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Six months into office, the odds appear stacked against Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Yet he has enjoyed what political observers describe as "weird" political stability, leaving them guessing whether it will become the new normal. Despite simmering frustration within the Liberal Democratic Party over Ishiba's leadership, the LDP, which lacks control of the House of Representatives, remains far from united, and no viable alternatives to him have emerged ahead of key elections this summer.
Opposition parties, meanwhile, have stepped up their criticism of his handling of the government but have stopped short of trying to replace him, as he has taken a cooperative, conciliatory approach toward them in policymaking. The last-minute enactment of a twice-revised state budget for fiscal 2025, which began Tuesday, marked a positive development for Ishiba's minority government. Still, Ishiba is expected to face a slew of challenges, including the formidable task of winning public support by bridging the gap between his own vision and voters' expectations, analysts say.
"Ishiba has not been trying to be unique or distinctive in terms of policy, instead taking a softer stance toward the opposition camp to reduce its resistance," said Hitoshi Komiya, a professor well versed in LDP politics and history at Aoyama Gakuin University. "His play-it-safe style is apparently paying off, making this unexpected state of stability possible," he said. "On the flip side, he has not rolled out policies that can capture the hearts and minds of ordinary people.
This will be a challenge heading into the upcoming House of Councillors election." Ishiba took office last October, vowing to refresh the ruling party's image, which had been damaged by a slush fund scandal that emerged under his predecessor. Soon after, the ruling coalition suffered a dismal result in the general election, losing its crucial majority in the powerful lower house.
Months later, his public support hit new lows after repeated policy reversals to appease opposition demands and a voucher-giving scandal of his own, which added to the LDP's woes. "The sole responsibility for the falling support rates lies with me," Ishiba said at a press conference, as he marks six months in office on Tuesday. "There is nothing I can do other than to seriously reflect on this and work to restore public trust.
" Ishiba, seen as a nonmainstream figure within the LDP, retained strong voter support before becoming prime minister. In parliament, he often opts to speak in his own words rather than rely on scripts prepared by bureaucrats. But when his distribution of gift vouchers worth 100,000 yen ($670) each to rookie lower house members of the LDP was revealed in early March, his public support tanked to 27.
6 percent, the lowest since he assumed office, a Kyodo News poll showed. People close to him said the only way to improve the situation is to "explain again and again and reflect on" the gift-giving, which Ishiba himself has acknowledged was "out of touch" with public sentiment. For his part, he appears intent on injecting fresh momentum into his push to revitalize regional areas -- long a stronghold for the LDP -- under his plan to "transform" the Japanese archipelago.
Nevertheless, some LDP lawmakers have voiced concern that the ruling party, with Ishiba as its public face, may not be able to win the upcoming upper house election. The most outspoken among them is Shoji Nishida, an upper house member who was close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ishiba's former rival. That has not, however, led to widespread calls within the ruling party or increased pressure on Ishiba.
His rivals in last year's LDP presidential race have criticized his administration's policy handling but have refrained from openly calling for his replacement. "Nobody wants to muster the courage and draw the short straw when the LDP is on course to losing seats in the upper house election. Staying silent is seen as wise for now," said Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University.
"The fact of the matter is, there are no powerful forces within the LDP following the disbandment of intraparty factions" due to scandals, he said, explaining why there are few signs that the anti-Ishiba camp is gaining strength. Major opposition parties, too, have been taking advantage of the situation, focusing more on policy coordination than confrontation. The Japan Innovation Party sided with the ruling bloc, made up of the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito, in passing the fiscal 2025 budget, after the three parties agreed to work toward making high school education free, a priority for the opposition party.
Another opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, secured a commitment from the ruling camp to raise the income threshold at which tax payments begin -- a step toward the DPP's goal of boosting household incomes. In the eyes of some political experts, such policy coordination across party lines signals the LDP's testing of various scenarios for the future shape of an expanded ruling coalition. Both the DPP and JIP have ruled out the possibility of joining the ruling coalition.
"Looking at how the ruling camp and opposition parties have been pursuing policy-by-policy coordination, the message seems to be that anything can happen. The prime minister may be trying to listen to what they have to say, but he risks appearing indecisive," Iwasaki said. For the rest of the 150-day regular Diet session until June, he will still be tested on divisive issues, including how strict the rules on corporate donations should be and whether to allow married couples to use different surnames.
Major parties, including Komeito, support changing the current single family-name system, although the idea has divided the conservative LDP, as some fear it would undermine traditional family values. "Is Mr. Ishiba going to ensure LDP unity and maintain the conservative support base, or will he warm to the opposition camp and make concessions?," Komiya said.
"I don't think he will become a risk-taker.".
