honourable armistice and accepting its existential reality have hope of Ukraine retrieving at least part, if not all, of its territory lost.
It will also save scores of innocent lives. The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios.
He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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