Lorne Gunter: Smith needs to let Alberta's collective outrage set the autonomy agenda

Article content According to calculations by Vancouver’s Fraser Institute, between 2007 and 2022 Alberta and Albertans sent $245 billion more to the federal government than the federal government sent back to this province in the form of pensions and social payments, unemployment benefits, research grants, health care contributions, affordable housing construction and so on. Some of that is understandable. We are the most prosperous province.

We can expect to contribute more to Confederation than we get out. But $245 billion? Over just 15 years? That’s more than $16 billion a year. There has to be some limit to our obligation to fund the national experiment, particularly when the national government is Liberal and hostile to our major industry.



The second-place province — B.C. — contributed $47 billion during that time, while Ontario, with three times Alberta’s population, contributed just one-sixth as much.

On a per capita basis, for every $1 Ontario contributed, Alberta contributed $18. Alberta is doing the bulk of the heavy lifting in Confederation. On the Canada Pension Plan, alone, Alberta has kicked in $54 billion more than its residents have taken out since 1981.

British Columbia, at $9 billion, is the only other net contributor. Every other province, Ontario included, has received more in benefits than its residents paid in premiums. The viability of a made-in-Alberta pension plan begins to sink in.

With the strong possibility of another Liberal majority government ruling Canada for the next four years, the provincial UCP government is wise to start planning ways to minimize Ottawa’s grabby, preachy interference in Alberta. I like Premier Danielle Smith’s overtures to her Quebec counterpart, Premier Francois Legault, to explore ways in which their two governments can work together on greater provincial autonomy from Ottawa. Don’t hold your breath that this is the start of a beautiful friendship.

Quebec and Quebec politicians — Legault included — have been the biggest single source of federal hostility to Alberta expanding its oil and gas industry. Quebec’s provincial government and senior Quebec ministers in the federal cabinet of Justin Trudeau effectively killed the Energy East pipeline that would already be taking Alberta oil to East Coast refineries and ports, an away from the U.S.

And Quebecers stand in the way, still. For instance, Trudeau’s former radical environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, is now Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Quebec lieutenant. There may be some tentative budging over a pipeline across Quebec (although I am not optimistic).

However, there will be no budging on reducing equalization payments or “green” mandates or Ottawa’s favouritism towards funding of roads, bridges, farms, businesses and federal buildings in Quebec. Premier Smith has been following the Quebec playbook in dealing with Ottawa ever since she took over in late 2022. Where Quebec has wrangled a concession from the feds or demanded greater autonomy, Alberta has followed suit (or at least adopted a similar tone and tactics), which is smart.

Also, Smith won’t rule out a referendum on independence, even if just as a bargaining chip. But Smith should ease into autonomy and independence slowly. Let Ottawa strike the first blows.

If the Liberals win on April 28, she won’t have to wait long. The Carney Liberals will interpret their mandate not just as an endorsement of their perceived ability to handle U.S.

President Donald Trump, but also as a desire by voters to keep imposing the economically destructive policies of Trudeau’s “lost decade.” The outrages against Alberta will follow in short order. And let Albertans’ outrage set the momentum.

Even just a vote on independence is a drastic step. The idea of a provincial pension was a good one, but Smith jumped too soon. She didn’t let public interest in the idea grow into an unstoppable momentum.

If she wants the threat of independence to work, she can’t let her impatience push her out ahead of ordinary Albertans, or they’ll never vote for the idea..