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Postsecondary graduates are facing tough odds as they attempt to enter the labour market during such an uncertain economic climate. The volatile landscape created by U.S.
President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs is expected to create one of the worst job markets for new graduates in a decade. Canada’s youth unemployment rate was 13.7 per cent in March, roughly double the overall average rate of 6.
7 per cent, and experts say new graduates looking for a job in May will find companies hesitant to commit to new hiring. “The sad reality is, young people are the last hired and the first fired any time the economy hits trouble, and unfortunately, we’re going to see that again in the coming month,” said Jim Stanford, economist and director at the Centre for Future Work. “This summer job season will be brutal, no doubt about it.
” Mr. Stanford predicts Canada will enter a recession this spring lasting two years or longer, and that the lack of confidence in the economy will lead to cautious hiring practices that could hinder growth and employment opportunities. “We’re going to see very little new job creation in the labour market and potentially some significant job losses.
And both of those are hardest for people entering the labour market because they are starting from the bottom.” According to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey released last week, hiring intentions for the coming year are at a lower level than they were at any point during the pandemic. The numbers have only been this low twice in the past two decades: during the Great Recession in 2008 and when oil prices crashed in 2015.
More companies than usual intend to maintain their employee levels over the coming year, but the number planning to cut staff remains similar to previous quarters. The survey also showed that uncertainty surrounding financial, economic and political conditions remains the top concern for employers, with 32 per cent of firms assuming that a recession will occur in Canada over the coming year, up from 15 per cent over the past two quarters. The reduction in available jobs has not been abrupt so far, however.
Since Mr. Trump announced his first tariffs on Feb. 1, Canadian job postings declined 2.
6 per cent in February and 1.9 per cent in March. Brendon Bernard, senior editor of job posting site Indeed Canada, described the trend on X as “well within typical monthly volatility,” adding in an interview that, overall, “we haven’t seen a major shift yet.
” Wilfrid Laurier University economics professor Tammy Schirle said the turmoil will make it “much, much more difficult” for students to land their first great job, and that could have long-term financial consequences if they have to start their careers in a lower-paying position. A 2021 study published in Canadian Public Policy found that poor labour market conditions at the start of a worker’s career can lead to significant earnings loss for several years. “When you’re negotiating with a new employer, even if you’re starting to get out of that recession period, the new employer is looking at what you used to get paid in your old job and using that as your negotiating position,” Prof.
Schirle said. “So that’s going to help that persistence in your low earnings.” “Eventually, you’ll come back to where you would have been otherwise, but it’s going to take time.
” Students such as Olivia Washington say they are feeling this struggle and adapting as best they can. Ms. Washington, who will graduate with a B.
A. in professional communication from Toronto Metropolitan University this spring, plans to move back to her home country of Bermuda, where she was able to find a job by networking. “In an ideal world, I would have loved to stay in Toronto,” she said.
“But with the cost of living and now this trade war, and everybody seeming to be looking for a job all at the same time, I haven’t had much luck in securing employment.” Others such as Saniya Mirza, a biomedical engineering student at Toronto Metropolitan University who is also graduating this spring, are still searching. “It’s scary,” Ms.
Mirza said. “I’m applying everywhere. It’s just application after application.
” “Hopefully I get a job soon and then I’ll go from there, but for now, nothing.” While students are doing their best to stand out in the marketplace, Mr. Stanford said “there really isn’t an individual solution to a macroeconomic problem.
” “The reality is, if we lose a million jobs and the unemployment rate goes to 10 per cent, then it’s going to be very hard for new graduates to find work, no matter how snappy their résumé is.”.
