It’s what Doug Ford leaves unsaid that counts against him

Canada’s tale of two Tories is still being written. Day by day, Pierre Poilievre keeps stumbling on the campaign trail. Day after day, Doug Ford looks sure-footed on the front lines of the tariff war.

The storyline is being dictated by an American president: Donald Trump is wreaking havoc on the factory floor, but he is also creating chaos for the floundering federal Conservative election machine. Which means that while autoworkers are getting layoff notices, Poilievre is also on notice about losing his own job. If his party misses its election targets on April 28, who will carry the Tory torch forward, post-election and post-Poilievre? Ontario’s premier has long been the most powerful Tory in Canada, as leader of the country’s most populous and prosperous province.



In truth, Ford has long coveted the country’s highest political office of prime minister. Will he now get his chance? If Poilievre falters on voting day, is the premier next in line to become the next federal Conservative leader? Not so fast. For all his fantasies, it’s hard to fathom Ford gaining traction across the nation.

To be sure, his fortunes are no longer limited to his roots in what he called Ford Nation — a parochial fan club inspired by the Leafs Nation . Today, Ford has found a new incarnation as Captain Canada, articulating rage on the national stage over Trump’s mistreatment of the country. Yet no matter how positive his profile at home, what plays well in Ontario doesn’t always resonate well in other parts of Canada.

Or in other parts of the Conservative base. There are good reasons for Ford’s increasingly high profile. But many more potential pitfalls.

First, he now helms the summit meetings of his fellow premiers as rotating chair of the Council of the Federation. That makes Ford the convener but also the conciliator who tries to find common ground across 13 provinces and territories. Second, Ford assumed that role at the very time that Justin Trudeau’s hold on his party and country was waning last year.

The premier moved into that vacuum of power and influence, lashing out against Trump in ways that a wounded Trudeau couldn’t. Third, Ford just keeps on winning. Despite his polarizing effect on progressive voters, the premier has won three consecutive majority governments, increasing his share of the popular vote each time despite the accumulated barnacles and boondoggles of holding power.

All that said, it’s what Ford leaves unsaid that counts against him — he can’t speak French. It’s not just that he can’t speak Canada’s other official language, it’s that he doesn’t talk the language of Conservative dogma. Of course, flawless bilingualism is no guarantee of success, as former Quebec premier Jean Charest discovered when losing badly to Poilievre in the last Tory leadership race.

It’s not so much fluency but fidelity to the Conservative cause and social conservatism that counts most. Despite their different styles, Ford is increasingly burdened by some of the same liabilities that dragged down Charest. For all his folksy idiosyncrasies, Ford is undeniably embedded in the establishment after nearly seven years in power.

And while Ford flirted with social conservatives during his own Progressive Conservative leadership campaign in 2018, he has distanced himself from anti-abortion evangelicals. Indeed, Ford likes to boast that he is post-partisan — less loyal to party orthodoxy and more mindful of broadening his voter pool to win re-election. He is also less fiscally conservative than most Conservatives might be comfortable with.

And while that free-spending, populist impulse to govern from the centre plays well in Central Canada, it’s a hard sell in the Prairies where right-wing voters gave birth to the Reform Party once upon a time. Poilievre’s problem is that he is fighting the last war by targeting a carbon tax that is now a footnote to history. Ford, however, is not frozen in time.

When the occasion demands it, he moves with the times and goes where the voters are — which may be going too far for hard-core Conservatives. The premier correctly identified Trump as the enemy and made the most of it in Ontario’s February election. He keeps making common cause with the governing Liberals in Ottawa, and the new federal leader, Mark Carney is following his provincial playbook to steamroller Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Ford opted for a broader voter coalition by seeking allies among labour leaders. Federal Conservatives prefer their comfort zone of ideological purity and social virtue rather than voter appeal. But the premier’s enhanced role has also reduced his margin of manoeuvre.

By speaking up for Ontario, he has also spoken out against the actions of his Alberta counterpart Danielle Smith, and the inaction of Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe. That did not go over well on the Prairies. Which means that Ford’s cross-over appeal, which crosses partisan lines in Ontario, may hurt him in any cross-country competition within the Conservative party.

Ford is not pure enough, he is not socially conservative enough and he is not fiscally conservative enough. The problem is not just that he seems too centrist. He is too Central Canada.

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