2 days Ago By Firstpost
The guns fell silent. The media was euphoric. The optics were excellent.
Donald Trump had achieved what Joe Biden couldn’t after the Hamas carnage and Israel’s devastating retaliation on October 7, 2023. On the eve of Trump’s second inauguration, Hamas handed three Israeli women hostages to the Red Cross after holding them captive for 471 days. The hostages were released under phase one of an elusive three-phased ceasefire of 42 days each brokered by Qatar and Egypt but led by Team Trump.
Hamas released 25 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of 8 dead ones. Israel freed around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners in return. Displaced Palestinians returned to their homes in north Gaza.
Hundreds of aid trucks were allowed into the enclave daily. Most importantly, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) pulled out of the enclave’s populated areas and the Netzarim Corridor—a military zone that divided north and south Gaza—and only remained in the border areas, including the southern Philadelphi Corridor. A hollow ceasefire with an Israeli-US plan The ceasefire was Trump’s The Art of the Deal moment.
His Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff had sealed the deal and Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu, who had dug their heels, were toeing Trump’s line. “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November..
.” he posted on Truth Social on January 15, the day Qatar announced the deal. However, a careful analysis of the ceasefire reveals that it was never intended to go beyond Phase 1.
Israel-Gaza ceasefire: Read the full text of the agreement ⤵️ The plan will see the release of both Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners over the coming weeks https://t.co/HeBz5CGwk8 Phase 2 depended on negotiations meant to start on Day 16 of Phase 1. Hamas was supposed to release the remaining hostages with Israel freeing more Palestinian prisoners in return.
Phase 2’s most contentious part was the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire— conditions Netanyahu would have never agreed to with Trump back in power. Trump got what he wanted from the ceasefire: limelight. Four episodes show that he colluded with Netanyahu with both leaders not bothered about the remaining phases.
First, before his inauguration and during Phase 1, Trump kept the option of reattacking Hamas open by threatening “hell” if the group didn’t release the remaining hostages. He threatened Hamas a third time after Phase 1 despite the release of 33 hostages. Second, both Trump and Netanyahu—and possibly Biden—kept the window open for resuming the fighting knowing that Phase 2 would not start.
On January 18, a day before the ceasefire was implemented, the Israeli PM said in a statement that Israel would resume fighting if “the second-stage negotiations are ineffectual”. “Both President Trump and President Biden have given full backing to Israel’s right to return to the fighting,” he said adding that Trump “rightly emphasised that the first stage of the agreement is a temporary ceasefire”. Third, Trump announced his outlandish plan to turn Gaza into a US-run “riviera of the Middle East” by displacing the 2.
1 million Gazans with a beaming Netanyahu by his side at the White House on February 4. He didn’t even rule out sending American troops to Gaza. Fourth, Trump is concerned only about the release of Edan Alexander and the bodies of four other American-Israeli hostages—Omer Neutra, Judi Weinstein Haggai, Gad Haggai and Itay Chen.
If he fails to bring them back, it will dent his image of a strong and uncompromising president. On March 4, Trump’s hostage envoy Adam Boehler engaged directly with Hamas about releasing Edan Alexander and the bodies of four other American-Israeli hostages in Doha. Boehler was ecstatic after the talks with Hamas, which, according to him, had proposed a five-to-10-year ceasefire and a full prisoner exchange.
He told Israeli public broadcaster Kan News that Hamas would eventually lay down arms and leave power in Gaza. He also told CNN ’s Jake Tapper on the State of the Union that “they’re [Hamas] actually pretty nice guys”. Boehler had riled Netanyahu’s hard-line ministers like strategic affairs adviser Ron Dermer and ultranationalist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose National Religious Party–Religious Zionism is part of the coalition.
Smotrich had threatened to resign if a ceasefire was reached and Netanyahu’s other coalition partner, Otzma Yehudit party chief and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, had quit on day one of Phase 1. Trump immediately sidelined Boehler. On March 10, secretary of state Marco Rubio said that Witkoff would lead the negotiations.
On the same day, Witkoff demanded a deadline for Hamas to depart Gaza with its arms indirectly tying it to an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Witkoff offered Hamas a new proposal on March 12 that proposed to extend the ceasefire for Ramazan and Passover (till April 20) and asked Hamas to release five living hostages and return the bodies of nine hostages in exchange for extending the truce. When Hamas, which instead stressed implementing Phase 2, rejected the offer, Israel stopped the aid trucks and halted electricity to Gaza.
