17 hours Ago
A soggy start to April lends some hope that drought conditions in the Lehigh Valley and southeastern Pennsylvania might finally improve. But it hasn’t happened yet.The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published its drought outlook for the month of April.
The map shows a strip along the Delaware River — including a portion of Northampton County — might be out of drought by the end of the month.Most of Lehigh County is expected to have persistent drought, although conditions might improve in the very southern portion of the county.NOAA/Climate Prediction CenterAll of Lehigh County and half of Northampton County remain in severe drought as of April 1, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
For now, all of Lehigh and half of Northampton counties remain in severe drought conditions, or D2, as climate scientists designate it. The remaining half of Northampton is in D1 — moderate drought. No part of Pennsylvania is in the two highest drought designations, and only about one-quarter of the state is in any form of drought.
The state has been unusually dry since June of last year.NOAA/Climate Prediction CenterNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts that part of eastern and northern Northampton County might exit drought conditions by the end of April, but severe drought will persist in most of Lehigh County.Hydrologists — those who study water above, on, in and under the ground — typically track precipitation, waterway and aquifer conditions according to the water year, not the calendar year.
A water year runs from Oct. 1 through the following Sep. 30.
Tracking conditions that way more closely comports with seasonal weather patterns and how water systems are replenished by snow and rain.When you look at Allentown’s rainfall since the beginning of the 2025 water year, which is half over, it’s easy to see why the Lehigh Valley is still in drought.Local precipitation is at only 63% of the 30-year average for the first six months of the water year.
March was the only month that beat the average, and it did so by only 5 percent. The region is 7.7 inches behind the average for the water year.
The following three charts show waterflow for the Lehigh River in Bethlehem, the Jordan Creek in Allentown, and Lehigh County’s observation well in Macungie — all since Oct. 1, the start of the 2025 water year.The Jordan Creek shows more extreme spikes in its waterflow because a larger portion of its discharge comes from storm drains in developed areas, which deliver rainfall to the stream in real time, rather than seeping through the soil.
The slowest movement can be seen in the observation well depth, which relies on water percolating through the soil to the water table below before it is recorded.The National Weather Service predicts moderate rain over the next several days, which is not expected to total more than a half-inch..
