2 days Ago By Joel Schlesinger, for the Calgary Herald
Reviews and recommendations are unbiased and products are independently selected. Postmedia may earn an affiliate commission from purchases made through links on this page. This year may not see Calgary’s real estate market at its peak, a new report forecasts, but 2025 is likely to finish historically strong by many measures — even amid a threat of a trade war.
“It’s the same story across the Prairies markets,” says Michael Mak, housing economist with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. “We expect a continued, strong resale market in 2025.” CMHC’s recently released 2025 Housing Market Outlook shows Calgary will see slowing population growth from record highs in previous years, resulting from the federal government slashing international migration quotas.
Yet the city will still see strong inter-provincial migration, largely from more pricier real estate markets like Toronto and Vancouver, it adds. Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Last year, Calgary saw about 34,600 resales, down slightly from 2023 and more than 4,000 below 2022 — a record for activity.
The report forecasts two outcomes for sales this year. The low estimate, driven by deepening trade strife between the United States and Canada, would see the average resale price remain flat at about $620,000. Sales could be about 2,000 transactions lower than 2024.
One cushion, Mak adds, would be the Bank of Canada likely slashing its interest rate more than expected. In a best-case scenario — one where trade troubles dissipate and interest rates fall slightly — could see about 38,000 sales, approaching the 2022 record of 38,694. In that environment, the average price could reach $670,000.
CMHC also predicts that 2026 and 2027 would see further price and sales declines in an unfavourable environment. The high forecast would see largely flat or modest growth for both. Another headwind could be a softening rental market, Mak says.
“We saw a jump in vacancy in fall 2024.” The report shows vacancy moved from 1.4 per cent in Calgary in fall 2023 to 4.
8 per cent this past fall. The increase has likely been driven by a surge in new multi-family, purpose-built rental construction last year. CMHC forecasts rising vacancies this year, reaching 5.
8 per cent, and then decreasing slightly in 2026 and 2027. Record construction helped increase supply on the rental side with more than 17,000 starts last year, accounting for the 24,369 total starts. Mak notes many of the condominium starts could be destined for the city’s sizable secondary rental market, which only has a vacancy rate of 1.
3 per cent..