On March 14, Hamas agreed to release Alexander and the bodies of four dual national hostages, in line with Boehler’s proposal. Israel rejected the offer as “manipulation and psychological warfare” and the US said that Hamas was “claiming flexibility”. Now, the US has offered another proposal to Hamas via Qatar similar to Witkoff’s which calls for Alexander’s release and a statement by Trump calling for resuming ceasefire talks.
However, Hamas’s military leader Mohammed Sinwar has rejected the proposal since it doesn’t offer anything concrete in return. Bibi’s survival, Trump’s Riviera and Hamas’s elimination What followed reveals a careful Israeli-US plan as “hell” was unleashed on Gaza. There are three aspects of the plan.
First, Israel resumed airstrikes on Gaza on March 18 killing more than 700 Palestinians, taking the toll to more than 50,000 since October 7, 2023. Thirty-six hours later, Israel launched a limited ground operation in north, central and south Gaza and to retake the Netzarim Corridor. Israel's prime minister is warning that resumed combat in Gaza will continue until all hostages are released.
More than 400 people have been killed in the ongoing airstrikes which were ‘fully co-ordinated' with the United States. @jacquelinrobson #7NEWS pic.twitter.
com/6ZKJdVgmJU Israel and the US blamed Hamas for the new assault, but extending Phase 1 wasn’t part of the ceasefire agreement. Israel also rejected an Egyptian ceasefire proposal post-airstrikes under which Hamas would release five living hostages, including Alexander, and Israel would halt fighting and allow aid trucks. After a week, Israel would implement Phase 2 of the earlier agreement, release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and withdraw completely from Gaza under a timeline.
Hamas, which agreed to the proposal, would release the remaining living hostages and bodies of the dead ones under a timeline. However, Israel favoured Witkoff’s March 12 proposal. Netanyahu said that the new offensive would continue until “total victory” is achieved over Hamas and the 59 remaining hostages—of which only 24 are alive—are released.
The Israeli PM has miserably failed to bring back the hostages despite the massive military operation in Gaza. Of the 251 hostages, several are dead. The IDF has been able to rescue only eight hostages alive.
The remaining hostages released alive by Hamas—33 this year, 105 in late November 2023 and 4 hostages before that—were only due to a short truce and Phase 1. The initial assault and the latest strikes were never about the hostages or Hamas. It was Netanyahu’s tactic for political survival.
The longest-serving Israeli PM knows it’s his last term. Although his Likud and alliance partners won only 48.4 per cent of the vote in the 2022 election, he still formed the government in alliance with the most extreme right-wing parties.
Netanyahu is highly unpopular with an Israel Democracy Institute earlier survey this month showing that 73 per cent of Israelis want him to resign either now or after the war and 87 per cent want him to take responsibility for the October 7 massacre. The PM wants to drag the war to ensure he serves his full term and possibly beyond. The next legislative election is slated for October 2026.
Israel postponed legislative elections in 1948 due to the Arab-Israeli War and in 1973 following the Yom Kippur War. Netanyahu is also embroiled in three corruption cases involving charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery—the first PM to take the stand as a criminal defendant in Israel’s history. He introduced a judicial reform Bill in January 2023 to weaken the Supreme Court triggering nationwide protests.
One year later, the Supreme Court struck the Bill down. On the day of the airstrikes, two incidents showed how the renewed attack favoured Netanyahu. First, his corruption trial hearing was postponed as the IDF pounded Gaza.
Second, hours after the airstrikes, Ben-Gvir rejoined the government. With Netanyahu’s coalition strength back to 68 seats, the Knesset passed the 2025 Budget on March 25. Failing to pass the Budget by March 31 would have triggered an early election.
Second, Trump approved the airstrikes, indicating that his Gaza “Riviera” plan, termed bizarre and shocking, is very much intact. In February, he told Fox News that relocated Palestinians wouldn’t have the right to return. Palestinians will have no right of return says Trump, with the excuse they’ll have better housing.
Better than the luxury real estate for Israelis/Jews/elite 1%? Doubt it. This is Ethnic Cleansing legalized & justifed as “humanitarian aid,” NO different than liberals. pic.
twitter.com/StHgqTF7Ph In the same month, in the presence of Jordan’s King Abdullah, Trump reiterated his plan of relocating Gazans. Witkoff told CBS News this month that the US was “exploring all alternatives and options” to relocate Gazans.
Moreover, the US and Israel rejected an alternative $53-billion plan proposed by Egypt and other Arab League that called for Gaza’s reconstruction without relocating Gazans in a clear indication of supporting Trump’s Riviera plan. Under the three-phase plan, $3 billion will be spent on building 200,000 temporary housing units and urgent relief operations in Phase 1 in six months to one year. In Phase 2, $20 billion will be spent on building 200,000 permanent housing units and re-establishing vital infrastructure in two years.
