21 hours Ago By By Deveryn Ross
During Thursday night’s English-language leaders’ debate, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre told Liberal Leader Mark Carney that “We need a change, and you, sir, are not a change.” Read this article for free: Already have an account? As we navigate through unprecedented times, our journalists are working harder than ever to bring you the latest local updates to keep you safe and informed. Now, more than ever, we need your support.
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During Thursday night’s English-language leaders’ debate, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre told Liberal Leader Mark Carney that “We need a change, and you, sir, are not a change.” Read unlimited articles for free today: Already have an account? Opinion During Thursday night’s English-language leaders’ debate, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre told Liberal Leader Mark Carney that “We need a change, and you, sir, are not a change.” He’s right on the first part, but wrong on the second.
For more than two years, while Justin Trudeau occupied the Prime Minister’s Office, national and regional public opinion polls consistently revealed Canadians’ desire for a change in national political leadership. In June of last year, for example, the Ipsos polling organization found that 44 per cent of Canadians believed that Poilievre would make the best prime minister, while just 25 per cent believed that Trudeau was the better choice. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (left) and Liberal Leader Mark Carney participate in the English-language federal leaders’ debate in Montreal on Thursday.
(The Canadian Press) The same poll found that a whopping 68 per cent of respondents believed that Trudeau should resign as Liberal leader and prime minister, while just 32 per cent believed he should continue to hold those positions. Just 25 per cent believed the Trudeau government had done a “good job” and deserved to be re-elected, while 75 per cent agreed that it was time for another party to take over. Fast-forward to this week and both the political reality and polling numbers are completely different.
Trudeau has been replaced by Carney as Liberal leader and prime minister, and that has obviously had an impact on the electoral trajectory for both the Liberals and Tories. According to a Nanos Research poll released earlier this week, Carney’s Liberals lead Poilievre’s Conservatives by a 44-39 margin nationally. That is almost identical to the 44-40 Liberal lead announced by Mainstreet Research on the same day.
Also this week, Abacus Data revealed that 40 per cent of Canadians prefer Carney to be prime minister after the election, while just 34 per cent prefer Poilievre to be our next PM. In Quebec, Carney leads Poilievre by a massive 24 points on that question. In Ontario, his lead is nine points.
Abacus also found that Carney continues to be the most well-regarded major federal leader, with 45 per cent of respondents viewing him positively versus 32 per cent viewing him negatively, resulting in a net favourability score of +13. On the other hand, 43 per cent of respondents view Poilievre negatively while just 40 per cent have a positive impression of him, for a net favourability score of -3 — and that’s his best rating in weeks. What does all of that data tell us? A lot of this falls under the “stating the obvious” category, but it appears clear that Canadians’ desire for another political party to form government was really an expression of disapproval of Trudeau’s job performance, and not necessarily a rejection of the Liberal Party generally.
Immediately after Trudeau announced his pending resignation as PM and Liberal leader in January, the Liberal Party’s polling numbers began to climb and they have held a stable lead for the better part of a month now. Second, even though Canadians wanted a change in the leadership of the federal government, many were never really comfortable with the idea of Poilievre being our next prime minister. There may have been a time when a large percentage of respondents preferred that he be the next prime minister, but that was when the only other choices were Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh — and during all that time, Canadians never had a significant favourable impression of the Tory leader.
Those consistent low favourability numbers were a clear message that there was something about Poilievre that many Canadians didn’t like. With the Tories riding high in the polls and appearing to be destined to win the next election, however, it appears that Poilievre felt no pressure — no need — to stop doing and saying things that were turning off so many voters. Trudeau’s resignation, combined with Carney’s election as Liberal leader last month, has exposed how serious a mistake it was for Poilievre to not make the necessary adjustments shortly after he became Tory leader.
Ever since Trudeau announced his intention to resign, more voters have had a negative impression of Poilievre than favourable, and that is a huge reason why the Liberals are now widely favoured to win the election. If that sounds overly simplistic, ask yourself this question: If a more likable leader such as Jean Charest or Erin O’Toole was leading the Conservative Party today, would the Tories be winning or losing? The obvious answer is that they would be cruising toward a huge majority. The too-often caustic demeanour of Poilievre and his campaign team is costing the party what appeared, just five months ago, to be a guaranteed win.
When Poilievre says Canadians want change, he’s right. The problem for him, however, is that Mark Carney appears to represent the change voters crave. The Tory leader has just a few days to change their minds.
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