2 days Ago By BNNBloomberg
CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign . Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals have a marginal five-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 26 of the 36-day federal election campaign, while a breakdown of voter intention by age shows an “absolute dead heat” when it comes to key middle aged voters. A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 16 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 39 per cent nationally. The New Democratic Party is at 9, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
Regional support Regionally, Liberal support remains strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec and in B.C.; while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies.
In seat-rich Ontario the Liberals’ lead has reduced to a four-point advantage in the rolling sample and they are at 46 per cent versus the Conservatives, who are at 42 per cent . The NDP has risen a point to nine per cent. Following Wednesday night’s French leaders’ debate, the Liberals continue their lead in Quebec and are at 47 per cent , compared with the Conservatives at 21 .
The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 25 per cent . “The first night of tracking which occurred concurrently with the French leaders debate shows the race in Quebec currently stable,” said Nik Nanos , official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “That said, debate impact many times has two phases.
First on those that watched the debate and the second on those that read, watch or listen to the post debate news and analysis. It will take another day or two to fully gauge the fallout of the French debate.” In the Prairies , the Conservatives continue to dominate with 59 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 27 per cent for the Liberals.
In B.C. , meanwhile, the Conservatives have lost the lead they had a week ago and are now at 37 per cent , with the Liberals at 43 per cent .
Full coverage of federal election 2025 The strong Liberal lead in the Atlantic region continues with 61 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at seven per cent . Who is preferred prime minister? When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney has a 13-point advantage, with 47 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 34 per cent.
By gender and age A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be far more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 30 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Ten per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent, compared with 48 for the Conservatives. Only eight per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP. The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 has risen to 11 per cent, with 45 per cent of those surveyed backing the Conservatives versus 34 per cent for the Liberals.
Thirteen per cent chose the NDP. The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-one per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 33 for the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, a neck-and-neck battle is brewing between those aged 35 to 54 , where it’s a tie with both Conservatives and Liberals at 42 per cent. “Throughout the campaign the Liberals have led among voters over 55 years of age and the Conservatives among voters under 35. The battle for middle aged voters is an absolute dead heat,” said Nanos.
“They represent a key demographic with a strong likelihood to vote.” Methodology CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 14 to 16, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
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