MLB Free Agency 2024-25: Contract and Landing Spot Predictions for Top 25 Players

Welcome to Bleacher Report's 2024-25 MLB free agent rankings, a list that breaks down the top 25 available players and projects both a destination and contract for each individual. Here are a few things to keep in mind with this countdown. 1.

The most important thing here is the contract projections, because those should be relatively similar regardless of what team each free agent signs with. 2. While the team projections aren't just a shot in the dark, there is kind of a domino effect.



If Blake Snell signs with one team, that likely means Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will end up elsewhere. 3. Not all 30 teams are projected to land one of these free agents, but they could sign a free agent outside the top 25 and/or use the trade market to bolster their roster.

With all that acknowledged, here are the B/R top 25 free agents with contract and landing spot predictions. Roki Sasaki will be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines, immediately making the 23-year-old one of the top overall free agents available in this cycle. He is 29-15 with a 2.

10 ERA across four seasons in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. However, Sasaki is limited in his earning potential because as MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan noted , the talented righty is under 25 years old and hasn't played professionally for at least six seasons.

That means he's "subject to international bonus pool money restrictions." This was the same case when Shohei Ohtani originally came to MLB, joining the Los Angeles Angels for his age-23 campaign. The Halos signed Ohtani for $2.

315 million in international bonus pool money, gaining six years of team control before he could test free agency. They also paid a $20 million posting fee to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, the Japanese team that posted Ohtani. So, for Sasaki, this will come down to where he feels most comfortable pitching at more than anything else.

Some teams have more international bonus pool money than others, but the overall difference won't be huge. No one can come in and offer him a 10-year deal that makes him baseball's highest-paid pitcher. There's not really a contract to project for the 23-year-old, but given the foothold the Dodgers now have in the Japanese market by employing both Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they are going to be considered the favorite for all players posted from Japan for the foreseeable future.

2024 Stats: 54 G, 2.45 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 26-for-31 SV, 1.

2 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Two years, $23 million Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs Carlos Estévez was an All-Star in 2023, but he put together his best overall season in 2024, a campaign split between the Angels and Phillies. Across 54 games this past year, the 31-year-old posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.

96 BB/9 , a drastic improvement from his 3.46 career mark in that category. Still, there were some warning signs with Estévez down the stretch with the Phillies.

He gave up at least one hit in five out of his last six appearances. In three of those games, he allowed multiple hits. It often feels like he's overly reliant on you just not being able to catch up to his fastball, which sits around 97 mph.

The problem is, on the biggest stages, great hitters can catch up to fastballs that are flat, even if they're thrown hard. That's what happened in the NLDS, as he gave up a grand slam to Francisco Lindor on a 99 mph fastball that was up in the zone, a pitch that essentially ended the season for the Phillies. Estévez is a capable bullpen arm.

Someone will sign him to either be their closer or top setup man. But he's not quite at the same level as some of the other relievers available in free agency. 2024 Stats: 50 G, 1.

93 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.0 WAR Age in 2025: 37 Contract Prediction: One year, $10 million Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Blake Treinen will turn 37 during the 2025 season, so he may be limited to a one-year deal.

However, he posted a 2.19 ERA across nine appearances during the World Series run for the Dodgers. That came after he finished with a minuscule 1.

93 ERA across 50 regular-season appearances, making his return after missing a bulk of the two prior seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. His 2024 campaign felt like the return of one of the nastiest relievers in the sport. He doesn't throw as hard as he once did, but his four-pitch mix—sweeper, four-seam fastball, cutter and sinker—gives him more than enough deception to still be a top reliever.

Whether it's as a closer or setup man, Treinen will be in demand this offseason from teams with World Series aspirations. 2024 Stats: 67 G, 3.14 ERA, 3.

02 FIP, 30-for-43 SV, 1.2 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Two years, $24 million Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles Clay Holmes was an All-Star for the second time in three years this past campaign for the New York Yankees, posting a 2.77 ERA in 40 games during the first half of the season.

However, the 31-year-old lost the closer's job late in the 2024 season, posting a 3.75 ERA in 27 games following the All-Star break. To his credit, Holmes rebounded and was largely effective in the postseason, finishing with a 2.

25 ERA across 13 playoff appearances. However, the control problems that plagued him down the stretch of the regular season are hard to put out of your mind, and likely mean A) he won't be back with the Yankees and B) he's not going to make as much money as it once appeared he would. Still, there will be plenty of contenders interested in Holmes, likely enough that he'll be able to get a multi-year deal if that's what he wants.

