John Wheeler: This winter, the coldest weather has average timing

FARGO — The cold weather this weekend is coincident with the lowest point in the smoothed averaged temperatures for our region. The smoothed, averaged temperatures are calculated by taking the daily averages over the period of record and smoothing the small irregularities. This result is called "normalized," giving us the term, "normal temperature," which was never meant to imply the way the weather is somehow supposed to be.

In statistics, "normal" just means the wiggles have been smoothed out of the graph. In any given winter, the coldest temperatures have historically occurred any time between late November and the middle of March. Weather, and particularly the weather here in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, only loosely follows the average temperature plots.



Day to day, month to month, even year to year; the weather has a great deal of randomness as a significant part of its character..