1 week Ago By anthonypauldalessandro
If Disney and Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts * doesn’t kick off summer with a projected $70M start, then don’t worry, the studio’s live-action Lilo & Stitch and Paramount/Skydance’s finale Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning will absolutely get the job down when they hit theaters over Memorial Day weekend. Six weekend-in-advance tracking has hit for both movies on Quorum with Lilo & Stitch eyeing a $100M+ 3-day opening and M:I 8 eyeing a record 3-day for the franchise, well north of 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout ‘s $61M. Remember how sucky last year’s Memorial Day weekend was at the box office with Furiosa and Garfield leading a $132.
2M weekend? Well, none of that is bound to happen here, knock on wood. Watch on Deadline Related Stories Disney Shows Extended Scene From Live-Action 'Lilo & Stitch' At CinemaCon After Trailer Made A Splash - Watch Tom Cruise Pays Tribute To Val Kilmer, Asks CinemaCon For Moment Of Silence Everyone bristles when Quorum releases their super early forecasts: The tracking firm was spot on weeks in advance for the openings of Deadpool & Wolverine , Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mickey 17 , Captain America: Brave New World among others, however, on some family titles like Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 they were a miss far in advance. There’s always an asterisk on any projection at this early point since a pic’s campaign hasn’t fully kicked in.
As we saw with A Minecraft Movie last weekend, the buzz that the movie could far and away exceed its early week $65M projection didn’t occur until the Thursday before its opening as Warners and Legendary doubled down on a social media and digital push. Studios in the social media era always significantly backload their campaign pushes. However, get a load of Quorum’s data: Overall total awareness for Lilo & Stitch (62) and M:I 8 (59) outstrip that of Thunderbolts* (37).
Among those who’ll watch these movies in theater versus home, both Lilo and M:I 8 at 50 apiece are ahead of the MCU movie about ragtag heroes at 42. The 3-day projection makes sense for Lilo & Stitch since it’s Disney’s second most viewed live-action trailer at 158M. Note, that the buzz for M:I 8 will amplify post its London world premiere and Out of Competition screening at the Cannes Film Festival next month.
Separately, we hear Thunderbolts* advance ticket sales are ahead of Shang-Chi ‘s ($75.3M) at the same point in time. Post Covid, the best Memorial Day weekend for all titles was in 2022 with $223.
7M from Friday to Monday. That’s when Top Gun: Maverick yielded Tom Cruise’s best opening ever at a $126.7M 3-day/$160.
5M 4-day. The record haul for the Memorial Day holiday was 2013 when all movies totaled $314.2M per Box Office Mojo, that weekend led by Fast & Furious 6 ($117M) and The Hangover Part III ($50.
2M)..
