John Wheeler: Do not become concerned about any potential storm when it is a week away.

FARGO — This past week, for the first time this season, premature snowstorm talk began. Any detailed discussion of a storm that is a week or more away is pure fantasy. At seven to 10 days, anything on a weather model or any sort of specific forecast should be considered with the memories of seven- to 10-day forecasts of storms in the past.

It is perfectly fine to show that there is a chance of some sort of storm so that people can begin to take notice and follow forecast trends. However, we as a media-using public and we as a media industry are too often way to quick to take or make the latest wild guess as a the certain truth. Weather models are not that good and even the most experienced professionals are not good enough to know how bad a storm will hit a particular region until the storm is within two or three days.



Then and only then can forecasters begin to refine the details of a winter storm..