2 days Ago By Joel Reuter
The Kansas City Royals have been baseball's biggest surprise in 2024, putting an ugly 56-106 season in the rearview to emerge as playoff contenders, but they are not the only team that has exceeded expectations. On the flip side, more than a few clubs have fallen well short of preseason predictions, including an Atlanta Braves squad that has gone from one of the World Series favorites to battling for the third NL wild-card spot. Ahead is a look back at each team's preseason win total predictions, courtesy of the PECOTA projection system from Baseball Prospectus, and a breakdown of the five biggest winners and five biggest losers relative to those projections.
Teams are ranked based on their win total differential relative to preseason predictions. PECOTA Win Predictions LAD: 101 ATL: 100 HOU: 95 NYY: 94 MIN: 88 TOR: 88 BAL: 87 TB: 86 TEX: 86 ARI: 85 SEA: 85 STL: 85 PHI: 84 CLE: 83 NYM: 83 SF: 81 BOS: 80 CHC: 80 MIA: 80 MIL: 79 SD: 79 CIN: 78 DET: 75 LAA: 75 PIT: 73 KC: 70 CWS: 66 OAK: 65 COL: 58 WAS: 58 Preseason Win Projection: 75 Current Win Projection: 66 Differential: -9 Why They Were Overrated With a healthy Mike Trout, a promising young offensive core that included Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel, a rebuilt bullpen and an underrated starting rotation, it was not hard to look at the Angels as a team that could potentially surprise heading into the 2024 season. What Went Wrong Trout has played just 29 games, and while some of those young guys have shown promise, the offense as a whole has been one of the worst in baseball.
They rank 27th in runs scored, 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS, and the pitching staff has simply not been good enough to shoulder the load. Preseason Win Projection: 79 Current Win Projection: 92 Differential: + 13 Why They Were Underrated The Padres lost 22.0 WAR from their 2023 team when Juan Soto and Trent Grisham were traded to the New York Yankees and Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez all departed in free agency.
Even with all of those players, they only won 82 games in 2023. What Went Right The emergence of Jackson Merrill and a career year from Jurickson Profar has gone a long way in offsetting the offensive production they lost, while Michael King has enjoyed a breakout season in the starting rotation and the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. After underperforming relative to their on-paper talent in recent years, they are playing up to their full potential.
Preseason Win Projection: 88 Current Win Projection: 78 Differential: -10 Why They Were Overrated The Blue Jays returned essentially the same team that won 89 games and claimed a wild-card berth in 2023, with third baseman Matt Chapman the only true impact player gone from last year's team. With a rock-solid starting rotation and plenty of quality offensive pieces, they looked like a safe bet to at least hang around in the wild-card picture. What Went Wrong The Blue Jays have never been more than three games above .
500, and they have not recorded a winning streak longer than five games. They have simply never found any sustainable momentum. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
is having a terrific season, but he is the only player on the roster with at least 400 plate appearances and a 100 OPS+ or better. They did a nice job cutting their losses at the trade deadline without committing to a full-scale rebuild. Preseason Win Projection: 84 Current Win Projection: 97 Differential: + 13 Why They Were Underrated Here's what I had to say about the Phillies in my Opening Day power rankings, when I had them penciled into the No.
3 spot: "The Phillies have one of the most complete rosters in baseball top-to-bottom, and that was the case from the moment they re-signed Aaron Nola at the beginning of the offseason." Playing in the same division as the Atlanta Braves and some questions about how all the pieces would fit together in the bullpen were among the red flags heading into the year, but this group has looked underrated from the moment their win projection was released. What Went Right The Phillies have indeed been one of baseball's most complete rosters, ranking among the MLB leaders in runs scored (725, sixth), OPS (.
751, fourth), home runs (180, ninth), team ERA (3.74, seventh) and starters' ERA (3.68, fifth).
On top of all their established star power, Alec Bohm and Cristopher Sanchez have also enjoyed breakthrough seasons, while Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm were both All-Stars out of the bullpen. Preseason Win Projection: 100 Current Win Projection: 89 Differential: -11 Why They Were Overrated Working on a run of six straight NL East titles and fresh off back-to-back 100-win campaigns, it's not hard to see why the Braves were one of the favorites to win it all. They had an all-time great offense in 2023 and returned all of the core pieces from that group, led by NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr.
and prolific slugger Matt Olson. Adding Chris Sale and Reynaldo López also gave the starting rotation a more complete look. What Went Wrong Losing Acuña and ace Spencer Strider to season-ending injuries was a major blow, while Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have also failed to live up to expectations due to injuries and inconsistency.
