More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast. Is this the new normal?

Since the turn of the century, major hurricanes hitting the U.S. have had one key feature in common.

Location. The Gulf of Mexico coastline transformed into a bullseye for major storms, which have taken aim from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Marco Island and destroyed communities in their wake. Eighteen hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher have made landfall along the continental U.



S. since 1999. All but one slammed into the Gulf Coast.

The pattern is even more stark since 2017: All 10 major hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. struck communities along the gulf — including six in Florida.

Milton and Helene, occurring not even two weeks apart, are the latest in the streak that’s left Floridians collectively wondering why. Hurricane experts say storms are growing more intense — and more quickly — largely because of warming seas. Tropical cyclones transform heat from the ocean surface into the movement of winds, so warmer waters allow storms to spin faster.

The Tampa Bay Times reviewed nearly 600 storm tracks and corresponding sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean basin over the last four decades. Reporters relied on methods used by hurricane researchers to compare storms that underwent rapid intensification — which occurs when maximum wind speeds increase by 35 mph in a day — to ones that didn’t. The analysis showed that warmer ocean temperatures increase the chances of stronger storms developing by 50%.

Most tropical cyclones that have rapidly intensified over the past 40 years have encountered abnormally warm water, the Times found. In the gulf, that phenomenon means hurricanes can easily become supercharged. “Anything that gets loose in the gulf is going to basically have double the damage potential it used to, compared to 100 years ago,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

About 3 out of every 4 major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico have traveled over record-hot waters. Half of all hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast over the past 25 years were classified as major storms at landfall. Weather patterns have also steered storms toward the gulf in recent years, but scientists are unsure whether those forces are natural, fueled by climate change or a mix of both.

Future storms could wreak even more havoc. Sea-level rise is expected to compound storm surge, inundating communities further inland. Increasing rainfall — both from routine thunderstorms and tropical systems — will saturate the ground, creating an environment ripe for flash flooding.

Spring Oaks resident Earline Gonzales talks about the rising waters from the Little Wekiva River in her flooded neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to rise in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A linesman contractor for Duke Energy works on power lines along Forest City Road in Orlando. Friday, Oct. 11, 2024.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Floodwaters from the Little Wekiva River provide a still reflection of a home on Little Wekiva Road in the Spring Oaks neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Fla., Friday, Oct. 11, 2024.

Central Florida rivers are forecast to crest in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A Spring Oaks resident checks out the rising floodwaters from the Little Wekiva River on Spring Oaks Blvd. in his neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Fla.

, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to crest in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) ‘Florida Strong’ in a shuttered home along Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa, in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. .

.(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) “Belle Vista’s Yard of the Month” sign atop the debris and discarded household goods from hurricane Helene, are once-again drenched by the rains of hurricane Milton, in the Belle Vista home of Jeff and Andrea DeNight, in St. Pete Beach, on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. ..

(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) List of hurricanes a home along Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa has survived, in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. .

.(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) “Belle Vista’s Yard of the Month” sign atop the debris and discarded household goods from hurricane Helene, are once-again drenched by the rains of hurricane Milton, in the Belle Vista home of Jeff and Andrea DeNight, in St. Pete Beach, on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. ..

(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) Cars navigate standing water on West Gandy Boulevard & South Mound Avenue in Tampa, in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. .

.(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) The domed roof of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.

is damaged in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. .

.(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) Hurricane Milton toppled a construction crane in downtown St. Petersburg, on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. ..

(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) Debris and discarded household goods from hurricane Helene, are once-again drenched by the rains of hurricane Milton, at the entrance to Belle Vista neighborhood in St. Pete Beach, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

..(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) A tree fell onto two homes in Palmetto in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) Debris and discarded household goods from hurricane Helene, are once-again drenched by the rains of hurricane Milton, in the Belle Vista neighborhood in St. Pete Beach, on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. ..

(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) A Spring Oaks resident checks out the rising floodwaters from the Little Wekiva River on Spring Oaks Boulevard in his neighborhood in Altamonte Springs on Friday, October 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to crest in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A linesman contractor for Duke Energy works on power lines along Forest City Road in Orlando.

Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Damaged by high winds from hurricane Milton, part of the sign at Kappy's Subs in Maitland dangles over the parking lot, Friday, Oct.

11, 2024. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Everoak Farm volunteer Patrick Lang, front, and Andrew Smith harvest sugar cane that could be salvaged after heavy winds and water from Hurricane Milton wrecked and flooded crops on the Orlando farm. (Rich Pope, Orlando Sentinel) Everoak Farm owner Mike Garcia shows a freshly planted cabbage crop that was destroyed by the water and heavy winds from Hurricane Milton on the Orlando farm.

(Rich Pope, Orlando Sentinel) Janét Buford-Johnson, left, stands with her neighbor Marisel Jacobo in Orange County’s Orlo Vista community, which experienced flooding in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, on Oct. 11, 2024. (Patrick Connolly/Orlando Sentinel) Two beach-goers walk through fallen debris at a public beach access off of Ocean Avenue on Siesta Key on Friday, Oct.

11, 2024. The usually-packed white sand beaches have been largely deserted since Hurricane Milton made landfall late Wednesday evening. (Steven Walker/Orlando Sentinel) A boat, thrown from its dock, sits in front of a home on Norsota Way in Siesta Key on Friday, Oct.

11, 2024. Hurricane Milton made landfall on the island, located adjacent from Sarasota late Wednesday evening. (Steven Walker/Orlando Sentinel) A resident wades through his flooded street on Weathersfield Ave.

in the Springs Oaks subdivision in Altamonte Springs, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, following the overnight impact of Hurricane Milton. Sporadic flooding was reported across Central Florida as the storm’s rainfall overwhelmed area lakes and rivers.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A crew works on power lines that were pulled down by a tree that fell in Winter Garden as Hurricane Milton crossed the state on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel) In the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Curtis Edwards and his neighbors uses chainsaws to cut an oak tree blocking the road on Nellie Oaks Bend in Clermont that came down during the hurricane on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel) A resident gets piggy-backed by a friend across flooded Seminole Boulevard in downtown Sanford, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

Much of the road that fronts Lake Monroe flooded as a result of Hurricane Milton’s overnight impact in the area. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Lake Cherokee in Downtown Orlando crested on the south side due to rain from Hurricane Milton on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

Their were ankle deep water in parts of the street and city crews were out clearing the drains. (Ryan Gillespie/Orlando Sentinel) Sand Lake Hills neighborhood in Orlando is flooded in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) Riverdale Road in Orlando is flooded in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Roger Simmons/Orlando Sentinel) Power lines that were pulled down by a tree that fell in Winter Garden as Hurricane Milton crossed the state on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel) An aerial view of Tropicana Field's shredded roof in downtown St. Petersburg, Fla.

, in the wake of Hurricane Milton early Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Max Chesnes/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Workers cut up a massive oak tree that toppled onto Dommerich Drive in Maitland, Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024, following the overnight impact of Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A traffic light is down on Orange Avenue in Downtown Orlando in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

(Kevin Spear/Orlando Sentinel) Sand Lake Hills neighborhood in Orlando is flooded in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) A water rescue boat moves in flood waters at an apartment complex in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024, in Clearwater, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) City of Sanford worker Ebony Pizarro secures caution tape on flooded Seminole Boulevard in downtown Sanford, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

Much of the road that fronts Lake Monroe flooded as a result of Hurricane Milton’s overnight impact in the area. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A construction crane fell over into an office building that houses the Tampa Bay Times headquarters, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

(Tampa Bay Times via AP) A house lies toppled off its stilts after the passage of Hurricane Milton, in Bradenton Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) Tornado damage is evident at the Publix at Avenir Town Center in Palm Beach Gardens on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Amy Beth Bennett / South Florida Sun Sentinel) A man walks through the Binks Estate neighborhood in Wellington survey damage on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024, after a tornado tore through overnight. (Amy Beth Bennett / South Florida Sun Sentinel) Father Matthew Hawkins works to remove a large oak branch that fell during Hurricane Milton at St. Paul Catholic Church in Leesburg on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) In the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Chuck Morgan clears debris from an oak tree blocking Nellie Oaks Bend in Clermont on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel) Mark Johnson and his friend’s son, Noah Klinger, 12, fish along a flooded portion of Edgewater Drive in College Park in between Lake Adair and Lake Concord in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 10, 2024.