He would be a nice addition to the Orioles as a setup man for closer Félix Bautista, who will return after missing the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. 2024 Stats: .257/.

330/.378, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 65 BB, .709 OPS, 1.

7 WAR Age in 2025: 28 Contract Prediction: One year, $15 million Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners Gleyber Torres is coming off of the worst offensive season of his career, as he hit .257 with just a .709 OPS.

Since homering 38 times in 2019 at the age of 22, he has never topped 25 home runs in a season. He hit just 15 across 587 at-bats in 2024. With that said, he will only be 28 when he celebrates his birthday in December.

He also hit well at the top of Aaron Boone's order as the Yankees defeated the Royals and Guardians en route to an AL pennant. There are going to be teams intrigued by him as a change-of-scenery candidate. Whether it was early in his career at shortstop or more recently at second base, the two-time All-Star has never graded out well defensively.

But a team with an opening at second base—and perhaps some at-bats available at DH—will take a chance on him if they think his best years are still ahead of him offensively. Torres may only sign for one year, but if he has a rebound season, whatever team signs him this offseason could extend him a qualifying offer next winter. 2024 Stats: .

275/.393/.515, 23 HR, 64 RBI, 55 BB, .

908 OPS, 3.0 WAR Age in 2025: 33 Contract Prediction: Two years, $28 million Team Prediction: Kansas City Royals Joc Pederson had arguably the best season of his career with the Diamondbacks in 2024, hitting 23 home runs, drawing 55 walks and posting a .908 OPS across 447 plate appearances.

He also led the NL in hit-by-pitches at 18. He didn't play at all in the outfield for the D-backs, and he may just be a DH at this stage of his career. With that said, he posted a .

923 OPS against right-handed pitching this past season, so teams looking to add left-handed thump will be happy to accommodate him. There's also a reality that he has a history of turning up on World Series winners, having won titles with the Dodgers and Braves previously. He'll be especially attractive to teams who want to add someone with extensive postseason experience.

2024 Stats: .280/.380/.

459, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 76 BB, .839 OPS, 4.3 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Two years, $34 million with $17 million club option available for 2027 Team Prediction: San Diego Padres Jurickson Profar is one of the most difficult free agents to figure out in this cycle, because he was among the best players in baseball this past season.

With that said, he's just a year removed from posting a minus-1.6 WAR and getting released late in the season by the Rockies. There's going to be some skepticism that his All-Star campaign will be something of an outlier, even if he's much better than he showed in 2023.

Profar came up as an infielder with the Rangers, but he is a left fielder at this stage. However, he posted minus-8 defensive runs saved and minus-6 outs above average in left field this past season, so he's far from competing for a Gold Glove. But he was a legitimately excellent offensively player this past season, and he had success hitting all over the lineup for San Diego.

If teams determine that what he tapped into this past year is sustainable, he'll have suitors lined up for his services. 2024 Stats: .241/.

336/.511, 31 HR, 61 RBI, 53 BB, .847 OPS, 2.

5 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Two years, $28 million with player opt-out available after 2025 Team Prediction: Minnesota Twins Tyler O'Neill is so frustrating because he's an All-Star level player when he's on the field. But this past season with the Red Sox he had three injured-list stints. What's crazy is that despite that, the 113 games he played were his most since 2021, when he looked like one of the game's emerging superstars with the Cardinals.

O'Neill's health history will limit his earning potential in free agency, but it's hard to argue with the production he puts up when he's on the field. Hitting 31 home runs is pretty remarkable when you miss nearly 50 games. His defensive metrics weren't great this past year, but that's at least in part because he was trying to navigate the Green Monster at Fenway Park.

He won consecutive Gold Gloves with the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021. He'll likely seek a multi-year deal, though it's hard to imagine committing too long given the injury risk. A two-year contract that allows him to get back to the market next offseason if he has a big 2025 probably makes sense for all parties.

O'Neill will also be a qualifying-offer candidate next offseason if he is able to stay healthy. 2024 Stats: .233/.

330/.370, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 58 BB, .700 OPS, 2.

6 WAR Age in 2025: 29 Contract Prediction: One year, $14 million Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers If Ha-Seong Kim had become a free agent last offseason, he would have been one of the most coveted names on the market. He homered 17 times, drove in 68 runs, walked 75 times, stole 38 bases and won a Gold Glove for the Padres during the 2023 season. Unfortunately for Kim, his OPS dipped from .

