Nuclear Iran

The stage is set for an epoch-making geopolitical-geostrategic battle in the Greater Middle East Region (GMER) where a massive clash of vital national interests is underway. The US-led West & Israel Combine seeks status quo in the geopolitical and geostrategic domains of the GMER, while Iran’s potential military-nuclear-missile capacities and capabilities threaten it comprehensively. The contrived, grossly lopsided strategic (im)balance in the region is thus under threat too, and efforts are afoot to retain it – regardless of the costs! The US-led West & Israel combine has consistently reiterated its declared strategic objective that Iran will never be allowed to become a Nuclear Weapon State (NWS).

Period. The policy is epitomised by “maximum pressure” and is essentially two-pronged in nature – military coercion/operations and multidimensional sanctions. In the current strategic environment, it intends to exploit Iran’s supposedly weak position caused by the attenuation of its so-called Axis of Resistance (Houthis, Hamas, Hizbollah, Syria etc.



) and the losses suffered by its military (air defence systems, missile forces etc.) in Israeli air attacks. Israel seems adamant to destroy Iran’s nuclear-military-missile potential straightaway, while President Trump is inclined to give negotiations and a “deal” a chance first – though “all options remain on the table”! To that end, indirect or proximity talks have already started between the US and Iran.

Rupee gains 09 paisa against dollar The desired end states of the US-led West & Israel combine in these talks could be two-fold. The primary objective could be the total elimination of Iran’s nuclear programme in all its manifestations and dimensions, civil and/or military. The secondary objective could be to deny Iran the critical time and space to restore its sphere of influence and strategic reach within the GMER.

This would mean obviating the revival of the so-called Axis of Resistance and forestalling the recouping of its military losses suffered in Israeli air attacks. The desired end states for Iran could be manifold. One, the removal of all multidimensional sanctions on it without serious prejudice to its nuclear programme which it continuously proclaims does not seek a nuclear weapon.

Two, ensure that its uranium, regardless of the level of enrichment, is not shifted to another country, say Russia. Three, refuse to become another Ukraine! Four, gain crucial time and space to revitalise its so-called Axis of Resistance and rejuvenate its military potential. So, a battle of shrewd intellects, sublime diplomacy and negotiation skills, albeit with ominous existential threats for some in the GMER, is on.

The world watches, transfixed! PSX turns around to bullish trend, gains 449 points What does a nuclear Iran imply? In the GMER, the US-led West seeks to maintain the existing strategic balance that is outrageously skewed in Israel’s favour. Therefore, Israel, its outpost in the region, must persistently project overwhelming military-nuclear primacy and power, assertive supremacy and intrusive hegemony in the region at large. It is to always retain its freedom of action to carry out aggressive, offensive cross-border operations, punitive surgical strikes, land grabs, even genocide with impunity, audacity and at will.

All regional players are to remain militarily weaker than Israel, politically appeasing and generally subservient to the US-led West & Israel Combine’s collective interests; as most already are! Furthermore, Israel is to be the “only” NWS in the GMER – a critical, non-negotiable condition to maintaining the status quo! The US-led West & Israel combine feels that its vital national interests would be seriously threatened by a nuclear Iran and would thus not be averse to going to war to secure them. It will probably seek a defanged, denuclearised and weak Iran with an insignificant (malign?) sphere of influence and very limited strategic reach; both of which must, of necessity, remain well short of Israel. A nuclear Iran, therefore, will threaten the carefully articulated geopolitical and geostrategic environments, the US-led West & Israel Combine’s nuclear-missile monopoly and military ascendancy in the GMER.

It could foreclose Israel’s freedom of action to dominate, pulverise and haughtily overwhelm its neighbours. It could usher in the elusive strategic balance in the GMER, much to the detriment of the US-led West & Israel Combine’s vital national interests. It could circumscribe Israel’s sphere of influence conclusively, contest its strategic reach on equal footing, deny it its audacious freedom of movement and action, and emerge as a viable counterforce within the region.

A nuclear Iran could actually become the Regional Equaliser; it could equalise the odds for all lesser players in the GMER! It could bring in that balance of terror which could potentially engender peace in the region. It could possibly become the region’s premier security provider and have pretensions of regional leadership. Ominously, it could even instigate and kick-start nuclear programmes of some major regional players, like KSA and Türkiye too.

The geopolitical dynamics, the geostrategic compulsions and the power calculus and structure of the GMER would thus undergo a fundamental, paradigm shift. The regional centres of power will shift too. That could redefine the current geopolitical alignments, partnerships and the strategic balance in the region.

The Gulf Arab states could feel positively inclined towards Iran, review the Abraham Accords and even make them redundant. The geopolitical and geostrategic imperatives of the GMER could thus be redefined, reconstrued wholesomely. The US-led West & Israel Combine would be constrained to look at newer alignments, fresher approaches and more flexible policies to secure its vital national interests in the region.

Geopolitically and geo-strategically, a new GMER will take birth. Chinese ingress and Russian interests in the GMER could yet acquire even more meaningful proportions, contest the US-led West’s sphere of influence vigorously and may even hasten and crystallise the potentially monumental geopolitical-geostrategic transformation! Commerce minister meets UN Agri-Food delegation to advance nutrition, trade, GI-reforms Will the US-led West & Israel Combine allow, manage, contain it – or contest it fiercely? Imran Malik The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.

[email protected] and tweets @K846Im. Tags: nuclear iran.