Justin Trudeau will let the Conservatives try to topple his minority government next week: sources

OTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could see his government fall next week after the Liberals offered the Conservative Official Opposition the first chance at presenting a motion of non-confidence in the House of Commons, despite the Liberals’ loss Monday of a key Montreal-area seat, the Star has learned. The Conservatives have been informed by the Liberal House leader they will get a day to set the parliamentary agenda on Tuesday, Sept. 24, with a vote the following day, Wednesday, Sept.

25. At that time, Conservatives and their Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has vowed to trigger an election at the earliest opportunity, could call for the defeat of the Trudeau government. If they succeed in winning the support of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP, a non-confidence motion could pass, triggering the fall of the government.



Defiant, Trudeau is willing to test the NDP’s and the Bloc’s resolve to go to a general election — a prospect which the Bloc has downplayed. A senior government official said the Liberals are confident neither the NDP nor the Bloc want to go to the polls. The insider said also that a decision to delay any Opposition motions would signal weakness “that we just don’t feel” so the Liberals plan to plow ahead with their parliamentary agenda.

The move caught the Opposition parties off-guard. “It’s up to the Liberals,” said a senior NDP source, who noted that a pharmacare bill to offer free contraceptive and diabetes medicine is still not passed into law. “They get to schedule confidence votes, and if they schedule one next week, I’m going to take from there that they want to go into an election.

That they would rather kill pharmacare and go to an election.” The Conservatives did not immediately offer comment although Poilievre has repeatedly said he wants the government to fall so Canadians can vote in what he calls a “carbon tax election.” Trudeau, on the other hand, is facing renewed pressure to right the Liberal ship after his governing party lost another stronghold riding on Monday, with disappointed Grits searching for answers about what went wrong and how they can better prepare for the decisive test of an approaching general election.

The latest byelection defeat for the Liberals, this time on Monday in the long-held Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, sparked calls for humility and reflection from cabinet ministers, Liberal MPs and party insiders ahead of Trudeau’s meeting with national caucus on Parliament Hill Wednesday. Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé won a hotly contested byelection in Montreal in the early hours of the morning, narrowly beating out the Liberal candidate. (Sept.

17, 2024 / The Canadian Press) It also had the victors in that contest, the separatist Bloc Québécois, boasting of strengthened influence over Trudeau’s minority government. Meanwhile, the New Democrats, who held the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona despite a strong Conservative challenge, were satisfied with the result just days after they pulled out of the parliamentary alliance that had secured Trudeau in office. But it was the defeat in Montreal — less than three months after another stunning loss in the previously safe Liberal riding of Toronto—St Paul’s — that had Liberals ruminating about how to improve their political standing on Tuesday.

The big question of what went wrong remains unanswered for many Liberals. The question dogged every Liberal cabinet minister heading into a meeting on Parliament Hill Tuesday. Most were still gamely saying they had confidence Trudeau will — and should — stay on as leader, and downplayed the message voters are sending.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh challenged by Montreal and Winnipeg It was Immigration Minister Marc Miller who stated the painfully obvious answer to the question of what went wrong. “Well, we lost,” Miller said wryly. Tackling the bigger question of “why” that happened, Miller did not fault the Liberal campaign.

He, like other ministers, said the Liberals had a good team and candidate in former city councillor Laura Palestini, “who gave it their all,” in Miller’s words. Not all Liberals agreed, however, with one party insider blaming the loss in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in part on poor organization. The insider, who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, said the Liberals nominated their candidate too late — three months after the NDP named theirs — and that they weren’t “well-grounded” enough in the local community.

“Shame on us,” the source said. Alain Therrien, the Bloc house leader, told the Star on Tuesday the Bloc had feared the famed big Liberal get-out-the-vote machine would pull through — but now, the Liberal loss “in a clear stronghold like that” shows the Liberal machine is broken. But the message Liberal MPs and ministers have been given for public consumption was that the Grits can still turn it around if they only focus on Canadians’ priorities — cost of living and housing — communicate better, and if they show voters in a general election the decision to pick a government is a more profound choice with consequences for the country, than the one faced by voters in a byelection.