749 in 2023 to .700 in 2024. Even more of a concern is that he had season-ending surgery on the labrum in his right shoulder in late-September, which could affect his availability early in the 2025 season.

Still, Kim has proved to be an excellent defender at shortstop, second base and third base. He's going to work walks and can steal bases. Someone, probably a team that can afford to be patient in April, is going to get very lucky in signing him to a pillow contract.

Next winter, it might be a slam dunk to give him a qualifying offer. As much as it would burn for fans in San Diego, the Dodgers love players with positional flexibility and have a need in their middle infield. Kim would be a perfect fit.

If not the Dodgers, the Giants—another NL West rival of the Padres—have also been connected to Kim already. 2024 Stats: 68 G, 2.17 ERA, 2.

52 FIP, 10-for-13 SV, 2.0 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Three years, $39 million Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies With the addition of a wipeout slider, Hoffman—the No. 9 pick in the 2014 MLB draft—has gone from bust to one of the best relievers in baseball over the last two seasons.

Since the start of the 2023 season, he has posted a 2.28 ERA across 122 games out of the bullpen for the Phillies. FanGraphs says that the 3.

6 WAR he has accumulated is fifth among all relievers. He did struggle mightily in the Phillies' NLDS loss to the division-rival Mets, but he was an All-Star for the first time in 2024. He's proved capable of pitching in the ninth inning, but he isn't necessarily someone who would have to be your closer if you signed him.

Hoffman did repeatedly say he hopes to remain with the Phillies. All bets are off once you reach free agency, but you sensed after the NLDS loss that he feels like he has unfinished business in Philadelphia. The Phillies will be hard-pressed to find a better replacement.

The one wrench that could make the Phillies much less likely to bring Hoffman back is ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reported last week that there are some teams who believe the righty could pitch well out of the starting rotation. After the success Reynaldo López had returning to starting pitching for the Braves after an extended run as a reliever, such a transition can't be ruled out with Hoffman. 2024 Stats: 12-8, 3.

80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 166 K, 2.7 WAR, 170.

2 IP Age in 2025: 35 Contract Prediction: Two years, $39 million Team Prediction: Washington Nationals If you're a team looking to add a veteran with postseason experience who's still pitching at a high level, Nathan Eovaldi should be near the top of your list. He posted a 3.72 ERA across 54 starts for the Rangers over the past two seasons.

His health history means he isn't someone you should count on to take the ball 33 times a year, particularly as he ages. But he's very effective when on the mound. Additionally, he is a two-time World Series champion, having won titles with the Red Sox (2018) and Rangers (2023).

He's got a 3.05 ERA across 79.2 career postseason innings, having thrived both as a starter and reliever in October.

The Nationals are a team with a ton of young talent that would benefit from the addition of Eovaldi's presence in the clubhouse, let alone Dave Martinez's starting rotation. 2024 Stats: 9-10, 4.05 ERA, 3.

46 FIP, 206 strikeouts, 3.5 WAR, 175.2 IP Age in 2025: 34 Contract Prediction: Three years, $51 million Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels There will be some teams who have Yusei Kikuchi in their top 10, and others who don't have him in the top 20.

So this ranking, which splits the difference, probably won't please anyone. Kikuchi posted a 4.75 ERA in 22 starts with the Blue Jays this past season, but he was excellent across 10 starts with the Astros, as evidenced by his 2.

70 ERA. His 4.05 ERA over 175.

2 total innings this past year is fine, though his 3.75 expected ERA and 3.46 FIP paint a much better picture of the lefty.

Still, this is a pitcher with a 4.57 career ERA, one who is probably a few years older than you think. He's not going to be everyone's cup of tea, but he should get a multi-year deal as teams are desperate for quality starting pitching.

And Kikuchi fits that bill down the stretch. 2024 Stats: 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 4.

21 FIP, 161 K, 2.1 WAR , 182 IP Age in 2025: 31 Contract Prediction: Two years, $38.5 million with opt-out available after 2025 Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers Luis Severino was healthy for the first time in half a decade this past season, and he reemerged as an excellent starter.

He posted a 3.91 ERA across 182 innings for the Mets, making the one-year, $13 million deal that they signed him to last December look like a bargain. Still, it's difficult to evaluate Severino as a free agent.

