Israel’s attack on Iran would hardly have been welcome news in Washington. But the fact that it appeared calibrated will have Kamala Harris breathing a sigh of relief — at least for now. Ten days before the US presidential election, has been temporarily averted.
Israel could have opted to damage Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities with its early morning strike, which would undoubtedly have triggered a robust response from Tehran. But Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have heeded Joe Biden’s warnings against that course of action, instead striking weapons manufacturing facilities and missile defence sites within Iranian territory. Mr Biden told reporters he received a “heads up from Israel” on their plans.
“It looks like they didn’t hit anything other than military targets,” the US president said after emerging from an intelligence briefing on Saturday. The Netanyahu government’s relatively muted public posture in the aftermath of the strike offered an opportunity for Tehran to obfuscate over the exact damage it had caused. So far, the Islamic regime has done just that, in a way that suggests it will opt against a forceful response.
While that is far from a given, and the situation remains precarious, the Harris campaign will be relieved that a worst-case scenario has been averted. Such an outcome was far from guaranteed mere weeks ago, when Iran launched a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. A spiralling conflict would also have further complicated the already fraught efforts to secure a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, just as another round of US-backed talks between Israel and Hamas are due to begin.
The humanitarian situation in the coastal strip remains a major political liability for Ms Harris, as does , which have killed hundreds of civilians, including large numbers of women and children. A large swathe of once reliably Democratic voters are threatening to withhold their ballots in protest potentially costing the US vice-president in the key swing states. The chances of a serious resolution to the conflict before Nov 5 are vanishingly slim, and the drawn-out negotiations between Hamas and Israel have only served to underscore the Biden-Harris administration’s political impotence.
White House aides believe Mr Netanyahu has little incentive to cooperate in the run up to the US election. The Israeli prime minister views Donald Trump as a better ally and has tested the bounds of diplomatic convention by holding multiple calls with the Republican candidate in the run up to election day. In off-the-cuff remarks, Mr Biden confessed he was “not surprised” by the open channel of communication between Trump and Mr Netanyahu and expressed his displeasure at the situation.
Nevertheless, Mr Biden’s own call with Mr Netanyahu earlier this month, after weeks of silence, has achieved the president’s most immediate goal. The Israeli prime minister reassured the president he would not strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, despite pressure from hardliners within his government. It was a rare example of Mr Netanyahu demonstrating restraint in response to Mr Biden’s efforts.
Ms Harris, for one, will be grateful..
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Kamala Harris can breathe a sigh of relief over the Middle East — for now
Israel’s attack on Iran would hardly have been welcome news in Washington.