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Winter is just around the corner. But instead of snow-covered landscapes and cold, we can expect mild weather with occasional rainfall, reports Weeronline. The weather service is basing its forecast on seasonal models.
“It looks like we will start December with calm and often dry weather, slightly milder than normal temperatures,” Weeronline reports. Normal amounts of rain and temperatures are expected in the second half of December. January and February will also generally be much milder than usual, with rainfall likely to be normal, according to the seasonal models.
However, there are scenarios in which colder easterly winds could make January colder. The average maximum temperature in a typical winter is 7 degrees today, according to the weather service. The minimum temperature in winter usually is 1 degree above zero.
Furthermore, the average precipitation per winter month is between 60 and 80 millimeters. Due to climate change, the chance of snow and ice has only decreased further. The wind blows even more often from the mild southwest and when the wind does blow from the cold north, much less cold air is supplied than halfway through the previous century, according to Weeronline.
Another harbinger of a mild winter is autumn, which was also mild this year. “The ten mildest autumn seasons of all time were followed by no fewer than eight that also had a mild winter,” Weeronline reports. At 12 degrees, the North Sea is also still quite warm at the moment.
When the wind blows over the warm North Sea water in our direction, there is no real winter chill. Even in a warming climate, not all winters are mild. Since 2000, six winters have been colder than normal, and 19 have been significantly milder than average.
Based on these statistics, the probability of a cold winter is only 25 percent, according to the weather service. However, even in some mild winters, there was sometimes a typical winter with snow and icy temperatures..