He's shown the ability to pitch at a high level in the biggest market in the sport, but prior to logging 182 innings this past season, he pitched just 209.1 total innings between 2019 and 2023. Further complicating things is that Severino was given a one-year, $21.

05 million qualifying offer by the Mets. Assuming he declines that, any team that signs him other than the Mets would have to give up draft-pick compensation. Severino is the type of pitcher you would like to see stay healthy another year before making a multi-year commitment.

But if you sign him for just a year—or to a deal that has an option for him to get back to the open market next winter—you could be left empty-handed next offseason if he's able to replicate his 2024 season. There's a lot to like about Severino, but he's not for the risk averse. 2024 Stats: .

251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 55 BB, .

803 OPS, 3.0 WAR Age in 2025: 34 Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million Team Prediction: Washington Nationals Christian Walker is going to offer an interesting alternative to Pete Alonso for teams looking to add an impact first baseman this offseason. An oblique injury cost Walker a little more than a month this past season, but he still homered 26 times, drove in 84 runs and posted an .

803 OPS. He also won his third consecutive Gold Glove at the position, posting seven defensive runs saved and 13 outs above average in more than 1,100 frames at first base for the Diamondbacks. Walker will turn 34 next March, which is going to limit the amount of years he gets on the open market.

A first base-needy team like the Astros might be particularly hesitant to give a mid-30s Walker a lucrative contract given the disaster that the José Abreu deal—which still has $19.5 million remaining in 2025 —turned out to be. But Walker has been one of the best overall first basemen in baseball over the last three seasons.

For a team looking to add thump, strong defense and a veteran clubhouse presence, he makes quite a bit of sense. 2024 Stats: 72 G, 2.73 ERA, 2.

33 FIP, 22-for-24 SV, 1.6 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Three years, $48 million Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox Tanner Scott might not have as deep of a pitch arsenal as some of the other relievers on this list, but it's hard to argue with the results that he's had over the past two seasons with his fastball/slider combination. In 146 games over the past two seasons, he has posted a 2.

04 ERA and 2.53 FIP. According to FanGraphs , his 4.

5 WAR is the top mark among relief pitchers since the start of the 2023 season, topping the likes of Emmanuel Clase and Ryan Helsley. One of the biggest keys in his 2023 breakout was trimming his BB/9 to 2.77.

That spiked back up to 4.50 in 2024, which is concerning. Still, Scott was an All-Star selection and finished with a 1.

75 ERA in a season he split between the Marlins and Padres. Scott has experience as a setup man or closer. He's likely to command a large enough contract in free agency that serious suitors will view him as their best reliever, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be pitching in the ninth inning in today's game.

2024 Stats: 12-6, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 184 K, 2.

8 WAR , 181.2 IP Age in 2025: 33 Contract Prediction: Three years, $55 million with opt-out available after 2026 Team Prediction: Texas Rangers Like Severino, the Mets gave Sean Manaea a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer after he revitalized his career in Flushing this past season.

He's more of a sure bet to reject that qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal, even if he's not going to top that amount of money in 2025. The story of the finest season of Manaea's career is a pretty crazy one. He lowered his release point after studying likely NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale pitch against the Mets in late July, and with some other tweaks put together a tremendous campaign after posting a 4.

73 ERA between 2022 and 2023: A variety of teams, including the incumbent Mets, will be interested in Manaea. He should be able to land a three-year deal that allows him to get back to the open market after 2026 if he's outperforming the pact at that point. 2024 Stats: 13-7, 3.

17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 194 K, 3.2 WAR , 162 IP Age in 2025: 29 Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million with opt-out available after 2026 Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves Jack Flaherty looked poised to be one of this decade's top starting pitchers when in 2019, at the age of 23, he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 0.

91 ERA in 15 second half starts for the Cardinals. But he struggled with health and effectiveness between 2020 and 2023, posting a 4.42 ERA and logging 299 innings across parts of four seasons.

Still, the Tigers took a risk by signing him to a one-year, $14 million deal last offseason—despite him having posted a 6.75 ERA after being traded midseason to the Orioles in 2023—and were rewarded. In a season he would ultimately split between the Tigers and Dodgers, Flaherty went 13-7 with a 3.

17 ERA and nearly 200 strikeouts across 162 innings. He was very much a mixed bag in the postseason, with a disastrous start against the Mets in NLDS Game 5 inflating his ERA across five playoff starts to 7.36.

