5 days Ago By Scott Billeck
A slight dip in support won’t prevent Manitoba New Democrats from ending 2024 on a high. Read this article for free: Already have an account? To continue reading, please subscribe: * A slight dip in support won’t prevent Manitoba New Democrats from ending 2024 on a high. Read unlimited articles for free today: Already have an account? A slight dip in support won’t prevent Manitoba New Democrats from ending 2024 on a high.
Premier Wab Kinew’s party continues to hold a significant grip on the population, with more than half of Manitobans saying they’d vote for him again, as per a -Probe Research poll. “It’s very much the same,” Probe partner Mary Agnes Welch said. “The NDP is still in a good phase.
” The December omnibus survey suggests 53 per cent would cast a ballot for the NDP, down three percentage points from September, but still eight points higher than the 45 per cent of the vote they garnered in the 2023 provincial election. Kinew’s support in Winnipeg, where he took 28 of 32 seats in the 2023 vote, remains extremely strong; the poll found 61 per cent preferred his party, up about 10 percentage points from the election. NDP support is high across the board, including in the suburbs (61 per cent), which are traditionally more conservative.
“You can’t win a provincial election without winning much of Winnipeg,” University of Manitoba political studies adjunct Prof. Christopher Adams said. Winnipeg was referred to by the Progressive Conservatives as “Fortress Winnipeg” during the NDP years under Gary Doer and into Greg Selinger’s first term, Adams said.
“So, I always look to see if Winnipeg is looking like a fortress again, and it does look like it,” Adams said. “I would say the PCs are going downward rather than upward in Winnipeg. They need to work on that.
” Two factors are contributing to that, including the extended honeymoon for Kinew and the lack of a permanent leader of the PC party, he said. “Their opposition has been muted somewhat since the last election,” Adams said. “A number of us political studies folks (expect) the PCs to sort of start to come back after their next convention.
” The survey found one-third of Manitobans approve of the work interim PC leader Wayne Ewasko is doing. Ewasko will make way for Fort Whyte MLA Obby Khan or longtime PC member Wally Daudrich when the party picks a new leader in April. “We remain focused on holding the NDP accountable on behalf of Manitobans, whether it’s ER closures, skyrocketing surgical and diagnostic wait times, out-of-control crime or the growing cost-of-living crisis,” Ewasko said in an email Friday.
“After 14 months in office, the NDP has yet to show Manitobans a long-term plan or vision for the future of our province.” That hasn’t stunted Kinew’s popularity. “We will continue to work hard every day to (fix) our health-care system after years of cuts under Heather Stefanson and the PCs and make your life more affordable.
” Kinew remains the most popular premier in Canada, with a 67 per cent approval rating, a recent Angus Reid survey found. His rating climbed one percentage point since September. Women (64 per cent), most demographic groups, Indigenous (61 per cent) and racialized voters (60 per cent), and voters with higher formal education (66 per cent) are more likely to back the NDP.
Adams said when the PCs win elections in Manitoba, there’s no difference between men and women in their support for the PCs or the NDP. While 44 per cent of men support the PCs, only 25 per cent of women would vote the same way. “The PCs, as they get toward the next election, have to improve their support in Winnipeg, and their support among women,” Adams said, noting that when former premier Brian Pallister was successful, he ran ads that appealed to women by softening his image.
Welch said she wonders whether Kinew’s honeymoon period is starting to dip slightly. She pointed to a question that asked Manitobans their feelings about Kinew and his government. While the majority of Manitobans continue to feel positive about the NDP administration, those who described themselves as “enthusiastic” and “happy” dipped slightly compared with September figures.
More people shifted to feeling “satisfied” and “indifferent,” while negative emotions — “disappointed” and upset” — dropped slightly. The number of people who identified as “angry” increased slightly. Overall negative emotions fell five percentage points to 16 per cent in September, while positive feelings dropped two points, to 54 per cent.
“I wonder if it will be a harbinger of whether or not the honeymoon is over,” Welch said. “An extraordinary honeymoon period brings really high expectations, and the only place to go is down. Soon, we are going to be asking about real progress in health care and homelessness.
” Adams questioned whether those nagging issues will affect the next poll results in March. For its part, the NDP said it will stay the course. “We will continue to work hard every day to (fix) our health-care system after years of cuts under Heather Stefanson and the PCs and make your life more affordable,” an NDP spokesperson said in an email Friday.
Support for the Tories remained unchanged at 34 per cent despite a two-point dip in Winnipeg. The Liberals have plummeted to seven per cent support from 15 per cent since the last election. Adams suggested the lack of a permanent leader is a factor.
Twenty-four per cent of those polled approved of interim leader Cindy Lamoureux, a drop of six points from September. Winnipeg Jets Game Days On Winnipeg Jets game days, hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe send news, notes and quotes from the morning skate, as well as injury updates and lineup decisions. Arrives a few hours prior to puck drop.
“I think the Liberal brand is very poor right now in Manitoba, and the federal Liberals, as they do poorly, it often overlaps with the provincial Liberals in terms of their popularity,” Adams said. The NDP lost ground outside Winnipeg, down five points to 43 per cent from September — statistically tied with the Progressive Conservatives. “It’s highly unusual,” Adams said, with the caveat of a smaller sample of people polled outside the city.
“Regardless, it shows the NDP is strong across the province.” The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was taken from Nov. 26 to Dec.
10. The poll is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
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ca Scott Billeck is a general assignment reporter for the . A Creative Communications graduate from Red River College, Scott has more than a decade’s worth of experience covering hockey, football and global pandemics. He joined the Free Press in 2024.
. Every piece of reporting Scott produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the ‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about , and .
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Thank you for your support. Scott Billeck is a general assignment reporter for the . A Creative Communications graduate from Red River College, Scott has more than a decade’s worth of experience covering hockey, football and global pandemics.
He joined the Free Press in 2024. . Every piece of reporting Scott produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the ‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism.
Read more about , and . Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider .
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