2 weeks Ago By BNNBloomberg
CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign . Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals now have an 11-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 14 of the federal election campaign, while Mark Carney has opened up a 22-point lead over Pierre Poilievre when it comes to Canadians’ preferences for prime minister. A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 4 has the Liberals at 46 per cent over the Conservatives at 35 per cent. The New Democratic Party remains at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (5 per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“The ballot advantage for the Liberals has increased from five to 11 percentage points since the beginning of the nightly tracking,” said Nik Nanos , chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. Full coverage of federal election 2025 Regional support The Liberals have also increased their lead to 18 points in Ontario, with 53 per cent of those surveyed choosing them over the Conservatives, who have fallen a point since yesterday to 35 per cent. The Liberals also continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 56 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 25 per cent for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are maintaining their lead in Quebec where they sit at 52 per cent today; while the Conservatives are are at 16 per cent. Who is preferred prime minister? When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, 52 per cent chose Carney (up one per cent) compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre (down two per cent). Since the start of the campaign, Nanos said “the advantage of Liberal Leader Mark Carney over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has opened up from 16 to 22 points.
” Gender gap A gender breakdown of the Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Fifty-two per cent of women (up one per cent since yesterday) surveyed said they would support the Liberals; compared with 29 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative (up by one per cent). Meanwhile, the number of men who said they’d vote Liberal has increased to 40 per cent (up one per cent since yesterday) compared with 41 per cent for the Conservatives (down three per cent).
“Liberals are within the margin of error of each other among male voters for the first time in the Nanos tracking since June 2022,” said Nanos, while “Liberals have a comfortable 23 point lead over the Conservatives among women voters. Methodology CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 31 April 2, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
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