2 weeks Ago
From their rivals’ surge in 2020, to the voter purge of 2021, to this Election Day, New Hampshire Republicans have emerged with a big advantage in registered voters. Four years ago, state Democrats had an all-time high of 347,828 registered voters and their most substantial lead over Republicans ever. Now, there are nearly 82,000 fewer registered Democrats than they had in 2020, and they once again lag behind.
In the last year, Republican registrations have outpaced Democrats more than 24 to 1. As of Oct. 29, state Republicans have gone from having 14,000 fewer registered voters in 2020 to passing Democrats by 38,415 people on the checklist.
Will the sizable swing lead to a November surprise? “I’m not worried about the registration numbers right now,” N.H. House Democratic Leader Matt Wilhelm said.
“All I know is, folks are ready to show up and vote for their values, which is going to mean a strong night for Democrats across the state.” NHGOP Chairman Chris Ager said Republicans have more momentum than Democrats may realize. “We have very motivated local town committees and Trump supporters who have been working steadily,” Ager said via email last week.
Undaunted, Wilhelm said, no, it's Democrats who have what late President George H.W. Bush once called the “Big Mo.
” “From a Democratic enthusiasm perspective, we’ve seen incredible energy across the state for showing up to vote for the vice president, for governor, for the congressional seats and then obviously the down-ballot races,” said Wilhelm, a state representative from Manchester. State law mandates a purge of inactive voters every 10 years, so in September 2021, 174,060 people who hadn’t voted in the previous two election cycles were stricken from voter checklists if they didn’t respond to the notification they received via mail. From Election Day 2020 to the 2021 cleanup, Democrats and Republicans both lost 20% of their registered voters.
Undeclared voters, which have been the largest voting block since 2002, fell even more, dropping nearly 26%. That’s all pretty normal, state officials said. “Since the 2024 presidential general election is the first presidential general election since the verification, we do expect an increase in election-day registrations,” said Anna Sventek, spokesperson for the state Secretary of State’s Office.
The checklist purge was done irrespective of political party and nothing nefarious was reported, said Ariana Mischik, of the New Hampshire ACLU. There were 217,448 fewer registered voters leading up to this Election Day than there were on Nov. 8, 2020, despite a 2% increase in the state’s population.
Undeclared voters now make up 37% of the rolls, followed by Republicans with 34% and Democrats down to 29%. Democrats said they’re banking on the state’s same-day voter registration law to get thousands of new voters to the polls. “I think we’re going to see high Democratic turnout on Election Day,” Wilhelm said.
“I’m not sure how the purge will play into that, but I’m really glad we have same-day voter registration in this state. That’s the opportunity for folks to show up. If they’re on the list, great, and if they’re not, they’ll be registering to vote.
” Town clerks across the state have been inundated with absentee ballots and last-minute voter registration, which in the past was used as a barometer for Democratic success. But more Republicans are embracing mail-in voting nationwide this year, and it’s increasingly difficult to predict how the early numbers and same-day registration will shake out, officials said. Despite New Hampshire's presidential preference for Democrats seemingly holding steady in the last five general elections, two of those contests were decided by fewer than 10,000 votes (2004 and 2016).
Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated former President Donald Trump by only 2,736 votes in 2016. Another boost for Republicans might come from President Joe Biden shunning the first-in-the-nation primary in January. However, he did win going away as a write-in candidate.
Ager said Vice President Kamala Harris might not be able to shed her association with Biden, especially as newer residents move to the state seeking a lower cost of living. “People moving into the state have been fleeing our neighbors' tax-and-spend policies coupled with the dismal performance by the Biden/Harris administration have contributed,” Ager said. Wilhelm said not so fast.
He sees Democrats having a chance to run the table, including taking back the New Hampshire House. “I think we’ve got some tough elections to win. These maps are very tight, but with one election cycle behind us in 2022 where the House was decided by 11 votes across just three seats.
We’ve launched an unprecedented campaign that found really incredible candidates and have been laser focused on talking about the issues that Granite Staters actually care about. So, we’re bullish about our chances and hopeful for Tuesday,” Wilhelm said. Turnout on both sides is expected to be big, Secretary of State David Scanlan said last week, predicting a record 824,000 voters .
That would mean an unrealistic 91% turnout of people already registered, well above the 72.2% turnout in 2020. Most likely, it means tens of thousands of same-day registrants.
On that, both parties agree. [email protected].
