2 weeks Ago By Steven Lemongello
Montana’s U.S. Senate seat appears to be slipping away from Democrats, and with it could go control of the chamber.
So party leaders and donors might be forced to turn their desperate eyes to another state: Florida. Florida’s Democratic challenger for the Senate, former U.S.
Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has been within striking distance of Republican U.S.
Sen. Rick Scott in recent polls, so she is looking to some like a stronger candidate than embattled Democratic U.S.
Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. But a strategic shift to Florida, the third largest state in the country, would require considerably more money than making a play in Montana.
And donors may still feel burned after giving millions of dollars to Florida Democrat Val Demings in 2022, only to see her blown out while the party lost narrow races elsewhere. “I do think it’s a winnable race for Democrats,” said Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami. “But at this point, it would take a real campaign blitz .
.. It’s hard for a Democratic candidate to develop a name brand across a very large and expensive state.
” So far, Florida does not look like a top priority of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee based on money raised, but the committee insists it is as much a priority as any battleground state. “There are pythons more popular than Rick Scott’s plan to ban abortion and sunset Medicare and Social Security,” said committee spokeswoman Maeve Coyle, referencing Scott’s plans to “sunset” all legislation after five years. “Scott’s unpopularity .
.. makes Florida one of Senate Democrats’ top offensive opportunities.
” Monday, the committee said it planned to spend $25 million to contact voters directly in 10 states, including Florida, though a state-by-state breakdown was not released. Committee Chair Gary Peters told the Christian Science Monitor on Tuesday that many states, including Florida, are in play and decisions about spending “are likely to evolve.” Koger said if spending does ramp up in Florida, voters likely would know it by a barrage of television ads, both because it’s what Mucarsel-Powell needs and because it’s too late in the game to invest in get-out-the-vote measures .
“Time is running out,” Koger said. “Name recognition is what she needs the most.” Florida may also have to contend for Democratic dollars with another large and expensive state, Texas, where polls have shown Republican U.
S. Sen. Ted Cruz in a closer-than-expected race as well.
“In a vacuum, Democrats might not want to go into those states, just because they’re very costly,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. “But it might be getting to the point where they really just have no other alternative.
” Democrats currently hold 51 out of 100 seats in the Senate. But the party is expected to lose the West Virginia seat held by retiring U.S.
Sen. Joe Manchin. To retain control, Democrats need to hold on to every one of their seats up for election and see Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House, as then her vice president would serve as the Senate tie breaker.
Tester, first elected in 2006, has long parlayed his self-described “dirt farmer” persona into electoral wins in a very red state. But he is behind in some recent polls by as much as 8 points to his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy. “It doesn’t look like he can win, from the most recent polling,” said Christopher Muste, a professor of political science at the University of Montana.
By comparison, Scott, a former Florida governor, had just 1- and 3-point leads in some September polls, though another gave him a 5-point lead. Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to Scott, said in an email the campaign “is taking the race seriously, as we have from the beginning,” but it is also confident. Despite the “wish-casting of liberal activists,” Hartline said, national Democrats increasing their spending on Mucarsel-Powell would be “akin to lighting that money on fire.
” Scott has raised $30 million so far to Mucarsel-Powell’s $14 million. In his 2018 campaign, Scott raised $84 million — including $63 million of his own money — compared to then Democratic U.S.
Sen. Bill Nelson’s $33 million. The Mucarsel-Powell campaign has been barnstorming across the state, including rallies this week in Orlando and West Palm Beach, but only recently launched its first general election ad.
“Florida is in play and Rick Scott is running scared,” said Mucarsel-Powell campaign manager Ben Waldon in an email. The problem with Florida, Koger said, is that Democrats “would have to be willing to make a large bet in order for it to pay off.” “If I was a rich donor trying to swing elections towards the Democrats, smaller states do offer better return on investment,” Koger said.
“The media markets are much cheaper.” Five of Florida’s ten media markets are among the biggest and most expensive in the country, while Montana has none in the top 100. In addition, Montana has about 752,000 total registered voters.
Orange County alone, just one of Florida’s 67 counties, has about 824,000. But the money poured into Tester’s campaign, $44 million so far, is more than three times the $14 million that Mucarsel-Powell has raised. This is despite Montana airwaves being “saturated,” Muste said.
“We’re up to our ears in commercials.” Even more of a quandary for Democrats is that the next-best option after Florida to pick up a GOP Senate seat is Texas, an even bigger state. Democrat Colin Allred trailed Cruz in Texas by 2 points in two August polls.
If he had to choose, Jim Henson, director of The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, would tell the national Democrats to put their money in the Sunshine State, in part because no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in 30 years. “It’s harder to make the argument that Texas isn’t a lost cause than it is in Florida,” Henson said. “You have something to work with.
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National donors might have a little more faith in the infrastructure there.” Ultimately, Coleman said, the Senate committee may focus on Montana because Tester is the incumbent. “At the end of the day, their main job is to defend their members,” Coleman said.
Still, Muste said, Tester “has won three elections where people said, ‘He’s going to lose, how can he win?’ And he did.”.