It looks like their battle for a playoff spot is going to come down to the season's final days, which is not the outcome anyone expected for this club. Preseason Win Projection: 79 Current Win Projection: 92 Differential: + 13 Why They Were Underrated It was difficult not to view the Brewers' decision to trade Corbin Burnes to the Orioles as admitting that 2024 was going to be a retooling season of sorts, and entering the year the starting rotation was one huge question mark behind Freddy Peralta. Even with the addition of slugger Rhys Hoskins, the offense also still looked like a middle-of-the-pack group at best on paper.
What Went Right Tobias Myers and Colin Rea have quietly stepped up as reliable options in the starting rotation, but it's the Brewers offense that has been the biggest surprise. They have gone from 17th (4.49) to fifth (4.
87) in runs per game, with rookie Jackson Chourio providing an instant impact and shortstop Willy Adames putting up the best numbers of his career in a contract year. A retooled bullpen has also been better than expected, with Trevor Megill doing a fantastic job holding down the fort in the ninth inning while Devin Williams was sidelined. Preseason Win Projection: 80 Current Win Projection: 60 Differential: -20 Why They Were Overrated The Marlins were a playoff team in 2023.
No, seriously, look it up. Sandwiched between a pair of 90-loss seasons, they snuck into the postseason as the third NL wild card with an 84-win campaign. They didn't do much to upgrade the roster, but it wasn't hard to get behind the idea of full seasons from Jake Burger and Josh Bell bolstering the offense just enough to back a solid pitching staff.
What Went Wrong From the bizarre decision to void a 2025 option on manager Skip Schumaker just a few days into the season to an 0-9 start to the early white flag that was trading Luis Arraez to San Diego on May 4, it's been a rough season for the Marlins. It hasn't helped that the starting rotation that was supposed to be their strength has been decimated by injuries, with 19 different pitchers starting at least one game. They blew it up at the deadline and will be in full rebuild mode for the foreseeable future.
Preseason Win Projection: 58 Current Win Projection: 73 Differential: + 15 Why They Were Underrated With 295 losses in the three years leading up to the 2024 season, the Nationals had made little progress in their rebuilding efforts, and a deep, talented farm system appeared to be at least a year or two from making any major impact at the big league level. They again spent the offseason shopping in the bargain bin, and entered the year with a questionable starting rotation and a lineup lacking in proven run producers. What Went Right The young middle infield tandem of CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr.
has produced a combined 5.3 WAR, top prospect James Wood has made an immediate impact and unheralded rookie Jacob Young has emerged as a Gold Glove contender in center field. On the pitching side, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have chewed up innings at a league-average rate, while DJ Herz has flashed promising upside.
They still have a long way to go, but there are some legitimate pieces to build around. Preseason Win Projection: 66 Current Win Projection: 40 Differential: -26 Why They Were Overrated Is it even possible to overrate a team while predicting they will lose 96 games? There was some mild optimism that buying low on the trio of Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Mike Soroka might give the White Sox a better-than-expected rotation, and middle-of-the-order trio of Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn has long teased impact potential, but nothing was expected of this team and they have still fallen short of expectations.
What Went Wrong Just about everything. The White Sox are on track to lose more games than any team in modern MLB history, and the bright spots have been dim at best. They have little to show for the breakout performance of Erick Fedde if former top prospect Miguel Vargas doesn't figure it out.
Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet talked his way out of being a trade chip with his extension demands, and they failed to find a trade partner for Luis Robert Jr. in a market that was thin on impact bats. They might spend the next decade trying to dig out of this hole.
Preseason Win Projection: 70 Current Win Projection: 88 Differential: + 18 Why They Were Underrated Honestly, that 70-win projection was dripping with optimism considering the Royals tied a franchise record with 106 losses in 2023. The offseason additions of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier may not have dominated the headlines, but it was enough to believe there could be some marked improvement. Still, who could have reasonably expected an improvement of 30-plus wins? What Went Right Almost everything.
Bobby Witt Jr. has gone from a promising young player on the rise to a bona fide superstar and MVP candidate. The addition of Lugo and continued development of Cole Ragans have given the Royals arguably the best one-two punch in all of baseball, and the starting rotation as a whole ranks second in the majors with a 3.
54 ERA. The front office continued making successful moves by trading for Lucas Erceg at the deadline and claiming Tommy Pham off waivers. Now they just need to finish strong for their first postseason berth since they won it all in 2015.
Win Total Differential Rankings KC +18 WAS +15 MIL +13 PHI +13 SD +13 CLE +9 DET +8 ARI +5 NYM +5 OAK +5 CHC +4 PIT +4 BAL +3 COL +3 BOS +1 CIN 0 NYY 0 MIN -2 SEA -2 SF -4 STL -4 LAD -5 HOU -6 TB -7 TEX -8 LAA -9 TOR -10 ATL -11 MIA -20 CWS -26.