(Patrick Connolly/Orlando Sentinel) Miguel Acevedo uses a leaf blower to remove debris off the roof of his Kissimmee home following Hurricane Milton's passage through the Central Florida region on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Rich Pope, Orlando Sentinel) Margot Jorgensen and Doug Dirk clean up debris from Hurricane Milton in the yard of their Kissimmee home, which sits across from East Lake Tohopekaliga, on Tuesday, Oct.

8, 2024. (Rich Pope, Orlando Sentinel) Cattle graze near a greenhouse damaged by Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Odessa, Fla.

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez) The roof of the Tropicana Field is damaged the morning after Hurricane Milton hit the region, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Fla.

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez) The roof of Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Rays, appeared to be badly damaged as Hurricane Milton passes Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Fla.

(Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Vuk Mitic, 39 and Jordan Bayliss, 20 work together to tie a boat that broke free from the dock overnight as Hurricane Milton moved through the area on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024 in Ruskin, Fla. (Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via AP) A downed tree lies across a road after the passage of Hurricane Milton, in downtown Tampa, Fla.

, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) A tree, brought down by Hurricane Milton, blocks a part of E.

E. Williamson Road in Longwood on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.

(Cassie Armstrong/Orlando Sentinel) Boats rest in a yard after they were washed ashore when Hurricane Milton passed through the area on Oct. 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida.

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) A group is silhouetted against a fallen crane along 1st Avenue South near the Tampa Bay Times offices in St. Petersburg, Florida, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, as Hurricane Milton's strong winds tore through the area.

(Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Boats at Marina Jack following Hurricane on Milton Oct. 10, 2024 in Sarasota, Florida. The storm made landfall at Siesta Key.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) The roof of Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Rays, appeared to be badly damaged as Hurricane Milton passes Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Fla.

(Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Edgewater Drive in College Park is flooded in between Lake Adair and Lake Concord in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 10, 2024. (Patrick Connolly/Orlando Sentinel) A stop sign askew on flooded Seminole Blvd.

in downtown Sanford, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. Much of the road that fronts Lake Monroe flooded as a result of Hurricane Milton’s overnight impact in the area.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) In this aerial view, Flood waters inundate a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on Oct. 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida.

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) Women look at an uprooted tree the morning after Hurricane Milton hit the region, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Odessa, Fla. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) In the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Steve Coning, Curtis Edwards, and Chuck Morgan use chainsaws to cut an oak tree blocking the road on Nellie Oaks Bend in Clermont on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel) Members of the media work in flooded streets after Hurricane Milton made landfall in the Sarasota area on Oct. 09, 2024, in Fort Myers, Florida.

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX *** A resident checks out the flooded street on Springs Oaks Blvd. in Altamonte Springs, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, following the overnight impact of Hurricane Milton.

Sporadic flooding was reported across Central Florida as the storm’s rainfall overwhelmed area lakes and rivers. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Gulf Search and Rescue team members discuss plans at a police blockade near a bridge to Siesta Key in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 10, 2024 near Siesta Key, Florida.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) A woman walks along a flooded street in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 10, 2024 in Osprey, Florida. The hurricane made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) A man and child leave a rescue boat after high flood waters entered their apartment in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Clearwater, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) A vehicle passes a traffic sign that fell down after Hurricane Milton near Davis Island neighborhood on Thursday, Oct.

10, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (Jefferee Woo/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Gov. Ron DeSantis is set to speak from Fort Pierce on Hurricane Milton damage.

