Next tropical storm is brewing in the Caribbean with high-impact potential

With only , yet another threat is brewing in the Caribbean. Forecasters are keeping an eye on an area of agitated weather that could organize into a tropical storm, which would be named Sara –– the 18th named storm of the season. Here are the current developments we are watching for in the Caribbean Sea.

Disorganized storms have a high chance to strengthen into a tropical depression later this week. It is forecast to slowly move in the west Caribbean sea, nearly stalling in a low shear, high moisture environment, which is ideal for strengthening. Further strengthening is likely through the weekend, but how strong it will get is uncertain.



With that being said, a hurricane development cannot be ruled out. The consistent stall with the models brings a risk for significant rainfall to Central America by the weekend, with 100-200+ mm along the coast possible. The next tropical storm name is Sara, and would be the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

While the storm undergoes development, rough surf in the Caribbean Sea can be expected in the short range. High pressure is likely to eventually develop over the east Caribbean, helping to steer the tropical disturbance towards land. The strength and location of the high will alter the storm’s track, which is highly uncertain beyond this weekend.

High is stronger or located closer to Cuba, forcing the tropical activity west towards Mexico. High is weaker or located east of Cuba, forcing the tropical activity north towards Cuba and Florida. There has only been three times on record that Florida been hit by a hurricane in November.

We do not have a named storm currently, so all forecast details beyond it developing are highly uncertain. There is high uncertainty in exact impacts, strength and storm track..