1 week Ago
I AM NOT going to try to figure out why Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump. Everyone has an opinion. So, let’s leave it to the talking heads on cable television to discuss what happened nationally.
Instead, let’s look at the New Hampshire results. Republicans had a good night in the Granite State, keeping control of the governor’s office and the Executive Council while increasing their numbers in the legislature. The results will mean the enactment of some bad legislation.
For example, after decades of failed attempts, the anti-union Right to Work bill will pass. Incoming Governor Kelly Ayotte will sign it. The Legislature will expand the school voucher program, perhaps even eliminating minimum financial qualifications.
A big chunk of your property tax dollars will pay the tuition of wealthy children attending expensive, heavily endowed prep schools. More property tax dollars will go to religious schools, no matter their beliefs or yours. Home schools will continue to have little or no accountability.
All of them will be exempt from new restrictions that the Legislature will impose on public schools. The good news is that there is another election in two years, and 2024 election data was not all bad for Democrats. State Republicans boasted about their successful efforts to register new social and fiscal conservatives to vote, an effort so successful that they may drop their years long opposition to same day voter registration.
That increase in registration did not yield a Trump victory, however. Harris won, 417,083 to Trump’s 394,869. The percentage margin was closer than 2020, but Harris’s vote was only off by about 7,000 votes from Biden’s 2020 vote.
Trump’s 2024 vote was 394,869, compared to 365,660 in 2020. That is an increase of about 29,000 votes, but his total was still significantly less — 40,000 votes less — than Ayotte’s 434,594 votes. Nor did the registration effort translate into victories for the Republican congressional candidates.
First District Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas’s 218,431 vote victory gave him his biggest vote total ever, despite the vaunted increase in Republican registration. Meanwhile, in the Second District, Democratic candidate Maggie Goodlander defeated Lily Tang Williams by 210,868 votes to 187,892. The solid victories for Democratic federal candidates showed again that New Hampshire voters are comfortable with thoughtful, articulate, moderate Democratic candidates like Pappas and Goodlander.
Their two opponents were just too extreme. In the governor’s race, Ayotte did have a large victory, but it required $21 million, a deceptive tax issue, perhaps the most negative campaign in New Hampshire history, and a blow to her favorability ratings. She also appeared (I stress the word “appeared”) moderate enough to appeal to some swing voters who went with Harris along with Goodlander or Pappas.
While Ayotte won, Joyce Craig received a larger vote than any other Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Maggie Hassan’s blue wave win in 2012. As for the legislative races, the increase in registration may have helped Republicans, but what really gave them more seats were the concocted tax issue and gerrymandered districts. What is the Democratic path from here in New Hampshire? Capitalize on Republican overreaching.
Look for Republican legislators to introduce the type of extreme bills that will alienate voters, such as anti-vax bills, secession bills, and the other crazy stuff they have introduced in the past. It also is going to be a rough budget cycle for Republicans as tax revenues continue to decrease and Trump slashes federal funding. Cuts in services will impact economic growth and efforts to address issues like crime, drugs and homelessness.
Democrats need to focus on the bread and butter issues people care about, like property taxes, clean water, crime, housing, drugs and education. They also need to figure out how to get their story, and the story of Republican failures, out to voters in an increasing political news desert. Most importantly, they need to visibly demonstrate steady competence and moderation, like Pappas and Goodlander.
It also is going to be a rough two years for Kelly Ayotte. Chris Sununu leaves the state with a number of big financial headaches, such as the Youth Development Center abuse cases, the education funding litigation, the mental health litigation, and more. Where will she find the money without cutting essential services? There are pitfalls ahead for Republicans, and opportunities for Democrats.
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