John Wheeler: Weather forecasting is not just guessing

FARGO — It is not unusual for a grocery store isle conversation with a stranger about weather forecasting to quickly get to the following question, "So basically, all you guys really do is guess, right?" At some risk of sounding defensive in that moment, and to the readers now, my answer was a polite but resounding, "No, we do not just guess." True, weather forecasting is often challenging and results are rarely spot on. Note, however, that when sudden blizzards "came out of nowhere," decades ago, people died, sometimes by the dozen.

Such tragedies are now avoided because of good weather forecasts and communication. Weather forecasting is still filled with uncertainties and it is the job of the meteorologist to narrow down the possibilities and to explain the uncertainties. A forecast is scientific, but weather is highly dynamic and not easy to measure and this causes imprecision.



That being said, weather forecasting is not just guessing..