2 weeks Ago By Tom Bawden
Scientists have warned the risk of a new Covid wave has increased after the government confirmed a new dominant variant has taken hold.Known as the LP family, the LP.8.
1 and LP.8.1.
1 variants saw their combined share of new Covid infections in England almost triple to 60 per cent in just two weeks, meaning they now account for the majority of cases, according to the latest data from the UK Health Security Agency.In December, the LP variants accounted for less than 1 per cent of cases.if(window.
adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "inread-hb-ros-inews"}); }Scientists warned, after a prolonged four-month period of low infection levels in the UK, the rapid growth of the so-called “LP family” variants could drive a new wave of Covid wave – but said it was too early to say.
But, with the fifth anniversary of the first lockdown falling on Monday, they did say another new wave is very likely at some point this year, with the LP variants expected make any wave bigger than it would otherwise have been.Although the variants may well drive a new wave or potential multiple waves, they are unlikely to cause a peak as witnessed during the pandemic, scientists said. “There will definitely be a new covid wave at some point – and it might well be this variant that does it.
But it’s too soon to tell,” Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London, told The i Paper.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l1"}); }“But if a new Covid wave starts in England, it will come from these variants and it’s something I will keep an eye on over the coming weeks,” she said.Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University added: “It’s almost inevitable that we will see another wave this year, probably more than one.
”“The virus continues to evolve at a high rate and our population immunity from vaccines is waning because of poor coverage, limited access and the exorbitant price of private immunisation.”“Prevalence remains low by most estimations – but assuming that the UK population is partially susceptible to the new strains this could change rapidly,” he added.Professor Paul Hunter, of University of East Anglia, said: “I think it absolutely certain that we will see another wave of infections at some point and probably within the next 12 months.
”“But I suspect the next wave will have fewer severe disease and deaths than previous waves. In general, Covid infections have become less severe over time as immunity levels have risen.”The first lockdown and 2020 in retrospective 23 March: First lockdown announced:Boris Johnson tells people they must stay at home, and may only leave for essential reasons, including buying food and exercising, once a day.
He describes Covid as “the biggest threat this country has faced for decades” and urges the public to stay at home and clap the NHS.10 May: Lockdown eased:As the weather starts to warm, Mr Johnson begins to relax the rules, saying people are now allowed to sunbathe in parks and exercise outdoors more than once per day.1 June: First pupils return to schoolChildren in Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 are allowed to return to the classroom for the first time in three months.
4 July: Pubs, salons and shops reopenCrowds flock to pubs and book hotels as lockdown restrictions ease around England. Holidays to an initial list of 73 countries, known as “travel corridor” destinations are allowed – though wearing masks on flights, rapid flow tests and socially distanced seating on airplanes remained mandatory.12 October: Regional tier system introducedDifferent regions are put in different tiers with a higher or lower level of restrictions depending on the severity of outbreaks in each region.
The aim is to avoid a second national lockdown but the system attracts criticism for being unenforceable and confusing. Liverpool City is the only area placed in the top tier, tier three – banning people from socialising indoors.LP8.
1 – a descendent from JN1 (the dominant variant in the UK this time last year) – was first recorded in California in July last year and has since been detected in more than 23 countries around the world.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l2"}); }It is not thought to be any more severe than the other main variants circulating at the moment, while early research suggests current vaccines are similarly effective against LP8.1 than they are against the previous dominant strain, XEC.
However, preliminary research indicates the LP variants are more infectious than XEC, which is why its spreading faster.The latest data from the UKHSA showed the combined share of LP.8.
1 and LP.8.1.
1 subvariant jumped from 22.3 per cent on 9 Feb to 60 per cent on 23 February (the latest period for which reliable data is available) – and it is expected to have risen further since.Meanwhile, the latest figures on Covid rates overall found the virus continues to be at by far the lowest level it has been for at least two year – with cases relatively low and fairly stable since the start of the year.
The figures showed the proportion of hospital patients in England testing positive for Covid was 3.5 per cent in the week to Sunday 16 March, compared to 3.3 per cent the week before.
This is less than a quarter of the 14.6 per cent ‘positivity rate’ in October and barely a fifth the peak of 16.6 per cent seen last summer.
While Covid rates have been at similar levels in the past – in July 2023 and March 2024 – those troughs were much more short-lived than they are this time.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l3"}); }Scientists cautioned the new Government data cannot be taken as a precise estimate for the level of Covid in the general population because it is only based on hospital patients.However, they say these “positivity rate” figures are a good indicator of trends for the virus more generally across the UK.
Dr Gayatri Amirthalingam, UKHSA Deputy Director, said: “It is normal for viruses to mutate and change over time. UKHSA is monitoring all available data relating to SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK and abroad, and continues to publish our findings in our regular Flu and Covid-19 surveillance reports.“As per our most recent report, two variants – LP8.
1 and LP8.1.1 – currently account for the majority of cases in the UK.
Based on the available data, there is no evidence to suggest that either of these causes more severe disease than previous variants.”Spring booster campaign Booking for the spring 2025 booster campaign, which will run from April 1 to June 17, 2025, will begin on Tuesday.Those eligible will be:• adults aged 75 years and over;• residents in a care home for older adults; and• individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
GPs will contact those who are eligible to invite them to sign up for a spring booster. You can also book through the national booking system (which goes live on Tuesday) at this website:Or using the NHS app for Apple or Android.And you can find your nearest walk-in vaccination site from the NHS website.
Around 9.8 million people in England, out of the estimated 20 million who were eligible, had a Covid jab in the 2024 autumn booster campaign.The uptake among under-65s with weakened immune systems was particularly low at around 22 per cent of those eligible in England taking up the offer of a free jab.
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