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March 31, 2025 This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies . Editors have highlightedthe following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: fact-checked peer-reviewed publication trusted source proofread by University of Otago A University of Otago—Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka-led study is developing innovative methods to accurately predict how ice sheets and glaciers are deforming and moving. Just published in the journal Nature Geoscience , the study features researchers from the Universities of Cambridge, Pennsylvania and Maryland.
It investigates ice deformation, a key process in the movement of glaciers and ice sheets that has been significantly impacted by climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures make ice sheets thinner at the edges so that ice and meltwater enter the ocean, which makes the sea level rise. Lead author Dr.
Sheng Fan, of Otago's Department of Geology, says being able to estimate sea level rise is important to protect communities from flooding and plan for coastal erosion . "One of the key parts of how scientists do this is based on a model called flow law, a mathematical equation that describes the physics of how ice flows," Dr. Fan says.
There are currently two commonly used flow laws, but they do not capture the full complexity of ice behaviors. "We need a more precise flow law so we can reduce prediction errors, especially with the way climate change is progressing." Researchers gathered 70 years' worth of data from experiments around the world—including New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and France—to form a detailed database.
The research used advanced statistical methods that account for uncertainties and limitations of previous ice-flow models, enabling more reliable predictions about future ice-sheet movement. Professor David Prior, of the Department of Geology, says the study is significant. "There are lots of things that contribute to sea level rise and the future of the ice sheet is probably the biggest uncertainty.
"This study illustrates that we need to describe the behavior of the ice much more precisely, particularly if we want to use ice sheet modeling as a predicting tool. If we want our predictions of ice movement over the next few decades to be robust, we need to get the physics right." More information: Sheng Fan et al, Flow laws for ice constrained by 70 years of laboratory experiments, Nature Geoscience (2025).
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01661-z Journal information: Nature Geoscience Provided by University of Otago.
