1 week Ago
With Week 1 finally here, it is time to delve into the player prop betting market specifically. If you are looking for anytime touchdowns, , as this article will focus on non-TD player props. Engram quietly came close to a record-breaking season in 2023.
He finished the year with 114 receptions, which was the second-most in history for a tight end in a single season. Only Zach Ertz has had more in one year, back in 2018 when he had 116 receptions. What this is also saying is that in no year in 's or Tony Gonzalez's career did they have more receptions than Engram did in 2023.
Kelce has had over 100 three separate times, but the closest he came to Engram's 2023 numbers was in 2022, when he had 110 receptions, and Gonzalez only went over 100 once, with 101 in 2004. $250 BONUS BETS DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK $1,000 FIRST BET RESET (MUST USE CODE NEWSWEEK) ESPN BET UP TO $1,000 BONUS BETS FANATICS SPORTSBOOK $1,500 FIRST-BET OFFER BETMGM $200 BONUS OR $1,000 FIRST-BET SAFETY NET BET365 $1,000 FIRST BET CAESARS SPORTSBOOK $200 BONUS BETS FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK This is all to say that Engram was a receptions machine in 2023, and we have similar expectations for 2024. If the preseason is any indication, Engram is set up for another huge year.
In the Jaguars' last preseason game, which they used as a dress rehearsal for the regular season, with their starters playing the entire first half, Engram scored two touchdowns with the first-team offense. The Jaguars also completely revamped their receiving core, adding Gabe Davis in free agency and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 Draft.
Thomas Jr. might end the year as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence's top receiving target, but the guess here is that is going to happen over the course of the season, whereas Engram will be his favorite target in Week 1. For this play, we will be backing the Bills' second-year tight end Kincaid to get to 60 or more receiving yards to cash this plus-money banger for us.
As far as rookie tight ends go, Kincaid had a great year last year. He ended the year with 673 receiving yards on 91 targets, which is the fourth-most receiving yards for a rookie since 2010, and also the fourth-most targets. Generally, tight ends take some time to develop (Sam LaPorta notwithstanding), but Kincaid came up big for the Bills last year.
Kincaid only recorded 60 or more yards receiving in five of 16 regular season games in 2023, but the 2024 Bills receiving unit is wildly different from last year. Gone is Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets (sixth-most in ) and 107 receptions (also sixth-most), while the Bills also lost their second-receiver in Gabe Davis to free agency. Overall, the Bills have the second-most vacated targets from their 2023 roster, so the guess here is that Kincaid is going to be a huge benefactor.
In 2023, the Cardinals had the worst defense in the according to both DVOA and PFF, with the second-worst passing defense per DVOA. By any metric you look at, the Cardinals defense was horrible in 2023, and they are not projected to be much better this year. PFF gives them the 32nd (worst) secondary in the , which Kincaid should be able to exploit in Week 1.
The last football game that Matthew Stafford played last year was a loss to these same Lions, and in that game, he threw for 367 yards. While we are not quite predicting that type of output, Stafford getting to 300 yards is something we love, especially at +180. This is a number that Stafford only hit in six of 16 games last year, but this is all about the matchup.
The Detroit Lions defense was a pass funnel last year, and it appears to be the same situation in 2024 as well. Their run defense was phenomenal -- best in the , according to DVOA -- but their pass defense was not nearly the same unit. While they only finished 18th in terms of pass defense DVOA, they allowed a ton of passing yards as the season went on.
On the entire season, they allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (268.4 passing yards/game), but as the season went on, they got progressively worse. From Week 8 on, Detroit allowed the most passing yards per game (282.
5) in the league, and from Week 12 on, that number jumped up to 304.7 per game. For context, no other team was above 272 per game.
The Lions return the same defensive coordinator from last year in Aaron Glenn, and while the revamp of the secondary could bring improvements, growing pains should be expected, especially early, following the extensive offseason changes at cornerback. Detroit drafted both Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr., acquired nickel Amik Robertson in free agency and traded for Carlton Davis III.
Meanwhile, though Stafford only cashed this in six games last year, he did do it in the last three to end the season. With elite receiving weapons in Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua, he should be able to pick up where he left off. Matt Modi works as a Sports Betting Writer for Newsweek, covering anything and everything sports betting related.
His main focus is NFL, NBA and MLB, but anything going on in the sports betting landscape Matt can cover. Previously, he worked for OddsJam, SportsBettingDime and BettingPros, and brings a lot more experience than just writing. He used to host a Podcast called , and currently has his own YouTube Channel called where he uploads daily videos.
Matt is a self-proclaimed tormented Philadelphia sports fan, with the greatest moment of his life being when he attended the Eagles Super Bowl victory over the Patriots with his mom. In his personal life, Matt lives outside of Charlottesville, VA with his fiancee and two dogs. They spend most of their time hiking and enjoying the outdoors, or at home watching movies.
Matt Modi works as a Sports Betting Writer for Newsweek, covering anything and everything sports betting related. His main focus ..
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