Nonetheless, he helped the Dodgers—his favorite team as a kid—to win the World Series. There will be a lot to consider with Flaherty as a free agent. Not only has he struggled to stay healthy consistently in his career, but prior to being traded to the Dodgers, a deal that would have sent him to the Yankees fell through over concerns about a back injury .

There will be some teams who view him as too risky of an investment. With that said, he wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer after his midseason trade, so any team that signs him wouldn't have to give up draft compensation, as they would to sign Severino, Manaea or most of the starters still to come on this list. Because Flaherty hasn't ever received a qualifying offer in his career, any team that signs him this winter and includes an opt-out clause in his deal would know they still could extend one to him down the road.

There's the potential for signing Flaherty to blow up, but the ceiling is high enough that there will be plenty of teams willing to take that risk. 2024 Stats: .272/.

339/.501, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 53 BB, .840 OPS, 3.

5 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Three years, $54 million Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers Speaking of players who just won World Series titles with the Dodgers, Teoscar Hernández signed a one-year, $23.5 million pillow contract to join Los Angeles after a relatively underwhelming contract year with the Seattle Mariners. It turned out to be a great arrangement for all parties.

In his second consecutive contract year, he benefitted greatly from hitting in a star-studded lineup, homering 33 times, driving in 99 runs and posting an .840 OPS. There's also a joy that he plays the game with that's contagious and makes him particularly valuable to teams with World Series-caliber rosters.

The Dodgers did extend a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer to Hernández, but he'll surely decline that in search of a multi-year contract as he enters his age-32 season. MLB Network's Jon Morosi recently reported that the Red Sox and Orioles have interest in the slugger, who can play corner outfield or DH.

However, Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports pointed out there's "mutual interest" between the Dodgers and Hernández in reaching a new deal. Given the Dodgers are the only team that wouldn't have to give up draft-pick compensation to sign Hernández and that Los Angeles has uncertainty in its outfield with Mookie Betts moving back to the infield , staying put still seems like the most likely outcome. 2024 Stats: .

235/.308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 58 BB, .

814 OPS, 3.3 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Five years, $101 million Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers Anthony Santander is a switch-hitting slugger who put together a career year in his contract season, clubbing 44 home runs and driving in over 100 runs for the first time. He's also traditionally played passable right field defense and is a big enough bat that you could justify giving him regular DH at-bats in the second half of a contract if he falls off a cliff defensively.

It is fair to point out there's not a ton of margin for decline with Santander. If he's hitting 30 home runs, 30 doubles and driving in 90 runs a year, there's quite a bit of value. But he's a career .

246 hitter, and while he doesn't strike out as much as most power hitters, he also has never walked more than 60 times in a campaign. A good free-agent comp for Santander would be Nick Castellanos. After a career year with the Reds in 2021, Castellanos became a free agent, and had a qualifying offer attached to him, like Santander does.

He ultimately received a five-year, $100 million deal from the Phillies. That's the type of range Santander is probably looking at. 2024 Stats: .

260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 44 BB, .

768 OPS, 4.1 WAR Age in 2025: 31 Contract Prediction: Five years, $130 million with $26 million club option for 2030 Team Prediction: Houston Astros Alex Bregman once looked destined to be a $300 million-plus player in free agency. Between 2018 and 2019, he hit 72 home runs with a .

970 OPS and 16.2 WAR, which FanGraphs says was second only to Mike Trout among all position players over that period. In the five seasons since then, Bregman has 92 home runs, a .

795 OPS and 25.8 WAR , which is tied for ninth in baseball. It's still All-Star-level production, but it's not the Hall of Fame-caliber output he produced earlier in his career.

This past season, Bregman hit 26 home runs, drove in 75 runs and posted a .768 OPS. He walked just 44 times, a year after drawing 92 bases on balls.

But he also won his first career Gold Glove Award, posting six defensive runs saved and six outs above average at third base. For as long as Bregman has been around, he's still only entering his age-31 season and is one of the most accomplished postseason hitters ever. His 19 postseason home runs are sixth in MLB history , and third among active players, trailing only Jose Altuve (27) and Kyle Schwarber (21).

Bregman is willing to play second base in the right scenario, according to Boras. There's going to be interest from contending teams , whether they envision him playing third base, second base or some combination. But it's just difficult to imagine him in another uniform, particularly given what Astros' general manager Dana Brown said about the franchise icon late in the season.

"I think it'll work out," he said . "When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here.

