2 weeks Ago By Firstpost
On November 8, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) issued an ultimatum. The group stated that if its demands for a separate flag and constitution are not accepted by the central government, it will resume its armed insurgency. The NSCN-IM is the oldest among the many insurgent groups in the state and has a significant number of members.
On November 21, the Nagaland Chief Minister led a delegation to New Delhi to discuss the issue with the Union Home Minister. Under normal circumstances, such a threat would have caused alarm in New Delhi; however, the central government hasn’t issued any statement, suggesting that it does not attach much importance to the threat. The group’s desperate demands are unlikely to be granted.
While the NSCN-IM’s threat was considered newsworthy and was provided wide coverage by newspapers and websites, a similar demand issued a week back by another umbrella organisation of seven insurgent groups in Nagaland was mostly ignored. On October 31, the Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs), which is in consultation with the central government, asked the latter to implement measures such as a separate page in Indian passports for the Nagas and a bicameral legislature in Nagaland. The NNPG said these demands should be fulfilled by the end of 2024.
The government hasn’t responded to this demand as well. Aptly called the mother of all Indian insurgencies, the Naga insurgency originally sought a unified and independent homeland of Naga-inhabited areas of India and Myanmar. Over the years, however, there has been a drastic climbdown in their demands by the NSCN-IM and the newer groups under the NNPG.
Both now seek shared sovereignty — a special status for the state under the Indian constitution. However, even those demands may be difficult for New Delhi to grant. Much of it has to do with the diminishing fighting ability of the NSCN-IM.
Headed by its general secretary, 90-year-old Thuingaleng Muivah, the group boasts a cadre strength of about 5000, but it has not been fighting the Indian state for the last 27 years, ever since it entered into a ceasefire agreement with New Delhi in 1997. In the initial years after the agreement, most of the NSCN-IM’s armed conflict was with its bete noire, the Khaplang faction (NSCN-K). The group also carried out widespread ‘tax collection’ drives with its armed cadres moving out in the open and collecting money to fund its existence.
However, none of those actions can be equated with the capacity of the group to begin an armed campaign against the Indian state. There are reasons to believe that internal divisions have weakened the group’s internal cohesion. For instance, in March 2024, fourteen top ‘officers’ of the group’s military wing revolted against their commander-in-chief, “Lt.
Gen.” Anthony Ningkhan Shimray. They accused Shimray of being an agent of New Delhi, trying to break the revolutionary groups in the northeast.
Shimray had been arrested in September 2010 from Kathmandu airport while on his way to India from Bangkok, allegedly for negotiating an arms deal with a Chinese company. He spent the next six years in Tihar jail in Delhi, but was released on bail on 4 August 2016 by a special court of the National Investigative Agency (NIA) after the public prosecutor pleaded that his release was in the interest of the peace negotiation between the Nagas and Indian government. After his release, Shimray was made the longvibu (commander-in-Chief of the Naga Army), but went on to reveal that he has been tasked by the government to bring the insurgencies of the region overground.
The ‘officers’ who revolted wondered if Shimray now serves the interests of the NSCN-IM or the Government of India. They cited several instances of how Shimray has weakened the military strength of the organization. In response, Shimray’s loyalists within NSCN-IM termed this rebellion as a mutiny and sought to ‘nip it in the bud’.
Shimray continues to remain the longvibu and coordinator of the ‘Indo-Naga peace talks’. The 8 November issue of ultimatum is a desperate attempt by Mr. Muivah to keep his flock together.
The NSCN-IM holds on to the Framework Agreement it signed with New Delhi in 2015 as a holy grail that recognises the unique history of the Nagas and as a commitment by the central government to grant a separate flag and constitution. New Delhi’s interpretation of the Framework Agreement, however, is markedly different. The style and content of the negotiation by the government’s interlocutor in the post-2015 period suggest that New Delhi has no intention of providing any special status to Nagaland.
It is noteworthy that for the past few years, there hasn’t been an interlocutor for the talks between the two sides, but only a representative of the Central Government, a former chief of the Intelligence Bureau. An elusive solution to the Naga conflict is taking a toll on the group, which now calls for a third-party intervention to break the deadlock. New Delhi has pursued a similar strategy with the more pliable NNPGs.
Somewhat similar to the Framework Agreement, the NNPGs signed the “Agreed Position” agreement with New Delhi in October 2017. The group interprets the agreement as New Delhi’s recognition of the Naga identity “with a separate page in the Indian passport, a separate contingent of Nagas in all international events and an enhanced representation in both Houses of Parliament”. Interestingly, NNPGs term NSCN-IM’s demand for unification of all Naga inhabited areas in northeast India as impractical.
However, their own demand, in the assessment of New Delhi, could be no less illogical. Similar to the NSCN-IM, the non-implementation of the “Agreed Position” agreement has started creating divisions within the seven-member NNPGs. Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio who favours a political solution to the Naga conflict has hinted at the divisions within the NNPG .
Both the NSCN-IM and the NNPGs initiated a process of collaboration in September 2022 by signing a joint accord and forming the ‘Council of Naga Relationships and Cooperation’. The move purportedly was to deal with the delays in solving the Naga issue and resist divisions among the Nagas. However, the move towards unity hasn’t progressed further given the distinct objectives pursued by both.
In December 2023, the NSCN-IM denounced the NNPGs as “treacherous, traitorous, disloyal and perfidious”. As desperation rises among the insurgent groups, New Delhi apparently hopes that prolonged negotiations may eventually lead to the dismemberment of the insurgencies. New Delhi’s best bet is the growing peace-loving Naga population who have no appetite for another period of unrest, instability, and insurgency.
While the events have unfolded as per the script so far, New Delhi needs to watch out for the geopolitical events in the region. Plummeting India-Bangladesh bilateral relations and the continuing civil war situation in Myanmar could play crucial roles in shaping the future moves of the Naga insurgent groups. The writer is the Director of Mantraya, a Goa-based research forum and the author of ‘National Security Decision-making in India’.
He formerly served as a Deputy Director in the National Security Council Secretariat. He tweets @BibhuRoutray. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.
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