This photo provided by Orange County Fire Rescue Department shows OCFRD along with OCSO working on water rescues after Hurricane Milton early Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024 in Orange County, Fla. (Orange County Fire Rescue Department via AP) A jeep drives through flooded Seminole Blvd.

in downtown Sanford, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. Much of the road that fronts Lake Monroe flooded as a result of Hurricane Milton’s overnight impact in the area.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Authorities blocked off a portion of Broadway Avenue north of Concord Street due to a downed tree. (Tyler Williams/Orlando Sentinel) Houses lie in ruins after sustaining tornado and flood damage from Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Matlacha, Fla.

(AP Photo/Marta Lavandier) A downed tree on Hardwood Street between Broadway Ave. and Cathcart Ave. in Lake Eola Heights left the street impassable and residents without power.

(Tyler Williams/Orlando Sentinel) Multiple trees fell down on Livingston Street across from the Hilton Garden Inn. (Tyler Williams/Orlando Sentinel) Spring Oaks resident Earline Gonzales talks about the rising waters from the Little Wekiva River in her flooded neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024.

Central Florida rivers are forecast to rise in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Already, gulf storms have been devastating, racking up hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and hundreds of lives lost. In Florida alone, from Fort Myers Beach to Steinhatchee, flooded homes remain unlivable after Milton and Helene bore their one-two punch.

The storms followed Hurricane Idalia, which ravaged the Big Bend in 2023 with a 10-foot storm surge. In the five-year span before that, Ian, Michael and Irma forever transformed stretches of the gulf’s coastline and left dozens dead. The very geography of the gulf puts communities along its shore at increased risk from strengthening storms.

A hurricane forming in the Atlantic or Caribbean has more open water to tread and fizzle out over. But once storms enter the gulf’s narrow mouth, they have nowhere to go but land. The only hope is that somehow they’ll weaken.

The gulf is warming at twice the rate of all other global seas and fueling storms like never before. An ocean heat wave that has decimated South Florida’s coral reefs and powered hyperactive hurricane seasons for at least two summers bears much of the blame for rapid intensification. “We’re in uncharted territory with ocean temperatures,” said Sam Lillo, a hurricane expert and former research associate with NOAA.

The heat waves are characterized by an ocean area having abnormally high sea surface temperatures, hotter than 90% of historical readings taken at the same place. In the gulf and the Atlantic, they’re a relatively new phenomenon. Widespread heat waves spanning hundreds of miles weren’t recorded until the ‘90s but have become more common.

Since scientists began measuring ocean heat waves, 2 out of every 3 rapidly-intensifying storms went through one of the hot spots, according to the Times analysis of storm paths and water temperature maps from NOAA. The numbers over the last decade are even more dramatic: All but two storms that rapidly intensified traveled over the unusually warm waters. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey strengthened from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane just two days before it struck the Texas coast.

The monster storm left thousands needing rescue from climbing floodwaters in Houston. In 2022, Hurricane Ian’s wind speeds nearly doubled within roughly 22 hours before it transformed into a powerful hurricane and made landfall days later in Southwest Florida. The Category 4 storm became the costliest hurricane in state history.

Last month, Hurricane Milton’s winds increased by a staggering 90 mph as it crossed the gulf’s blistering waters just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. It leaped from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours. Across all the tropical systems that the Times analyzed, the average ocean temperature was approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher in places where storms underwent rapid intensification than in areas where they didn’t.

Scientists have found that waters even 1 degree above average could do significant harm to marine life — like coral bleaching. Nearly half of all Atlantic Category 5 storms recorded over the last 40 years spawned in the last decade. Most weakened before making landfall, but every one underwent a rapid intensification cycle.

Four out of every 5 storms that reached Category 5 intensity encountered record-hot waters. “It’s quite possible we’ve entered a new era of increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Masters, the hurricane scientist. “And certainly, we have reached a new era of activity for more intense storms.

” Experts say that this type of strengthening isn’t a new phenomenon. But if waters continue to get warmer, the chance of a storm crossing a heat wave during its lifetime increases. Over the last quarter-century, rapid intensification has clustered in the gulf “It’s a matter of shifting the windows of opportunity and widening them,” Lillo said.

