Marine Le Pen seems politically dead, but can the far right win in France without her?

“It’s my political death they want,” far-right leader Marine Le Pen claimed in November – a prediction that proved prescient, though few took it seriously at the time. The three-time French presidential candidate saw her path to power cut short on Monday when a court ruling banned her from running for public office for five years, triggering a political earthquake in France and knocking the frontrunner out of the 2027 presidential race. But far from decapitating the far right, this ruling – that followed a guilty verdict on embezzlement charges – could actually strengthen it by fueling populist grievances and accelerating the rebranding of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party.

It could finally free RN from the Le Pen name that has both defined its identity and plagued it for decades. “One should celebrate that a legal system independently delivered a verdict, but the impact of social media is so powerful that there is a fundamental lack of trust in leaders. Do people walk away feeling good about this ruling, or do they walk away with an overwhelming feeling of yuckiness?” CNN European affairs commentator Dominic Thomas said.



For RN supporters, the verdict plays into a belief that the system is rigged against them. Some see this as an assault on democracy with Le Pen framing the ruling as an attack on “the will of the people.” The justice system, she argues, is being weaponized – much like US President Donald Trump’s claims of a “witch hunt.

” This sentiment was echoed by Elon Musk who reacted to the sentence on X by saying: “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.” Allies of Le Pen were quick to blast the guilty verdict using words such as “ judicial overreach ” and “ shameful .” Even some of her rivals voiced concern over the implications of the sentence.

Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said he was “troubled” while current French Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin posted on X in November that it would be “profoundly shocking” if she were to be barred from elections. Le Pen’s protégé While Le Pen’s supporters publicly decry the ruling, the ban will fast-track a leadership transition already underway within the party. Her handpicked successor, Jordan Bardella , now stands to inherit the job of spearheading the movement she spent years building.

Dominique Moisi, a political analyst, suggested that some within RN might secretly welcome this development. “In public they will shout. They will denounce.

They will say, ‘What an awful thing.’ But deep down many, many might be pleased, thinking, ‘This is a younger candidate. He’s more appealing to a larger crowd.

And he doesn’t wear the name Le Pen.’” Le Pen, 56, handpicked Bardella to head the party in 2022 – ending a 50-year-rule by the Le Pen dynasty – and bring a fresh boost to the French populist right. Hailed as the answer to attempts to detoxify the party and attract a younger crowd, the charismatic Bardella has helped distance the party from its founder and Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

And at just 29 years old, he already polls as well as his mentor. The next battle? On the other hand, Le Pen’s exit could embolden other politicians to enter the race, such as her niece Marion Marechal or conservative heavyweights like current interior minister Bruno Retailleau, who boasts far more experience than the relatively green Bardella. The question remains whether Bardella can maintain the party’s momentum without the Le Pen brand.

According to pollster Antoine Bristielle, RN voters are among the most loyal. A look at voter patterns shows they were the most consistent in turnout for their party in the 2022 French presidential election, compared to other parties. “There’s loyalty to the Le Pen name and to the Le Pen brand.

But if it’s not her, does Bardella have what it takes to win a president election?” Bristielle said. Le Pen still has the option of appealing to the Conseil Constitutionnel, which must weigh both the law and the conditional right to “freedom of elections.” She has also announced that she will appeal her conviction.

Until then the RN has the power to cause significant disruption. As the largest party in France’s parliament, it could potentially topple the government by supporting a vote of no-confidence. Whether Le Pen’s “political death” marks the end of an era or simply a new chapter for France’s far right remains to be seen.

But 2025 has delivered a double blow for the Le Pen dynasty – first with Jean Marie Le Pen’s passing in January and now Marine’s forced departure from the political stage..