2 weeks Ago
Whenever there is a big upset in the NFL , people love to use the phrase "any given Sunday," meaning that these upsets should not come as a total surprise. Things have somewhat calmed down since the beginning of the 2024 season, when it felt as if it was a weekly tradition that a team that was projected to lose by over a touchdown won outright, but it is not as though the underdogs have stopped causing chaos. One of the most fun things you can do when betting on the NFL is call your shot on a favorite to lose straight up.
So, with that thought in mind, please check out the best NFL underdog predictions for Week 10. Steelers Moneyline (+125) Bet365 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders, 1 p.
m. ET The Commanders, led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels, are the darlings of the NFL at this point in time, but we are fading them against the Steelers on Sunday. This is not to take away anything from their start to the season and how impressive they have been, but this is a tough matchup against a good Steelers team.
BET $5, GET $200 BONUS BETS DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK $1,000 FIRST BET RESET (MUST USE CODE NEWSWEEK) ESPN BET $1,500 FIRST-BET OFFER BETMGM $150 BONUS OR $1,000 FIRST-BET SAFETY NET BET365 $1,000 FIRST BET CAESARS SPORTSBOOK BET $5, WIN $150 BONUS BETS FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK Part of the Commanders' success on offense has been due to a soft schedule of opposing defenses. According to DVOA, the Commanders have had the fifth-easiest offensive schedule in the NFL , which makes sense when you dig into their schedule. Here is the defensive DVOA ranking of all seven teams they have beaten this season: So, the only above-average defense they have played is the Chicago Bears, and the Commanders only scored 18 points in that game, 6 of which came on the Hail Mary as time expired.
Of course, you can only play who is on your schedule, so it is not the fault of the Commanders that they have beat up on bad teams, but the Steelers will be the best defense the Commanders will have seen, by far, with the eighth-best defensive DVOA. With Russell Wilson at QB, the Steelers offense has been good enough, as he has quickly developed a solid chemistry with George Pickens on the deep ball. So, the guess here is that the Steelers are able to do enough against an admittedly improved Commanders defense to get the job done on Sunday.
Steelers moneyline (+125): 0.50 Units New York Jets +1 (-115) BetMGM New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.
m. ET This might be somewhat of a cop-out taking, but the Jets are technically the underdogs, and this is a Cardinals team that is ripe to fade. The Cardinals defense has admittedly been better than expected recently, but based on their lack of talent and their struggles at the beginning of the season, the guess here is that this unit will struggle over the stretch run of this regular season.
On the year, the Cardinals still have a below-average defense that ranks 18th according to DVOA, but 25th in passing defense DVOA. This Jets offense showed some signs of life in Week 9, with Aaron Rodgers having a good day throwing to both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, and they should be able to continue that positive momentum against the Cardinals. As recently as a couple weeks ago, the Cardinals defense was a target for RB rushing props, but they have admittedly cleaned that up over the past three weeks.
In fact, Arizona now has the 11th-ranked rushing defense according to DVOA. From Weeks 1-6, the Cardinals allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game on the eighth-highest adjusted yards before contact allowed. In the three weeks since, the Cards have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Of course, it helps that in two of those weeks they played two bottom-10 rushing offenses in the Bears and Chargers. With Breece Hall coming along recently, the Jets should have the advantage both in the air and on the ground, helping them secure the victory on Sunday. Jets +1 (-115): 1 Unit Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article.
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