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High voltage power lines are seen in Beauharnois, Que., on Jan. 27.
Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press The electricity systems of Quebec and Nova Scotia will be particularly vulnerable to electricity shortages during future extreme weather events such as cold snaps and heat waves, a new study has found. Released Tuesday by the Atlanta-based North American Electric Reliability Corp., the study examined the ability to transfer electricity between provinces and U.
S. states under summer and winter conditions. NERC found that Canada’s existing transmission infrastructure is adequate under a wide variety of scenarios, “except under the most challenging conditions.
” However, the study also forecast expected conditions in 2033, accounting for plans to retire or build new power assets, and anticipated consumption from new industrial plants and data centres. Quebec faces by far the largest energy deficits of any province – up to 10 gigawatts – during extreme cold winter events in the years ahead, largely owing to growing demand. For comparison, 10 gigawatts is more than five times the capacity of public utility Hydro-Québec’s Beauharnois generating station on the St.
Lawrence River, which has 36 turbines and is one of the province’s largest hydro dams. NERC, which is responsible for ensuring reliability and security of North America’s bulk power system, also identified vulnerabilities in most other provinces studied. Nova Scotia faces shortages under a wide range of conditions.
Only British Columbia and Manitoba exhibited no resource deficiencies, whatever the weather. Alberta and Nova Scotia are among Canada’s most isolated provinces, capable of importing 10 per cent or less of their peak electricity load requirements. New Brunswick, by contrast, can import 82 per cent of its peak summer load requirements.
Though NERC’s study acknowledged other options for plugging these deficiencies, including building new generating plants and conserving energy, it only considered new transmission projects, which can take a decade or longer to plan and construct. Nova Scotia’s troubles could be addressed by adding 500 megawatts of transfer capability with New Brunswick, for example. “Quebec, because the deficit was so big, we ended up increasing transfer capability to each of its neighbours: to Ontario and New York and New England and New Brunswick,” said Saad Malik, NERC’s manager of transmission assessments.
Mr. Malik noted new transmission projects are already under construction between Quebec, New York and New England. Although not large enough to address Quebec’s yawning deficit, “they definitely will help,” he said.
François Bouffard, an associate professor at McGill University’s electrical engineering department, said that while beefing up interconnections with neighbours “is never a bad idea,” it’s also expensive. “What’s the cost to Hydro-Québec, and ultimately the ratepayer, to have standby capacity that’s barely used throughout the year, just to be able to ride through these very, very significant peaks?” Prof. Bouffard said.
On the other hand, he added, few Quebec residents have backup heating: “Losing power in Quebec when it’s -20 C outside is politically not a good thing for Hydro-Québec and the Quebec government.” Prof. Bouffard said the challenges identified by NERC are well understood.
Hydro-Québec has increased investments in building new generation facilities in response, and recently announced an energy efficiency program to reduce consumption. Hydro-Québec did not grant an interview to explore the NERC study’s findings Tuesday. NERC’s findings clash with those of its most recent assessment of long-term electricity reliability.
Released in December, that assessment concluded Quebec is unlikely to experience electricity supply shortfalls between 2025 and 2029. But that earlier study considered electricity reliability under normal conditions, Mr. Malik said, whereas the one released Tuesday focused on extreme events.
The latest study, which was ordered before U.S. President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, explicitly ignored tariffs and other trade policies.
But owing to Mr. Trump’s trade war against Canada and threats to Canadian sovereignty, cross-border co-operation between the two countries has become strained. This year, provincial governments in Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and B.
C. have publicly discussed curtailing electricity transfers into the U.S.
Concerns about poor integration of Canada’s electricity grid go back many decades, and proposals to improve matters have met limited success. Generally, Canada’s international ties with the U.S.
have higher transfer capability than those between provinces. During Canada’s federal election campaign, the Liberals promised to “build out Canada’s east-west electricity grid” and open new markets for utilities such as Hydro-Québec and Manitoba Hydro..
