1 week Ago By Rapheal
H appy new year to all our readers and may 2025 be our year of triumph and abundance in all sectors of our lives and that of our country. May we be exempted from all the traps and destructions of our detractors, opponents, and enemies, visible or invisible, by the grace of God. President Bola Tinubu Events in 2024 have put it beyond doubt that the world is increasingly descending into chaos and anarchy.
The reason for this unsavoury descent into international instability is the obvious disregard for rule of law, especially international law. Some countries, especially the veto wielding countries, now behave as if they are above the law. The foundation of this international lawlessness in modern times commenced from around 2021 when Russia, without any known provocation, at least no provable physical aggression against it by Ukraine, started amassing its armed forces along Ukrainian borders.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a vicious war against Ukraine on five fronts in what Putin titled a military operation. USA predicted that Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, will fall within four days of the invasion. Ukraine, under the maverick leadership of President Zelensky, gallantly and ferociously fought back, to the chagrin of the world, and not only withstood the invading Russian forces, but completely wiped them out from the western coast of the country with the resultant effect that Kyiv, three years into the war, is still standing without any immediate threat to its collapse.
Russia is still kicking and advancing at snail speed into Ukrainian territories from the eastern coast of the country. The obvious failure of Russia to achieve its aims is pushing the country into desperation to protect itself from the obvious disgrace it will feel if Ukraine, with the assistance from NATO and the US turn around and defeat it in battle. This made Russia to seek for new alliances from the eastern countries of China, India, and even North Korea.
As of today, North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russian soldiers against Ukraine. This means that a gradual global conflict is emerging between the global west led by NATO and the US, and the global east led by Russia and China. China’s interest in this matter lies in their intention to take over Taiwan by force if need be.
Obviously, Taiwan will never surrender its democratic territory to the undemocratic China, after witnessing what happened to the democratic Hongkong, when the British bequeathed Hongkong back to China at the end of the 100-year agreement in which it was agreed that Britain should occupy Hongkong for 100 years and return same to China. It was agreed that Hongkong would maintain its economic and political systems which vary substantially from that of China, when China retook the Island. China reneged and has virtually destroyed all the democratic structures of Hongkong with all the freedom fighters sent to jail as political prisoners.
With this state of things, Taiwan will never peacefully submit to China. 2025 presents China with the greatest opportunity to invade Taiwan to retake it by force because of the perception of the Chinese top officials that all the backers of Taiwan, which include the western democratic countries and the US, have been substantially weakened owing to their support for Ukraine against Russia. If this happens, third world war may not be a mirage anymore.
The other major international event that might lead to international anarchy was the sudden and surprising attack against Israel on the 7th of October, 2023 by HAMAS from Gaza which resulted in the death of about 1,200 Israelis. This was declared to be an act of war by Israelis, who launched the most terrific response against HAMAS in Gaza that wiped out the entire leadership of HAMAS and resulted in the deaths of about 45,000 Gazans. This war was internationalised with the attacks on Israel by HEZBOLLAH from Lebanon and Iran in solidarity with HAMAS.
Israel responded by wiping out the entire leadership of HEZBOLLAH and revenge attacks on Iran which led to some casualties. The international fallout of these wars resulted in the unexpected collapse of the Assad regime in Syria which became inevitable with the weakening of HEZBOLLAH, Iran, and Russia, his main backers and sustainers. He is today in exile in Russia.
On the African continent, the purported exit of the three sahel countries of Niger Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the hostile disposition of them to their former colonial master France and neighbours, particularly Nigeria, portend another source of international lawlessness. The Nigerien Military leader recently and provocatively accused Nigeria of harbouring France’s armed forces to attack Niger Republic. Unfortunately for Nigeria, Niger Republic occupies almost the entire length of the northern border of Nigeria, covering about seven states, and is needed to assist Nigeria in the fight against international terrorism that threaten Nigeria from the North.
Unfortunately for Nigeria also, the present administration has not displayed commensurate wisdom and competence in dealing with the situation. In addition to these international lawlessness caused by the irrational attitude of some countries, are some of the terrorist actions of some individuals in some advanced and developing countries which may contribute to the lawlessness the world is now facing. USA woke up in the early hours of the new year to the news that an ISIS inspired, former US army veteran, who has been having financial difficulties in his life, had intentionally driven into a crowd of merry makers in New Orleans, in an apparent terrorist attack, killing about 15 new-year celebrants and injuring many.
Earlier, during Christmas celebration, an anti-muslim doctor from Saudi Arabia, rammed his vehicle into a crowd in Germany, killing five people, in protest against Germany for allowing Muslim immigrants into Germany. That a man, who’s from Saudi Arabia, the capital of Islam in the world, will be protesting against the admission of Muslims into a foreign country, reveals instantly that we are in a new world where certain unexpected events happen. These events require great tact, and skill in international diplomacy, coupled with good governance and respect for the fundamental rights of Nigerians to tackle.
The international relations policy of Nigeria is afrocentric in nature and non-aligned in relations outside Africa. With the advent of the cold war between USSR and USA, Nigeria and other medium powers adopted a non-aligned policy of not siding any country in the cold war. This government must adopt same strategy.
The government must not be seen as siding Russia or Ukraine, Israel or Palestine. It should continue to call on all sides to employ dialogue in the settlement of their disputes while adhering to the principles of international law, especially the laws of armed conflict. It is in this regard that Tinubu should be wary with the Greek friendship that France is offering Nigeria today.
ECOWAS decided long ago to create a new ECOWAS currency “the eco”. This policy was thwarted by the insistence of France that the proposed currency will be denominated in “franc” rather than the dollar. France has not been fair in its dealing with Africa, both economically and politically.
It will not be wise for Nigeria to allow France to use it to taunt the francophone countries which are fighting to free themselves from the colonial clutches of France. This is not to agree with the statement of Niger’s Head of State that Nigeria is providing any base for foreign troops, but Nigeria should not be seen in rapprochement with France when the francophone countries are running away from them. They ought to maintain a dignified silence and aloofness for now while trying to maintain good relations with all.
The body language of a leader matters a lot. Above all, poor people and individuals who are facing economic, social, and political problems are easier to be recruited as terrorists by these terrorist organisations. The American former US veteran was having financial difficulties in his life and became easy target for ISIS to recruit and was used to kill fellow innocent American people.
Most Nigerians that have been used as suicide bombers have come from the very vulnerable groups of out of school children from poor homes. The philosophy of the recruitment is that they will be freed from their suffering in this world and granted a better life in heaven when they die in jihad. It’s in this regard that this government must endeavour to improve the security and welfare of Nigerians, improve food production, build the dilapidated infrastructure, reduce inflation and interest rate, improve the quality of naira and make the wages of Nigerians a living wage.
Operate an inclusive government, reduce cost of governance in order to have more money for the people. With all these measures, the standard of living of Nigerians will improve and the possibility of the terrorists recruiting more Nigerians for more terrorist acts will be drastically reduced..
