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With the Milkipur Assembly seat in Ayodhya district of Uttar Pradesh back with the BJP, the saffron party seems to have won the perception battle for the Hindutva brand of politics in the State for now, just eight months after a humiliating loss in the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat (where Ayodhya is located). Winning the Milkipur Assembly seat was crucial for the BJP for its identity politics. Before this, in November 2024, the party had gone all out to ensure that it retained the Kedarnath Assembly seat in Uttarakhand; Kedarnath is one of the Char Dham (four sacred sites) for Hindu pilgrims.
The BJP already lost one of the Char Dham—the Badrinath seat in Garhwal—first during the 2022 Assembly election and then in the byelection in July 2024. Hence, winning Kedarnath and Ayodhya were significant for the saffron party. Mood among voters With Milkipur, whose election results were declared on February 8, the BJP has won 8 of the 10 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh where byelections were held in the past three months.
However, Ratnakar Tripathi, a Varanasi-based political commentator, said that the results of byelections are never an indicator of the voters’ mood as the aftermath of the results always casts a shadow over voting since the verdicts, unlike Assembly results, do not change the existing government. He added: “The victory in Milkipur reflects the prevailing fear among the people that if the desired outcomes are not achieved, they will face the wrath of the government. Voters were apprehensive that Chief Minister Adityanath might punish those who oppose him.
This fear reflected in the byelections for the nine seats last year, when the BJP wrested Kundarki and Katehri from the Samajwadi Party [SP] barely a few months after losing the general election in the same areas. Milkipur followed the same pattern. The fact is that Adityanath used every means to assert his dominance, and the administration was excessively misused to influence the overall process.
” Also Read | How the SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh became a sponge that soaked in people’s discontent against BJP and Modi Accusing the Chief Minister of “misusing” government resources to win Milkipur, Tripathi said that he not only influenced the local administration but also employed dubious means to ensure victory. “It is evident that, albeit reluctantly, many voters voted for the BJP due to the potential consequences that could arise from a loss. This intimidation was apparent.
The entire administration was operating under the Chief Minister’s pressure, with all resources mobilised to secure his victory. The threat was effective as officials understand that failing to deliver the expected results could result in severe repercussions,” he added. However, the BJP is touting the results as a reaffirmation of Adityanath’s leadership, which was facing questions after the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally in the State in 2024 came down to just 33 from 71 in 2014 and 62 in 2019.
Polling officials with electronic voting machines ahead of the Milkipur Assembly byelection, in Ayodhya on February 4. | Photo Credit: PTI After the BJP’s dismal performance in the general election—data showed that the BJP led in only 162 of 403 Assembly segments in 2024, while in the 2022 Assembly election, the party bagged 255 seats—internal manouevres began to replace Adityanath. What rankled the saffron party more is the fact that its sitting MP lost in Ayodhya despite the high-profile consecration ceremony of the Ram temple in January 2024.
Hence, the party was leaving no stone unturned to turn the tide in the Assembly byelections that followed, particularly in Milkipur. The BJP has won Milkipur, Phulpur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Majhawan, Katehari, and Kundarki, while its ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), won Meerapur; the SP has bagged two seats, namely Karhal and Sishamau. In 2022, the SP emerged victorious in Milkipur, Sishamau, Katehari, Karhal, and Kundarki.
How BJP bagged Milkipur In Milkipur, the BJP fielded Chandrabhan Paswan, while the SP candidate was Ajit Prasad, son of Awadhesh Prasad, who won it in 2022 and vacated it to contest and win the Lok Sabha election from Ayodhya. Former BJP MP Lallu Singh, who lost to Awadhesh Prasad in 2024, went the extra mile to ensure the BJP’s dominant-caste support base in Milikpur remained intact, while Chandrabhan Paswan, who belongs to the Pasi community, a Scheduled Caste, managed to secure a big chunk of the Dalit vote. Nearly 60 per cent of the SC votes in the constituency belong to the Pasi community.
On October 30, 2024, the Uttar Pradesh government lit over 25 lakh diyas (lamps) along the Sarayu river during the Ayodhya Deepotsav and reached out to the Kumhar (potter) caste from the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) by procuring the diyas from them, even as the SP accused the BJP of politicising the festival. Sharat Pradhan, a political commentator who has observed Uttar Pradesh politics for decades, told Frontline that the Milkipur election outcome was a foregone conclusion in the same manner as the byelections to nine Assembly constituencies in November 2024. Strong-arm tactics “The reason is not too far to seek.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath adopted the same policy to ensure a smooth victory in seven of the nine constituencies. His police ensured the previous win too. Once again, the cops made it difficult for voters, particularly in SP-dominated parts of Milkipur, to go and vote.
On the other hand, voters had a field day in areas known to be dominated by the BJP. Complaints made to the Election Commission fell on deaf ears. Hence, it was clearly evident even on the date of polling that the BJP would snatch the seat from the SP,” Pradhan said.
That the BJP was slowly bridging the gap in Milkipur has been evident for some time. Awadhesh Prasad won the Assembly seat in 2022 by a margin of 13,338 votes against the BJP, but when he contested the Lok Sabha election in 2024, his lead had come down to 8,000. “With the SP-Congress alliance in 2024 having fetched good results for both parties, the possibility of the alliance continuing for the 2027 Assembly election appears likely.
” In the February byelection, the BJP made a huge comeback in Milkipur by defeating the SP candidate by nearly 62,000 votes. The result has raised questions on the durability of the SP’s Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (PDA) pitch, not only in the temple town but the entire State. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav put on a brave face, saying that the Milkipur win could not compensate for the historic loss of Ayodhya, but that did not dampen the saffron party’s celebratory mood.
The BJP is now trying to convince voters that the SP’s surprising victory in 37 of the State’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 was just an aberration and does not indicate a lasting political shift in the State. Dalit vote The BJP can also take solace in the fact that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the traditional third pole of Uttar Pradesh politics, failed to make an impact in the byelections, which means that large chunks of the non-Jatav Dalit vote and even the Dalit vote will stay with the BJP as trends in previous elections have shown. The BSP, which has become a pale shadow of its former self after three consecutive Assembly election defeats, failed to inspire voters to support it.
After not winning a single seat, BSP leader Mayawati has now gone back to her original decision of not contesting byelections. The BSP, which secured 30.4 per cent of the votes in the 2007 Assembly election, has seen a steady erosion in its vote share: 12.
7 per cent in the 2022 Assembly election and 9.39 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The future certainly does not look bright for the party.
Also Read | Has Dalit politics lost its insurgent spirit in Uttar Pradesh? Even the newbie in Uttar Pradesh’s Dalit politics, Chandrashekhar Azad ’s Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), failed to win any seat. Azad’s Lok Sabha victory in Nagina may have just been a flash in the pan. The party stood third in Meerapur and Kundarki, fourth in Phulpur, Karhal, Khair, Katehari, and Majhawan, and fifth in Ghaziabad.
The Congress, which breathed fire in Delhi against the Aam Aadmi Party and fiercely contested the Assembly election there, stayed away from the byelection in Uttar Pradesh. With the SP-Congress alliance in 2024 having fetched good results for both parties, the possibility of the alliance continuing for the 2027 Assembly election appears likely. The parties will also need to stick together as the record-breaking turnout at the Mahakumbh pilgrimage in Prayagraj has only helped the BJP strengthen its Hindutva outreach.
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