In the final phase, $30 billion will be spent on constructing another 200,000 permanent housing units and an airport and reconstructing ports in two years. According to the plan, an administrative panel comprising independent Palestinian technocrats will oversee the operations and administer Gaza for six months before the Palestinian Authority returns to rule the enclave. Rejecting the plan, the White House backed Trump’s contention that Gaza is uninhabitable and its “residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance”.
Israel said that the proposal “continues to rely on the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA. Both have repeatedly demonstrated corruption, support for terrorism and failure in resolving the issue.” Trump’s plan is being implemented gradually.
Israel plans to occupy the whole of Gaza and establish military rule in a few months by launching a massive ground invasion, according to an analysis in Haaretz . Netanyahu has warned Hamas of “seizing territory” in Gaza, including “other things”. Israeli PM Netanyahu, speaking at the Israeli Knesset, reiterates Israel's threat to seize parts of Gaza.
"The more Hamas persists in its stubbornness and refuses to release our captives, the stronger and harsher the pressure we will apply. And I say to you, members of the..
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com/rPaKLObOLB Israeli defence minister Israel Katz has warned Hamas that the IDF will be permanently deployed in Gaza if the hostages aren’t released. The IDF has been instructed “to seize additional areas in Gaza while evacuating the population and to expand the security zones around Gaza to protect Israeli communities and IDF soldiers through permanent maintenance of the territory by Israel”. Israel also plans to evacuate Gazans to the south, a clear signal of implementing the Generals’ Plan , designed by retired Major General and former National Security Council chief Giora Eiland in 2024 to pressure Hamas to release the remaining hostages.
The plan was presented to the Knesset by several retired Israeli Generals. Israel’s war tactics mirror the plan though the IDF didn’t officially adopt it. For example, Israel designated north Gaza as a combat zone and asked residents to evacuate on October 6, 2024, Under the plan, Gazans in the north would be evacuated, the area would be declared a military exclusion zone, the remaining population would be declared combatants and aid trucks would be barred.
Israel’s security cabinet has established a new administration in the defence ministry, as proposed by Katz, that will help Palestinians to “voluntarily” leave Gaza by land, sea and air for third countries. Moreover, the IDF has removed the designated “humanitarian zone” from its maps issued to Gazans and asked them to evacuate “recognised humanitarian shelters” in the enclave. The Generals’ Plan’s most important feature is Israel’s control over the north indefinitely, splitting Gaza into two and creating a new administration without Hamas, which will “either have to surrender or starve.
“People will not be able to live there. The water will dry up.” The idea is to deprive Hamas of money, manpower, supplies and motivation.
The complete siege would block the supply of medicine, fuel, food and water until Hamas surrendered. Third, Israel also wants to eliminate the Hamas political leadership to control Gaza. Unless Hamas politicians are killed, Israel can’t rule the enclave.
The IDF’s plan to assassinate senior Hamas politicians started in the war’s first year. These are the Hamas leaders who fled and who have been killed https://t.co/DuyjcvqsvT Hamas economy minister Jawad Abu Shamala, who managed the group’s finances in Gaza and overseas, was assassinated within a few days of the October 7 terrorist attacks.
Zakaria Abu Maamar, who headed Hamas’s national relations office within the political bureau, was killed the same day as Shamala. Osama Mazini, chairman of the Shura Council in Gaza and former education minister in the Hamas government, was eliminated in the early days of the war in 2023. In 2024, Rawhi Mushtaha, who headed the Gaza government and was Yahya Sinwar’s right hand, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
In the same year, Hamas Political Bureau chairman Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, his deputy Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut and Haniyeh’s successor and Gaza leader Sinwar in the enclave. Israel has killed, at least, four senior Hamas politicians/military strategists in the renewed assault. Former Hamas PM Essam al-Da’alis, justice ministry director general (DG) Ahmed Amar Abdullah Alhata, interior ministry DG Mahmoud Abu Watfa, Al-Da’alis’s successor Ismail Barhoum and Salah al-Bardawil, head of the planning and development ministry and led strategic and military planning.
Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua was the latest to have been killed in an Israeli airstrike. The changed IDF tactics are being implemented by new Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who replaced Herzi Halevi earlier this month and has Netanyahu’s trust. On the other hand, Halevi opposed the Generals’ Plan and agreed with former defence minister Yoav Gallant regarding the course of the war.
Bibi replaced Gallant with Katz, whose “total victory” strategy against Hamas was against Halevi’s thinking. The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer.
They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views..
