1 week Ago By Joseph Hathaway-Wilson
Treasurer Bill Yan is facing a wicked problem. The NT government wants to grow the population by 4,000 people per year, something that's only been achieved on a handful of occasions since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the NT's population has been growing by an average of less than 2,000 people per year over the past decade — the slowest growth rate in Australia.
From the government's perspective, the benefits of growing the territory's population are clear: increased GST revenue, greater demand for small business services, and stimulation of a debt-ridden economy. Bill Yan says boosting the NT's population will help turn around its economic fortunes. "If we grow our population across the board then we see more demand for those services, and when there's demand we see an increase in supply," Mr Yan said.
How will the NT boost its population? Last month the government signed NT DAMA III, a federal government agreement which will see the territory onboard up to 1,500 skilled migrants from overseas per year. The issue is, the territory already takes on thousands of international migrants every year, and it's done little to grow the overall population. That's because the NT's population is leaking interstate.
Since COVID-19, the NT has lost a greater portion of its population interstate than any other Australian jurisdiction, cancelling out the gains made from international arrivals. Charles Darwin University Associate Professor Andrew Taylor said while the territory attracted plenty of migrants, few come with the intention of staying long-term. "For us to reach the 4,000 figure something would have to fundamentally change, and unfortunately there's not really any sign that things are changing," he said.
Andrew Taylor says the government's population target is ambitious. Complicating matters further, Professor Taylor said unlike other jurisdictions, the creation of jobs in the NT had not coincided with long-term population growth. Historically, sudden population growth triggered by large-scale projects like the INPEX gas project in 2012 and the refurbishment of the Darwin waterfront precinct in the mid-2000s has been short-lived, with employees leaving the territory soon afterwards.
With the NT's debt now mounting to nearly $12 billion, both Treasury and the NT's leading demographers are looking outside the box for solutions. How can you get people to stay? With one of the largest fly-in fly-out (FIFO) workforces in the country, Mr Yan said he wanted more FIFO workers from the territory's gas and minerals sector to settle in the NT. "The great thing is that most of these companies agree with the territory government, they don't want to see a fly-in fly-out workforce model either," he said.
The NT government wants to see fly-in fly-out workers settle in the territory. Mr Yan said home ownership initiatives such as the made the dream of living and working in the territory a possibility. "We know all too well that once you've bought a house and you've got a mortgage, you put down roots in the place where you live," he said.
The scheme offers first-home buyers $50,000 to build or buy a new home on the condition that they continue living in the Northern Territory. The government is offering incentives for people to build homes in the NT. Professor Taylor agreed that buying a house increases the likelihood of people staying long-term, but had reservations about scrapping FIFO work.
"You can't really force people to settle long-term in the territory if that's not part of their plan for themselves and their families," he said. "We've always been high employers of non-resident workers and I can't really see that discontinuing." What about the 'soft factors'? According to Professor Taylor, the answer to the territory's population trouble could be what demographers refer to as "soft factors".
He said while jobs and homes might attract workers to the economy, the key to retaining the territory's population was a matter of residents feeling connected to the communities in which they reside. "Encouraging the formation of social networks, getting people engaged with the community and embedded in the community through social activities are shown to be important in retaining people beyond just two years in the territory." The Northern Territory is losing thousands more residents interstate than it's gaining, meaning the jurisdiction is set to miss its 2030 population target of 300,000 people.
Professor Taylor also noted the multicultural make-up of the territory was an asset when it came to retaining international migrants. Meanwhile, the Northern Territory opposition has pointed to better work conditions as a means of keeping workers. Opposition Leader Selena Uibo noted that on the day the CLP announced its population targets, it was also seeking to for community service workers.
'We are not going to see people stay in the Northern Territory if they can get the work entitlements that they have been offered in other jurisdictions," the Territory Labor leader said..
