1 week Ago
After demolishing the Dallas Cowboys last week, the Detroit Lions hit the road Sunday to face the rival Minnesota Vikings with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Vikings are favored by 1.5 points across Michigan betting sites after a 5-0 start followed by a bye week. The Lions have won three straight games in this divisional matchup dating back to 2022, but Minnesota is one of two undefeated teams and has the recipe to frustrate the preseason NFC North favorites.
Here is our Lions vs. Vikings betting preview, betting odds and predictions for Sunday’s contest as part of the NFL Week 7 schedule. For all of the compelling subplots in this divisional rivalry, I’m fascinated to see the matchup between Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Johnson has had Detroit’s offense humming through six weeks, ranking first in points per game (30.2 PPG) while sitting third in EPA/play (0.17) and yards per play (6.
3). It’s not just this dynamic rushing attack, either, as Jared Goff has posted by far the NFL’s best passer rating (146.6) over the last month.
. @Lions are not slowing down. JAMO TD! 📺: #DETvsDAL on FOX 📱: https://t.
co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/TGryqHZ7bA That said, the Lions are yet to face a defense ranked in the top half in EPA/play.
The Vikings rank first (-0.21) and it isn’t particularly close. Opponents have scored on just 21.
7% of drives against Minnesota, which also leads the league in interceptions (11) even after a bye week. The Vikings are also tied for the NFL’s highest pressure rate (32.6%), and their 20 sacks rank third overall and first among teams with five games played.
Goff has performed better against the blitz this year, but he still ranks 23rd among 32 qualified passers in PFF passing grade under pressure. With two weeks for Flores to dial up pressure schemes against Goff, I‘m not sure we’ll see the same success from Detroit’s offense on Sunday - especially with Minnesota boasting an elite run defense, too. The Vikings opened as 1.
5-point home favorites across the best Michigan sportsbooks , and we’ve seen that line hold in the days leading up to Sunday. We briefly saw this line bet all the way up to 2.5 at shops like FanDuel Sportsbook , which is still offering the best moneyline odds for Detroit at +108.
But the line shifted back to 1.5 across the board on Wednesday and could remain there all the way until kickoff. We’ve also seen some decent movement on the betting total, which was as low as 49 at Caesars Sportsbook on Tuesday but has since shot up to 50.
5. Those looking to fade that movement will find the best Under price at DraftKings Sportsbook , which is the only shop offering -108 odds. There were already enough questions about Detroit’s defense, which ranks eighth in points allowed (18.
2 PPG) but 20th in opponent success rate (44.3%). Then star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson went down with a likely season-ending injury, which changes the entire outlook for this unit.
The Lions' secondary was a major concern entering the year, but the team’s pass defense has held up thanks to the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate (29.1%). Obviously, that’ll be tough to sustain without Hutchinson, who led the league in sacks (7.
5) and total pressures (45) before last week’s injury. . @mspears96 on how Aidan Hutchinson's absence impacts Detroit's defense 👀 pic.
twitter.com/TVvFLU50gS Given how much Detroit relies on man coverage, it needs to create pressure to avoid getting picked apart by Sam Darnold, who has played at an MVP level through the first six weeks. If the Lions try to blitz more to generate pressure without Hutchinson, that plays right into Darnold’s hands, as he ranks second in EPA/dropback (0.
52) when facing five or more pass rushers. In a matchup between two California kids at quarterback, this feels like an advantage for Darnold given the opposition. Goff is facing the most opportunistic defense in the league, and he’s priced at -108 via FanDuel to throw an interception on Sunday.
Conversely, Darnold is dealing at -115 odds via Fanatics Sportsbook to finish with at least two passing touchdowns, which he’s done in four of five starts this year. While a healthy Aaron Jones (hamstring) could cut into Darnold’s volume, it would be a boon for his efficiency. His only game without a passing TD came two weeks ago when Jones played just 16 snaps.
The first bet I made on the NFL this week was Vikings -1.5, and it’s still one of my favorite values of Week 7. That isn‘t a slight against the Lions, whom I view as one of the few true contenders in the NFC regardless of Sunday’s result.
Yet I have too many concerns about their offense in this matchup and their defense without Hutchinson to trust the road underdogs in a tough environment..
