2 days Ago
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Donald Trump declared on Nov. 6, 2024. As of this writing, the final certified results of the presidential election are not yet available.
But the numbers so far tell us that Trump won a majority of both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Meeting both benchmarks is a noteworthy achievement, but it is by no means “unprecedented.” Barack Obama, for example, won more electoral votes than Trump did both times he ran.
Nor does the victory give the incoming administration a mandate to turn its back on the fully half of U.S. voters who did not vote for Donald Trump.
Politics is not about winning; it’s about governing, and in a democracy, governing is not a zero-sum game, regardless of which party earns the most votes. Xavier Comas is a retired mathematical economist. He earned a Ph.
D. in economics from the Johns Hopkins University and worked for 30 years in the field of international development throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. He lives in Alna.
Winning the majority of the Electoral College is the constitutional requirement for being elected president. Winning the popular vote is not a constitutional requirement, but it does indicate who voters actually wished to elect as president. Trump’s Electoral College victory is significant.
He exceeded by 42 votes the 270 required, receiving 58% of the total – a 16% margin over Harris. Yet, considering the results in individual states, that margin of victory is much narrower. As few as 235,000 extra votes among Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – less than 0.
16% of all the total votes – would have tilted the Electoral College vote in Harris’ favor. Trump’s popular vote victory was even more narrow. He earned 50% of all votes cast.
In other words, 50% of voters wanted someone else to be president. When comparing Trump’s share of the popular vote with that of Kamala Harris, the difference was 1.8%.
In absolute numbers, Trump earned about 2.7 million more votes than Harris. That’s less than the population of the state of Mississippi.
A 1.8% advantage cannot be characterized as a broad “popular mandate,” especially on important issues that were not discussed during the campaign. For instance, voters did not weigh in on Trump’s desire to nominate cabinet members without the Senate’s consent, which is required under Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution.
By the same token, Harris’ losing the popular vote by only 1.8 percentage points does not constitute an overwhelming condemnation of her policies. Still, Harris’ defeat was a bitter one, since the Democrats had high expectations of winning the race.
The difference in popular vote indicates what everybody knows: the American electorate is narrowly divided, a fact that those in power should never forget. In addition to winning the presidential election, the Republican Party also gained control of the Senate and maintained its control of the House. But, again, its margin of control of both chambers, while sufficient to set its agendas, is relatively small.
Republicans won six more seats than the Democrats did in the Senate, and, while final numbers are still being tallied, it appears they won control of the House by fewer than three percentage points. If the incoming president and the Republican Party seek to move the country forward and heal its divisions, they would do well to remember Jefferson’s admonition from his 1801 inaugural address: “Though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; ..
. the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression.” We invite you to add your comments.
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