James Cleverly is public’s choice for next Tory leader

James Cleverly is the public’s choice to become the , a new poll has suggested. The shadow home secretary narrowly outperformed his four rival candidates in head-to-head polling by Savanta. But Sir Keir Starmer comfortably beat all five hopefuls in a sign of the electoral mountain the Tories will have to climb over the next five years.

When asked which of the two men would make the best prime minister, 47 per cent of respondents said Sir Keir while 23 per cent said Mr Cleverly. Sir Keir was also preferred to Mr Cleverly’s leadership rivals (47 per cent to 22 per cent), Robert Jenrick (48 per cent to 20 per cent), Kemi Badenoch (49 per cent to 20 per cent) and Mel Stride (48 per cent to 16 per cent). Those who voted Conservative in 2024 are more likely to prefer any of the candidates to Sir Keir but a high proportion of this group still answered “don’t know”.



One-third (33 per cent) of 2024 Tory voters said they did not know which of Sir Keir and Mr Jenrick would be better, rising to 36 per cent when asked about Sir Keir and Ms Badenoch. They were more likely to say they did not know who they preferred (48 per cent) rather than choosing between Sir Keir (16 per cent) and Mr Stride (37 per cent). Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, said: “Even accounting for having a natural advantage on this metric, this research shows that Starmer wipes the floor with all the prospective Conservative leaders on who the public thinks would make the best PM.

“Our research continues to suggest there isn’t who could win an election in the public’s eye – yet. “It also serves as a reminder that despite a , they’re only really at risk when the Conservatives get their act together. That certainly won’t happen until a new leader is in place, and isn’t a given even then.

” Mr Jenrick, a former immigration minister, topped the first ballot of Tory MPs last week. He beat Ms Badenoch, the shadow housing secretary, by six votes while . will seek to impress their colleagues at a hustings on Monday afternoon, before a second round of MP voting whittles the field down to four on Tuesday.

All four of the candidates who advance to the next stage will have the opportunity to address the party faithful at the annual Tory party conference at the end of this month. Two further votes among MPs will determine the final two candidates, who will then be subject to a ballot of Conservative members with the winner announced on Nov 2. Attendance for the annual conference is understood to be up by 20 per cent year-on-year, showing that grassroots activists are keen to hear from hopefuls before they have the final say.

Ms Badenoch now has the backing of , with 10 endorsements out of 29, while Mr Jenrick has three shadow cabinet backers and Mr Stride has one. Blake Stephenson, who as the new MP for Mid Bedfordshire represents one of just two Tory gains at in July, backed Mr Cleverly on Sunday. Writing for the Express, Mr Stephenson said that Mr Cleverly had an “unrivalled breadth of experience” and insisted the party would “start to see results” as soon as the local elections in May under his leadership.

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