Oscars 2025: How the race could shape up, based on film festivals

The battle played out at fancy parties and premieres in Venice, Toronto and Telluride.

featured-image

The battle to win over Academy Awards voters played out at fancy parties and splashy premieres at international film festivals in Venice, Toronto and Telluride. The 97th Academy Awards are months away, but the race is already on. This fall stands in contrast to last year’s empty red carpets – due to the Hollywood writers and actors’ strikes – as studios launch their biggest awards contenders, while also scrambling to remind voters of splashy titles that debuted earlier in the year.

The latest challengers screened in recent weeks at international film festivals in Venice and Toronto (TIFF), where Washington Post reporters were on the ground. Without a Barbenheimer juggernaut sucking up all the oxygen, it feels like this year’s race is so up in the air that no one knows which big-budget studio fare or indie darlings might make the cut for up to 10 best picture slots. In Europe, early favourites such as Pedro Almodóvar’s droll euthanasia drama The Room Next Door , which casts Tilda Swinton opposite Julianne Moore, and Pablo Larraín’s Maria , a biopic starring Angelina Jolie as opera singer Maria Callas, met with comically long standing ovations.



Almodóvar’s movie, which won the Golden Lion, was greeted with such a warm reception that the director ran around the theatre at its premiere, kissing and hugging attendees. In Canada, films that debuted in May at the Cannes Film Festival – including Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner Anora and Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez , which won the third-place Jury Prize and a special award for its quartet of actresses – gained many fans. But it was American director Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck that pulled off a surprise win for TIFF’s coveted People’s Choice Award on Sunday.

An adaptation of a Stephen King novella, it’s an apocalyptic parable on the meaning of life, told in reverse chronological order, starring Tom Hiddleston and featuring a great dance sequence, a mysterious attic and Nick Offerman narration that evokes one of King’s most beloved movie adaptations, Stand By Me . Could it be in Oscar contention? Twelve of the past 14 People’s Choice winners got best picture nominations – including last year’s winner, American Fiction – and four of them ( The King’s Speech , 12 Years a Slave , Green Book and Nomadland ) went on to win the Oscar..