And it's just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement." 2024 Stats: .251/.

331/.462, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 74 BB, .794 OPS, 4.

8 WAR Age in 2025: 29 Contract Prediction: Seven years, $180 million Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants Willy Adames is reaching free agency at an interesting juncture of his career. He is coming off of the best offensive season of his career, as he homered 32 times and drove in 112 runs for the Brewers. That makes him an elite run producer at any position, let alone shortstop.

However, Adames' defensive metrics fell off a cliff this past season, as he posted minus-16 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average. That's hard to square because he finished 2023 with eight DRS and 16 OAA. Was there that dramatic of a drop-off in one year? He has signaled a willingness to move off shortstop if need be.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo reported in The Athletic this past week that Adames "wants to stay at shortstop but would be willing to play a different position if he gets a strong offer from a team in position to win." The guess here is Adames will be a shortstop in 2025, although it's good to know if you are going to sign him to a long-term deal that he would be realistic about not necessarily spending that whole pact at his natural position. Dansby Swanson is an interesting comp here.

Prior to the year, Adames looked to be a better version of Swanson since he both graded out well defensively and had elite pop for the position. Well, his defensive metrics now probably work against him, though there may be some teams who think they can get him back on track. And his bat protects your investment, even if things don't work out with him defensively at shortstop.

Buster Posey—the new president of baseball operations in San Francisco— said at the GM meetings in San Antonio last week that he wants to figure out the shortstop position. Adames could sign to be the shortstop in San Francisco, while also adding much-needed thump to manager Bob Melvin's lineup. A bit of hazard pay to hit 81 games a year in San Francisco should allow Adames to top the seven-year, $177 million deal Swanson signed with the Cubs prior to the 2023 season, even if only by a little.

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.

459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 70 BB, .788 OPS, 2.1 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million Team Prediction: New York Mets Pete Alonso may be a bit higher on this list than some others.

That's fine. There is always some level of risk in paying slugging first basemen, but he just homered 34 times and drove in 88 runs in what was considered a down season. If that's the baseline, this isn't someone teams in need of thump should have an issue paying.

Run production might not be valued quite as much as it once was, but since the start of the 2021 season, Alonso is fourth in home runs (157) and third in RBI (431). If you're a team that's capable of getting ducks on the pond in front of him, you're going to win a lot of games by virtue of him delivering extra-base hits. Freddie Freeman landed a six-year, $162 million deal from the Dodgers after the 2021 season.

Freeman was two years older than Alonso, but he is also just a better player, as he's a future Hall of Famer. But even he had to settle for some deferrals, as $57 million of Freeman's contract is going to be paid out between 2028 and 2040. Alonso may not be able to get the six years Freeman did, but if he can get the $27 million average annual value Freeman's deal has without any deferrals, that would be moving the market forward.

After Alonso homered four times and drove in 10 runs to help the Mets make a surprising run to the NLCS, it's hard to imagine him switching teams. However, if the Mets sign Juan Soto and Alonso has to look elsewhere, the Nationals, Yankees, Astros, Mariners and Giants all make sense as possible landing spots. 2024 Stats: 11-10, 3.

25 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 166 K, 3.4 WAR , 174.

1 IP Age in 2025: 31 Contract Prediction: Six years, $168 million Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles Max Fried may be more likely to make 28 starts a year than 33, but since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014, he's avoided any catastrophic injuries. And in the process, he's become one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since the start of the 2020 season, he is 54-25 with a 2.

81 ERA and 3.11 FIP. Over that period, he's posted two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting, including runner-up to Sandy Alcántara in 2022.

Fried is also a three-time Gold Glove Award winner. If you're looking for a recent free agent to compare him to, Carlos Rodón would probably be a good player to start with. Fried maybe hasn't been quite as dominant as Rodón was in his two seasons prior to free agency, but while there may be some durability questions with Fried, they're nothing compared to those that followed Rodón, who still landed a six-year, $162 million deal from the Yankees prior to the 2023 season.

Two years later, Fried should be able to improve upon the $27 million average annual value Rodón got. Perhaps he'll have to settle for only five years to get that, although it's not what we're projecting. 2024 Stats: 5-3, 3.

12 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 145 K, 3.1 WAR , 104 IP Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Five years, $158 million Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox So much has been made about the shortcomings of Blake Snell.

Yes, he's not a workhorse. He's more likely to go five or six innings when he takes the ball than seven or eight innings. That's something to consider as you determine whether he is worth a major investment.

