1 week Ago
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Tuesday, tracking a rebound in Asian markets. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,650 level, a premium of nearly 386 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Monday, the domestic equity market indices witnessed its biggest single-day fall in 10 months, with the benchmark Nifty 50 falling below 22,200. The Sensex cracked 2,226.79 points, or 2.
95%, to close at 73,137.90, while the Nifty 50 settled 742.85 points, or 3.
24%, lower at 22,161.60. Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Nifty OI Data Derivatives data continues to reflect a strong bearish tilt.
Call writers have decisively outpaced put writers, reinforcing the negative undertone. “The 22,500 strike witnessed substantial call writing (45.23 lakh contracts), cementing it as a key resistance.
Meanwhile, significant put writing at the 22,000 strike (80.79 lakh contracts) suggests solid support at lower levels, though the defensive stance from buyers is beginning to weaken. The 22,300–22,500 range now acts as a strong supply belt, while the shifting put base toward lower strikes (22,000–22,100) indicates fading optimism,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dipped from 0.60 to 0.58, showcasing growing caution.
With the Max Pain level resting at 22,750, bears appear to be absorbing every bullish attempt, increasing the likelihood of further downward drift, he added. Nifty 50 Prediction Nifty 50 witnessed massive selloff on April 7 and ended the day lower by 742 points, closing the day off the lows and the opening down gap remains partially filled. “A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart at the new swing low of 21,743 levels.
Technically, this market action indicates an emergence of buying interest after sharp weakness. Monday’s swing low could also be considered as a new lower bottom formation around 21,800 levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is sharply negative with high volatility.
“Monday’s swing low of 21,743 could now be considered as an important support for the short term and one may expect buying to emerge from the lower levels. Immediate resistance is placed at 22,400,” said Shetti. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 index has decisively slipped below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), deteriorating the short-term trend outlook.
“The supertrend indicator has also flipped negative, further weakening the momentum. The daily RSI dropped sharply and now stands at 34, indicating mounting pressure as it remains on the verge of oversold territory. India VIX at 22.
79 spiked 65.62% intraday, a surge last seen during the COVID fall, signalling heightened volatility and investor nervousness. The next level, 21,530, remains a crucial support; holding above this may help the index stabilize, while a break below it could accelerate the downside,” said Mehra.
According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, the Nifty 50 index has already corrected almost 17% from its 2024 peak, and it can fall even more, possibly testing the 21,270 level seen before the election results. “Meanwhile, for long-term investors with a three-year view, this correction can be seen as a good opportunity to buy quality stocks at lower prices, while short-term traders are advised to stay cautious. In the current situation, a ‘sell-on-rise’ strategy is more appropriate to manage the high market volatility.
Due to the India VIX spike, option premiums are expensive right now, so hedging has become costly. On the other hand, I would advise traders to stay cautious of heavily tariffed countries (relative to India), as the risk of dumping increases,” said VLA Ambala. Considering the ongoing market developments, she expects Nifty 50 to get support between 21,750 and 22,000 and find resistance between 22,300 and 22,450.
Bank Nifty Prediction Bank Nifty index plunged 1,642.60 points, or 3.19%, to close at 49,860.
10, on Monday, forming a green candle on the daily chart. “ Bank Nifty index defended the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50-DEMA) support placed around 49,500 and formed a green candle on the daily chart, indicating strength at lower levels. On the upside, the 50,650 – 50,750 zone will act as a key resistance area.
A sustained move above 50,750 will be required to trigger a fresh rally in the index,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty closed below the 20- and 50-days EMA.
“Bank Nifty’s index immediate bias remains down and only a formation of higher high and higher low in the daily chart will signal a pause in the current corrective trend. Bank Nifty has immediate resistance at 51,000 levels while key support to watch out on the lower side is 49,000 - 48,700. Along with the development on US tariff policies, market participants will also keep a close eye on the RBI monetary policy outcome and resumption of Q4FY25 earnings season in the current week,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
As per Om Mehra, the Bank Nifty index slipped below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, and the breakdown from its flag formation has negated the recent bullish outlook “Nifty Bank has now retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 49,300, which could act as a make-or-break zone. A decisive breach below this level may open the door for a further decline toward the 48,700 zone.
The daily RSI has slipped below the 50 mark, indicating a clear loss of momentum and rising downside pressure. Nifty Private Bank and Nifty PSU Bank indices fell 3.47% and 2.
84% respectively. The trend from here remains watchful, with the upcoming sessions likely to be crucial for directional clarity,” Mehra said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.
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