1 day Ago By Ethan Sears
You devote time and energy trying to put a finger on how the Islanders can turn the ship around. Simon Holmstrom’s had a quiet few games. Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov haven’t looked quite like themselves during this five-game losing streak.
Anthony Duclair has yet to emerge from his season from hell. And then you stumble upon a stat that states the obvious, and realize it might just be that simple. Ilya Sorokin, in nine games from March 1-21: 8.
88 goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey, with the Islanders 6-2-1 in those games, and losing the lone match started by Marcus Hogberg. Sorokin and Hogberg over the five games since, of which both have played in three: negative-6.03 goals saved above expected, with the Islanders winless.
Right. It’s the goaltending, stupid. “A couple saves he could have made, would have been the difference in that game,” coach Patrick Roy said after Hogberg struggled on Sunday against the Hurricanes, letting in six of 30 shots as the Islanders’ comeback effort fell short.
Hogberg, the backup since Semyon Varlamov got hurt on Black Friday, has struggled badly over three starts since returning from a hand injury earlier this month, with an .866 save percentage. Though Varlamov, out with a lower-body injury, doesn’t appear likely to return this season, the backup situation is a secondary concern to the Islanders with nine games left.
Sorokin, their workhorse, looks likely to start at least eight of the nine, with a back-to-back in New Jersey and Philadelphia on April 12-13 providing the only obvious window to sit him. And it’s Sorokin’s past two starts, in which he’s allowed four goals apiece and looked beatable, that are the biggest cause for concern. The Islanders don’t have the horses offensively to stay in this wild-card chase if their goaltending isn’t there.
They can maximize their offensive production and it won’t matter one bit, not with Mat Barzal out injured and Brock Nelson playing for the Avalanche. All told, the offensive production wasn’t a huge problem this weekend in Tampa and Carolina, with seven goals spread almost evenly between the two games. There’s issues, to be sure, and the power play is still one after it coughed up a shorthanded goal on Sunday.
But in a game where the power play actually scored, that was another moment where better goaltending would have gotten the Islanders out of a jam. “We gotta do a better job defending,” Roy said. “Making sure that we keep the score as low as possible.
” That, Roy said, “could maybe start with a couple saves.” Everyone can acknowledge that it’s less than ideal for the Islanders to be so dependent on their goalie, and that after offseason back surgery followed a down 2023-24 campaign, a workload that will almost certainly be over 60 starts isn’t what anybody planned for Sorokin. In an up-and-down season, it’s probable, if not likely, that Sorokin’s workload has also contributed to his low ebbs.
That was the case a year ago, and it doesn’t seem coincidental that Sorokin’s two best runs of the season came when he had adequate rest, with a strong January that coincided with Hogberg earning trust as the backup and a solid string of games in March after the 4 Nations break. Hogberg, who was signed as the third-stringer for the organization, has worked out relatively well, but for the second straight offseason, the Islanders will need to address their depth chart in net. Do they stick with Hogberg as the backup, put their faith in the oft-injured Varlamov or try and find a backup via trade or free agency? These questions, obviously, can’t be answered in time to impact their playoff chances this season.
For the next nine games, it’s going to have to be Sorokin, and it’s going to have to be the best version of him. Otherwise, the Islanders might as well fast forward to breakup day..