While ocean temperatures are a primary source of hurricane fuel, it’s not clear whether they cause more hurricanes. Only that they make powerful storms more likely. A flurry of deadly and damaging hurricanes during the mid-2000s made gulf storms like Katrina and Charley household names.

During those summers, water temperatures were close to normal and the string of storms didn’t last as long. Angry tropics calmed for about a decade, until 2017, when Harvey and Irma hit the Gulf Coast with ferocious intensity. That kicked off an eight-year streak of major gulf landfalls — an unprecedented frequency.

The last similar period was between 1945 and 1950, when five major hurricanes hit South Florida. “That’s the only comparable beating that we’ve taken in history,” Masters said. “And that wasn’t nearly as severe as what we endured the last eight years.

” Hurricane experts have theories about why recent landfalls have clustered along the gulf. Research has linked major weather patterns to tropical activity, which explains why hurricanes make landfall more often during some seasons, climatologists say. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern that influences water temperature and air pressure over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

It has three phases that shift irregularly every two to seven years — El Niño, La Niña and a neutral phase transitioning between the two. El Niño cycles typically bring warmer waters but damper storm formation and intensification. A La Niña has the opposite effect and is associated with less dry air and less wind shear to tear down hurricane strength.

El Niño and La Niña patterns also influence wind flows that control hurricane paths across the Atlantic. The jet stream, one such wind pattern, shifts north during a La Niña and steers hurricanes toward U.S.

landfall. To the surprise of several scientists, the Atlantic basin has suffered under frequent and lengthy La Niña cycles in recent years — all but two of the last seven seasons. That’s created more favorable hurricane conditions and winds that push more storms toward the gulf.

Adam Sobel, a climatologist with Columbia University, predicted eight years ago that El Niño phases, which are correlated with milder hurricane seasons, would dominate the next decade. When the opposite happened, Sobel and other researchers couldn’t explain why. “We’re in a period now of deep uncertainty,” he said.

It’s too soon to pin the unexpected shift on a warming world. Eight years is not enough time to draw definitive conclusions, according to scientists. But climate change will mimic the effects of strong La Niña phases and could make gulf landfalls more likely, said Lillo, the former research associate with NOAA.

“We don’t know how hurricane tracks are going to change with a changing climate,” Masters said. “Just that they will.” Predicting where a storm will hit even days before landfall is hard enough for forecasters, so anticipating landfall patterns over a season or decade is nearly impossible, experts said.

It’s unclear how long the gulf streak could continue, but Masters said he isn’t convinced it signals a “new normal.” It wasn’t too long ago that Florida went a decade without a single hurricane strike, from 2006 to 2015, he said. The gulf may not remain a magnet.

But another La Niña cycle is expected to begin before November ends. Hurricanes are largely considered random events, but experts are confident that tropical cyclones will become more intense and wetter in a warmer world. Climate change is already making water, the biggest killer during tropical systems, more deadly, said David Keelings, a University of Florida professor who researches climate extremes.

Storm surge is compounded by rising seas and hurricane wind speeds. Florida’s west coast is projected to see more than 1-foot of sea-level rise by 2050. That’s a best-case scenario.

And it could still put thousands more at risk of surge, including people who don’t live in evacuation zones. During Hurricane Helene, nearly 1 in 10 properties in Pinellas County were set for serious flooding, the Times found. A future storm with similar surge potential — coupled with higher seas — would be even more devastating.

Destroyed homes in the small community of Dekle Beach that was devastated by Hurricane Helene near Keaton Beach, Fla., on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

Helene thrashed Florida as a powerful hurricane, producing dangerous storm surge along the coast and bringing heavy winds and rain across the southeastern United States as it moved inland as a tropical storm on Friday. (Paul Ratje/The New York Times) Roys restaurant worker searches through the rubble at the demolished restaurant after Hurricane Helene landed in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. (Willie J. Allen Jr.