One Quebec Liberal said “It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong” in the Montreal area race “without seeing the numbers. And to be entirely frank, nobody was sharing the numbers with the caucus.” The Liberal, who spoke on a background-only basis, cited a few factors — the late nomination of a Liberal candidate three months after the NDP had identified their candidate, which foreclosed a competitive Liberal nomination race.

“That was a mistake,” said the insider, who added part of a francophone protest vote “parked with the Bloc but the NDP also made some gains.” Yet, the source said the Liberal campaign had enough volunteers — some 500 were said to have worked to get out the vote — and spent the maximum allowed on the campaign “which leads me to be even more worried that means that something else went wrong. And I think that’s what we’re going to be spending caucus discussing.

” The situation facing the Liberals is increasingly clear and awfully bleak. On his way to a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trudeau told reporters “we are reflecting on how we are going to be able to increase (voter) participation so that people can understand that there’s an important choice to be made in the next election.” “Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold Verdun, but there’s more work to do and we’re going to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” he said.

The long-rumoured aspirants for Trudeau’s job either lined up behind him or were conspicuously silent on a direct question about Trudeau’s leadership. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland slipped by reporters without saying a word and scooted into the cabinet room, despite the fact Statistics Canada had just reported Canada’s annual rate of inflation fell to two per cent in August, its lowest rate in more than three years, hitting the Bank of Canada’s official target. (She later posted on “X” it was “good news,” and some of the credit: “Our economic plan is working for Canadians.

”) Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly dodged questions directly on Trudeau, saying “these are not the results that we were looking for. At the same time, we need to deliver on the priorities of Canadians, and for my part, I’ll do my job, and I’ll continue to defend Canada’s interests around the world.” “We need to be humble today, to take a moment, to take stock,” said Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, adding the choice for Liberals is either “to retreat or double down.

” “I’d rather double down and make sure we work harder to present a vision and a plan,” he said. “We need a dose of optimism in this country. It’s not a time to talk down Canada.

For me it’s the time to talk up” Canada’s potential. Liberal MPs who aren’t in cabinet expressed disappointment about the loss, but those who spoke to the Star on Tuesday said the defeat in Montreal won’t unleash a movement to turf Trudeau as leader, despite the calls for his resignation that followed the party’s byelection loss in Toronto in June. Trudeau told a Montreal radio station last week that he is not going to resign regardless of the results in Monday’s byelections.

“If he’s not stepping down in the next few days, I don’t think he’s stepping down,” said one MP who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity. The MP added the party still must take the defeat seriously, especially since it came on the heels of the byelection defeat in the long-safe Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s.

The MP argued the party should emphasize a “distinction of values” with Poilievre in the coming months as part of a significant strategic shift, rather than try and make changes by shuffling Trudeau’s cabinet or jettisoning top advisers like Trudeau’s chief of staff Katie Telford. “These are two pretty big events,” the MP said, referring to the byelection defeats. “If that’s not going to trigger a change, I don’t know what will.

” Including the byelection results, the Liberals hold 154 seats in the Commons, the Conservatives 119, the Bloc 33, the NDP 25, the Greens two and there are three Independents. Two seats remain vacant. Early indications, however, are the Liberal caucus might go along with the outlines of a plan Liberal strategists unveiled last week in Nanaimo to take them through to the next election.

Quebec MP Jöel Lightbound, who was critical of the way Trudeau led in the pandemic election campaign of 2021, said he plans to run in the next campaign, and “we need to make sure that we communicate properly and that we reinvent ourselves as we go along. We can’t campaign on the past. We need to present a vision for the future.

” “I don’t think that for the Liberals to engage in a leadership race right now would be of much interest to Canadians,” he added. Poilievre, whose teams did not win in either riding, tweeted congratulations to his candidates “for boosting our vote share” by 16 per cent in Elmwood—Transcona and four per cent in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. Poilievre said the byelection outcomes were “devastating results for Trudeau who voters deemed not worth the cost.

”.