7 hours Ago By Jonathan Saxty - Political Commentator
One thing could throw a spanner in the works for Nigel Farage and Reform UK as the party rises fast in the polls. No, not Kemi Badenoch. Nor Sir Keir Starmer , at least not on his own merits.
The risk is China. For now, China has been willing to bide its time over taking over the island democracy of Taiwan. That is because China believes a decadent and declining West will burn itself out, enabling China to push back its takeover timeline.
But with Trump 2.0 that calculation may be changing. Make no mistake, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) boss Xi Jinping has to make a move soon, preferably before the 2027 party congress.
The reason Xi is so adamant about "reunification" is the fact Taiwan sits in the heart of the 'first island chain', a network of Western-allied island states which blocks China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from pushing into the Pacific and achieving geopolitical parity with the USA. That parity is a longstanding aim of the CCP. That China is building new mobile piers right now - piers which could help an invasion - only adds to the sense of urgency.
Now bear in mind the next UK election is slated for 2029. In wartime scenarios - and regardless of whether the UK gets militarily dragged in, the economic impact of an Asian war would be beyond our gravest nightmares - incumbent governments often have the edge. Moreover, domestic issues like immigration take a backseat (unless war catalyses a refugee crisis).
Reform UK has so far said little about foreign policy and defence beyond increasing defence spending. This could be a major weakness in wartime, especially if voters want stability, even if that stability is in a Sir Keir-shaped form. This, more than anything, risks Reform's rise and the party needs to prepare now for the possibility of a major world war.
Make no mistake, Xi and the CCP are 100 per cent committed to taking over Taiwan. Meanwhile the clock is ticking and Trump may have brought the CCP's timeline forward. Farage going hard on the disastrous Chagos Islands giveaway would be a good start in addressing this issue.
But Reform UK needs to consider an even bigger picture and an international situation which could pull the rug right from under the party and end its phenomenal rise..
