Mexico, Betting Trump Is Bluffing on Tariffs, Sees an Opportunity

MONTERREY, Mexico — Like much of the Mexican business world, Daniel Córdova finds himself grappling with an enormous variable looming across the U.S. border: the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Córdova oversees a factory outside the city of Monterrey that makes heating and air-conditioning units for Trane, an American company. The first time Trump was president, he unleashed a trade war against China that proved beneficial to Mexican industry. Companies that relied on Chinese factories to make goods for the American market shifted production to plants in Mexico to avoid Trump’s tariffs.



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