2 weeks Ago By Craig Ray
If the Springboks beat Wales in their 13th and final Test of a seminal 2024 season, it would mark an eleventh Test victory. It would be the best season, outside of World Cup years, since 1998. Coach Rassie Erasmus has navigated this year of success while also making it a season of growth.
By Saturday evening, 52 players would have represented the Boks in 2024, with lock Jean Kleyn and looseforward Cameron Hanekom making their first appearances of the season. To keep winning while evolving and changing on nearly half the starting team every time they play, has been a remarkable feat of management. Read more: Strategic Boks show misfiring and in crisis England and Wales what they’re missing Consistency in performance usually comes with consistency in selection.
The Boks have flipped that script, and while their performances have not always been exceptional in 2024, they have managed to get results. And in the longer term, the benefits of the growth of depth and style the squad have undergone this year, will only be felt in the future. Despite all the evolution though, the success of the year depends on the Boks beating Wales.
They have to finish the job against a team with its backs firmly against the wall. Rassie Erasmus, head coach of the Springboks, during the South African team announcement in Cardiff on 19 November 2024. (Photo: Steve Haag Sports/Gallo Images) There is never a sure thing in professional sport because it involves humans — usually very skilled humans — but people nonetheless.
And humans have emotions and temperament, and injuries and niggles, and doubts and fears. Yet, the Springboks beating Wales at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday is as close to a sure thing as there is rugby at the moment. Read more: Rassie primes Boks for crucial Wales battle after burying hatchet with beleaguered Gatland Some might say this is an arrogant assumption, but other than the most blinkered and patriotic Welsh fan, driven by heart and emotion and not their heads, no one is going to bet on Wales winning.
Wales have lost 11 Tests in a row. They are in freefall. They don’t have a discernible style of play and lack players of great quality and experience in many positions.
They are callow and shorn of confidence. Facing them are the world champions — the No 1 team on the planet. The Boks have two world-class players in every position, and in some they have three.
They have won 10 of 12 Tests this year, collected every piece of silverware available to them, and are riding a tsunami of momentum and confidence. There is just no way Wales can win. Is there? Well, of course there is.
This is elite sport, where desperation coming against a tide of complacency can lead to a strange outcome. Which is why, the Boks, for all their success this year, face their biggest challenge. In just about every Test this season, barring Portugal, winning has not been a foregone conclusion.
Given the situation between Wales and the Boks in 2024, winning in Cardiff should be a matter of course for the world champions. And if the Boks play anywhere close to their potential, then victory will be assured. But, and this is a big “but”, they cannot for a moment be complacent.
They can’t arrive and expect that Wales will wilt and roll over. “I think we can expect desperation from them,” starting lock Kleyn said this week. “A dog in the corner is always dangerous, so we’re definitely preparing for a big fight, especially in the first 20 minutes.
“They are going to come out with a lot of emotion, so it’s going to be tough, but we have plans in place to deal with their threats, and we’ve been working on areas that could make us a little more threatening. “They’re a team with a lot of youngsters who want to prove a point, and particularly since it’s the last game of the season and they are now 11 down, so they’d definitely love to finish the season by beating world champions.” Jean Kleyn of South Africa during the Rugby World Cup 2023 warm-up match between Wales and South Africa at Principality Stadium on 19 August 2023 in Cardiff.
(Photo: Steve Haag/Gallo Images) Can you imagine Warren Gatland’s team talk this week? All he needs to do is pin up various headlines and bookmaker odds on the team room walls, to motivate the players. Wales have nothing to lose in this contest. It might even be Gatland’s last game in charge.
What better way to go out, if it is to be his swansong of a long and successful association with Welsh rugby, than with a win over the Boks? It’s also a Bok team with a tight five that looks slightly makeshift after loosehead prop Ox Nche was withdrawn. Thomas du Toit will start at loosehead, Wilco Louw comes in at tightead with Johan Grobbelaar at hooker. Good players all, but they have not started together before.
In the second row Kleyn makes his first Test appearance of the year – the 51 st player coach Rassie Erasmus has used in 2024 – alongside Franco Mostert. A year ago that lock pairing would be the envy of the world. Right now, Kleyn is still not back to his best after injury problems earlier in the year.
Mostert is only set for his second game in five months, following a broken leg. They are combining with a new hooker and with different lifters in the lineout in Louw and Du Toit. There are a lot of moving parts that might not gel immediately.
Wales will almost certainly be targeting the lineout as one area where they can perhaps gain a small foothold in the game. They have to believe the Boks have some weaknesses and the Bok tight five, ironically, might offer that sliver of hope. “In a weird way, there’s not a better team to come to town this week for Wales, because the best side in the world are coming to town,” former Wales centre Jamie Roberts said in an interview with Supersport’s What goes on tour vodcast.
“If there’s ever a team to sharpen and focus the mind, it’s the Springboks. “I’ve been there in teams where you’ve lost quite a few games on the bounce, but when the best teams in the world rock up, you’ve got to come up to another level, not just to have any chance of winning but I think, at the minute, just to compete on the weekend. “This Springbok juggernaut is just another level of machine at the minute, the way they play the game, the power, just how uncompromising they are, the set pieces — it’s going to be a huge challenge for Wales.
“But in a roundabout way, I think it’s the best team to be coming to town for Wales this weekend to really understand where we’re truly at.” And Roberts is right, in the sense that the Boks have everything to lose in this game. A Wales win would be one of the great upsets of all time.
Warren Gatland, the Wales head coach, prior to the Autumn Nations Series 2024 match between Wales and Australia at Principality Stadium on 17 November 2024 in Cardiff. (Photo: David Rogers/Getty Images) While the Boks’ tight five has an unknown look about, Erasmus’ team are rock solid almost everywhere else. Siya Kolisi, Elrigh Louw and Jasper Wiese are a formidable back row.
Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel at centre are colossal and the back three of Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Aphelele Fassi are perhaps the best attacking trio in world rugby right now. The Principality Stadium roof will be closed for the match, meaning conditions should be decent for the steppers and runners, after a week of rain and snow in Cardiff. Another small question mark for the Boks is at halfback, where brothers Jaden and Jordan Hendrikse combine for the first time in a Test.
Jaden had a sloppy afternoon against Scotland a few weeks ago when the Boks opened their tour with a 32-15 win at Murrayfield. Jordan didn’t have the best of Test debuts against Wales at Twickenham in June, in his only appearance so far. The Boks won that match 41-13 and were always in control.
They will be hoping for more of the same this week. Jordan has grown throughout the year, which he underlined by landing a massive, pressure-laden 59-metre penalty to win the Currie Cup final against the Lions in September. Erasmus has also stacked the bench with quality from Eben Etzebeth to Handr è Pollard.
The Boks should win. It’s impossible to see how Wales can stop the inevitable. But this is sport.
By its very nature there is always a small chance for the underdog, which is why it’s so compelling. DM 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Will Rowlands, 4 Christ Tshiunza, 3 Gareth Thomas, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Archie Griffin Reserves: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway. 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jessie Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handr è Pollard.
Referee: Karl Dickson (England) Kick-off: 7.40pm (Supersport).