With that said, this is one of seven players in MLB history to win a Cy Young Award in both leagues. He rebounded from a difficult first half this past season with the Giants to perform like one of the best pitchers in baseball after the All-Star break, posting a 1.45 ERA across 12 starts in the second half of the season.

And unlike last year, there's no qualifying offer attached to Snell, so any team that signs him wouldn't have to give up draft compensation. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic cast doubt on the possibility of Snell returning to the Giants next season, which means he'll be searching for his third team in as many seasons. Still represented by Boras, he should have better luck this offseason than last, given the QO isn't weighing him down this time around.

Tyler Glasnow is currently slated to have the fourth-highest average annual value of players who are only pitchers next year at $27.3 million. Gerrit Cole, at least for now, is at $36 million .

Somewhere in between those two figures—we settled on just above $31.5 million—over half a decade would be a nice deal for Snell. 2024 Stats: 15-9, 2.

92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 181 K, 3.7 WAR , 194.

1 IP Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Seven years, $224 million Team Prediction: New York Mets Much has been made of the fact that Corbin Burnes "only" struck out 181 batters this past season with the Orioles, two years after the righty fanned 243 hitters while pitching for the Brewers. That's something to consider, but Burnes' floor is still very high, as is his ceiling. After being traded to the Orioles during spring training, he went 15-9 with a 2.

92 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 194.1 innings pitched.

That's ace-level production, and when you're considering making an investment into a pitcher's 30s, there's actually some comfort in knowing he can pitch without striking as many batters out. In fact, while Burnes' numbers of strikeouts dipped from 2022, the rate of balls hit hard against him in 2024 (28.9 percent) was actually down from 31.

6 percent in 2022. It's right in line with the 29 percent he posted in 2023. He hasn't had any major injuries during his career, and he only just turned 30.

Given he has logged 190 or more innings in three consecutive seasons and won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021, he's probably the most accomplished starter to reach the open market since Cole after the 2019 campaign. Burnes may not have the same ceiling as Cole overall, but he's certainly a top-10 starter in the sport right now, if not higher. Topping the $31 million AAV that Snell signed for with the Giants last year seems doable over a six- or seven-year commitment.

2024 Stats: .288/.419/.

569, 23 HRs, 109 RBI, 129 BB, .989 OPS and 8.1 WAR Age in 2025: 26 Contract Prediction: 14 years, $658 million with opt-out available after 2030 season Team Prediction: New York Yankees For as much as everyone would like to sign Juan Soto, the market may end up being relatively limited for a player Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently said is hoping to get $700 million in free agency.

There's only a few ownership groups willing to spend that type of money, even for a 26-year-old who is probably the most enticing free agent since Alex Rodriguez hit the open market after the 2000 season. Consider that one of the owners who has consistently shelled out big money in recent years— Phillies managing partner John Middleton —recently cast doubt on whether Soto would really leave New York. "I'm afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don't mind being a stalking horse," he said, per Conor Smith of The Philadelphia Inquirer .

"At some point, if Dave and I get that feeling, we'll probably say 'You know what, we're not going to win this' because we've both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It's perfectly good strategy.

I mean, it's smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York." Soto began his career with the Nationals, winning a World Series with D.

C. in 2019. He had a detour with the Padres for a year-and-a-half.

But the second he put on the Yankees pinstripes, it just felt like he was always meant to play in New York. In his first season with the Yankees, he put up the finest campaign in a career that's probably already headed to Cooperstown, hitting 41 home runs with 109 RBI, a .989 OPS and a career-high 8.

1 WAR . Considering he also sent the Yankees to the World Series with an epic at-bat that culminated in a go-ahead home run against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the ALCS, it's difficult to imagine the Yankees letting him out the door: With that said, the Steinbrenner family is no longer the richest ownership group in New York. Steve Cohen of the Mets is worth $21.

3 billion, per Forbes . It was the Mets that edged out the Yankees for the highest payroll this past season at $317 million . The Mets also reached the NLCS and are arguably set up even better for long-term success than the Yankees.

So it appears it will be one of the two New York teams that employs Soto for the foreseeable future. Heyman has reported that both Hal Steinbrenner and Cohen plan to visit with Boras and Soto on the West Coast in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how the two try to differentiate their offers.

The Yankees have the slight advantage of incumbency, but it would hardly be a shock if Soto is a Met next year..