/Orlando Sentinel) High winds and gulf surges from Hurricane Helene pushed this cabin cruiser well onto the shore in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

(Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) Roys Restaurant owner Linda Wicker walks through the rubble of her restaurant after Hurricane Helene landed in Steinhatchee, Fla.

, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. Wicker has owned the restaurant for 20 years and reopened after damage from Hurricane Idalia last January.

(Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) Charles Webb and his wife Dana Webb stand in front of their rental home in which this tree came crashing down during Hurricane Helene in Steinhatchee, Fla.

, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (Willie J.

Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) Residents rescued from floodwaters make their way to safety in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024 in Crystal River.

(Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times/TNS) Air Station Clearwater saved a man & his dog on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024 during Hurricane Helene after his 36-ft sailboat became disabled & started taking on water approximately 25 miles off Sanibel Island. (United States Coast Guard Southeast/Courtesy) Workers clear debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Cedar Key, Fla.

, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert) Cross Conlin, an apprentice lineman from Duke Energy, uses an extension pole to trim palm fronds while restoring power on Thistle Lane in Maitland, Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. Hurricane Helene caused extensive power outages across Florida, impacting 1.2 million customers.

(Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Cars try to make their way through brackish water on State Road 24 about 5 miles north of Cedar Key on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. The traffic is headed to Cedar Key after Hurricane Helene hit the town Thursday.

(Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Although the plywood covering the doors and windows at First Baptist Church was blown off, the building survived Hurricane Helene in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. (Willie J. Allen Jr.

/Orlando Sentinel) Halle Brooks kayaks down a street flooded by Hurricane Helene in the Shore Acres neighborhood Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Fla.

(AP Photo/Mike Carlson) Longtime residents view their damaged home of more than 50 years after Hurricane Helene landed and devastated Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

(Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) People toss buckets of water out of a home as the streets and homes are flooded near Peachtree Creek after hurricane Helene brought in heavy rains over night on Sept.

27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Hurricane Helene made landfall late Thursday night as a category 4 hurricane in the pan handle of Florida and is working its way north, it is now considered a tropical storm. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images) Workers remove debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Cedar Key, Fla.

, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert) Members of law enforcement use a special vehicle in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Sept.

27, 2024 near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane Helene made landfall nearby last night as a Category four. (Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) Emergency vehicles to make their way through brackish water on State Road 24 about 5 miles north of Cedar Key on Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. The traffic is headed to Cedar Key after Hurricane Helene hit the town Thursday. (Stephen M.

Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) A boat rests on a street after being relocated during flooding caused by Hurricane Helene Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in Hudson, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson) Damage to a gas station on the outskirts of Perry, Fla.

, on Friday morning, Sept. 27, 2024. Helene thrashed florida as a powerful hurricane, producing dangerous storm surge along the coast and bringing heavy winds and rain acoss the southeastern United States as it moved inland as a tropical storm on Friday.

(Paul Ratje/The New York Times) City of Tallahassee utility workers remove tree limbs from downed power lined blocking residential street on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (Jeff Schweers/Orlando Sentinel) The residents of this home on Hanover West Drive in Atlanta told firefighters they wanted to shelter in place.

(John Spink/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS) Floodwaters at Steinhatchee Rivergate in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Sept. 27, 2024 near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane Helene made landfall nearby last night as a category four storm but has weakened as it moves inland.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) Members of the Ohio Task Force 1 urban search and rescue team rest after conducting high water rescues from flooding caused by Hurricane Helene Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in Hudson, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson) Edwin Sprague, 56, walks through the flood waters of Hurricane Helene to get to his home near SE Lincoln Circle N and First Ave.

N in St. Petersburg. He said he had never seen water so high near his home.

(Lauren Peace/Tampa Bay Times via TNS) Emergency responders share information in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Sept. 27, 2024 near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane Helene made landfall nearby last night as a category four storm but has weakened as it moves inland.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) Vehicles move slowly around trees that have fallen after of Hurricane Helene moved through the area, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) Vehicles move slowly around trees that have fallen after Hurricane Helene, Friday, Sept.

27, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) The destroyed Crabbie Dad’s restaurant could not withstand Hurricane Helene’s high winds and gulf surge in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. (Willie J. Allen Jr.

/Orlando Sentinel) Jamir Lewis wades through floodwaters with his two daughters, Nylah and Aria, in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024 in Crystal River, Fla. (Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via AP) Union Cathederal church is seen after of Hurricane Helene moved through the area on Friday, Sept.

27, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) Taylor County Middle School suffered damage from Hurricane Helene in Perry, Fla., Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. (Willie J. Allen Jr.

/Orlando Sentinel) A car is submerged in the floodwaters in the Buckhead neighborhood in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Sept. 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region as a category four hurricane, and has brought flooding inland as the storm system moves over Georgia, heading into the Carolinas.

(Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images) This home was carried into the middle of the street by the strong winds and gulf swells brought by Hurricane Helene in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

(Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) Flood waters inundate the main street after Hurricane Helene passed offshore on Sept.

27, 2024 in Tarpon Springs, Florida. Hurricane Helene made landfall Thursday night in Florida's Big Bend with winds up to 140 mph and storm surges. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) Charles Webb and his wife Dana Webb left their rental home to take refuge in the concrete main home minutes before this tree came crashing down during Hurricane Helene in Steinhatchee, Fla.

, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (Willie J.

Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) A damaged 100-year-old home is seen after an Oak tree landed on the home after Hurricane Helene moved through the area, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga.

(AP Photo/Mike Stewart) Roys restaurant was demolished during Hurricane Helene in Steinhatchee, Fla., Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

(Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel) Ronda Bell looks on after an Oak tree landed on her 100-year-old home after Hurricane Helene moved through, Friday, Sept.

27, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart) Destroyed homes in the small community of Dekle Beach that was devastated by Hurricane Helene near Keaton Beach, Fla., on Friday, Sept.

27, 2024. Helene thrashed Florida as a powerful hurricane, producing dangerous storm surge along the coast and bringing heavy winds and rain across the southeastern United States as it moved inland as a tropical storm on Friday. (Paul Ratje/The New York Times) An increasingly warmer atmosphere traps more moisture, making hurricanes rainier.

That can lead to extensive inland flooding. Keelings has documented an alarming trend over the last 50 years: Rainfall flooding from tropical cyclones is killing more people than wind and storm surge. In the past decade, rainfall flooding caused nearly 60% of all U.

S. hurricane deaths, scientists with the National Hurricane Center similarly found. Predicted surge levels serve as the basis for evacuation orders.

But inland flash flooding can catch people off-guard, inundating areas that don’t normally flood. Recent storms provide tragic examples. Hurricane Helene killed 198 people across the Carolinas and Georgia, largely from rainfall flooding.

Twenty people died in Florida, where surge crashed up and down the Gulf Coast as the storm made landfall in the Big Bend. A wetter atmosphere also means rainfall is expected to continue to increase overall in Florida, not just during hurricanes, Keelings said. He looked at the frequency of extreme rain events from 1950 through 2016 and found that Florida experienced an increase of about 25 more each year.

Soils that become more saturated by the end of these extreme rainy seasons could ripen conditions for dangerous flooding. Milton’s hurricane-force winds ripped trees from already soggy soils, but its historic rain also flooded neighborhoods that had never experienced waters so high. About 17 inches of rain drenched parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties in just five hours, submerging inland neighborhoods.

In Clearwater, residents were pulled from an apartment complex under 6 feet of water. Milton’s heavy rains caused stormwater pumps to fail in some North Tampa neighborhoods, where lakes overflowed and crept inside homes. The rain reached 1-in-1,000-year levels.

Masters, the former NOAA scientist, said expectations about how climate change will shape future hurricane seasons can be boiled down to a simple concept: “The extremes will get more extreme.” Waters are getting hotter. Storms are getting wetter.

Combined, experts say, that means hurricanes could continue to feel more routine — and also more formidable..